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Israeli Withdrawal From Gaza Has Implications For Internal Politics

Angelique van Engelen - 7/26/2005

The much disputed Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and four settlements in the West Bank is rapidly becoming an issue that people are using to recycle years' worth of violence and political tensions into. Events in the Middle East tend to succeed one another in quicker a fashion than most political twists and turns you can digest compared to, for instance, Europe or even the US, but this does not take away any of their validity. All the more so because the drama simply doesn't get hollowed out but, on the contrary, more extreme.

Both in the relatively safe political spheres and on the ground, the ordered removal of over 8,000 homes to other areas is already likely going to be the event of the Decade in the Middle East. Months later, we saw Israeli politicians put their heads on the line to effect the redeployment. Moves, counter moves, Machiavellian developments have taken place and of course the never ending comparisons to Second World War situations were blown new life into endlessly as well.

The celebrations, in a largely misplaced scorning style of the Palestinians, has at all levels been rather too intense not to classify as infuriating even though it was totally anticipated that the move would be politicized as well as taken as a real tangible end of war like defeat of the Israeli oppressors by the Palestinian population.

Both sides' plunge into rhetoric and counter-rhetoric has been rather destructive and, at the same time, violence has seen a temporary upsurge too. Over a dozen Palestinians and six Israelis have been killed since the militants began firing the rockets at Israeli targets early July. In the process, the fragile peace between the two sides was broken, when the Israeli army attacked and killed seven Palestinians in a helicopter attack ordered by the Minister of Defense Shaul Mofaz. At the moment, Israeli armored vehicles are deployed along the border with the Gaza Strip, also to maintain some kind of order in the Israeli ranks.

The events preceding the withdrawal somewhat coincided with the second round of real democratic elections in Gaza and the participation of Hamas for the first time has been an issue that - besides the natural controversy involved with a former terrorist grouping coming to the surface - has had immediate implications on how the move is taken by the Palestinian population at large. It appears that the Hamas movement has even more to play for in working on the Palestinian population's sentiment and gaining in popularity.

Even though most Israelis support the Gaza pullout, opponents say the land captured in the 1967 Middle East war is a gift from God and giving it up would reward the Palestinians for violence. They are prepared to go some way to make themselves heard. Thousands were recently banned by the Israeli authorities from staging a rally around Gush Katif, the main settlement planned for vacating this August. Nevertheless, many protesters managed to defy the ban and marched on Gaza settlements, throwing up human blockades against the pullout. They have vowed that over the next few months, a lot more such action will be seen. So far, no real casualties have been reported in the rallies, but analysts say the tensions are beginning to spiral out of control and the right wing has not promised not to confront the authorities both in Gaza and in the northern West Bank.

There have been many political casualties, especially in Israel, but the developments of recent months are likely to have a long lasting impact on general politics on all sides, not least internally. In the Palestinian camp, there has been a 'widening', to use a euphemism, between the ruling Fatah and the Hamas grouping who are planning to share the power as of next year. For the time being, one finishing round of the municipal elections in Palestine has been planned for the end of September. This will mark the third round of the elections and include some re-casts in several stations, ordered by the courts. Hamas enjoys a surging street popularity and has put up a strong showing in the first and second stages of the municipal elections, posing a major challenge to Fatah in the legislative election scheduled in January 2006. What the precise background is to recasting the votes, isn't immediately clear, but tensions between the two groupings are still at tantamount highs.

Recently, Mahmoud Abbas used force against Palestinian militants for the first time, a move that earned him respect no doubt from the international community, but also put in place the Hamas leadership. There was outright violence between Palestinian National Authority security forces and Hamas fighters (or the Islamic Resistance Movement) in Northern Gaza, according to eye witnesses. Apparently, some seven Palestinians attempting to launch rockets at Israeli targets were injured in clashes that took place near the refugee camp of Jabalia between members of the Hamas armed wing of Al-Qassam Brigades and the PNA security forces. Shortly afterwards, the Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmad Qurei could announce that the two sides had reaffirmed their commitment to the power-sharing agreement and that the crisis between the PNA and Hamas was over. Apparently, the agreement reached between the two parties amounted to a reiteration of their commitment to the Cairo agreement, signed four months earlier and which also included clearing gunmen off the streets as well as a ban on gatherings by Fatah and Hamas partisans throughout the Gaza Strip. All conditions rather vital for a smooth transfer of power.

Might the Palestinians go through a period of determining more closely what kind of democracy they are developing into, the Israeli right wing is resorting to rather alarming tactics too and is feared to have some clout. So far, they are trying to directly influence the army officers and soldiers employed to manage the deployment. Now that it has sunk in on both sides that the withdrawal is undeniably taking place, after the last attempts by right-wing political parties to delay the move have once again been botched in a voting session in the Israeli parliament, one major hurdle on the road to peace might be overcome - at least in theory. The focus of the extremist action will likely be on the army. At least one high ranking officer has publicly refused to participate and in recent mass rallies, two conscripts were talked in to crossing over to the protestors' side. The leadership of the army now fears that the closer the August 17 evacuation date comes, the more defections will be seen.

Upon completion of the withdrawal, the Palestinians will demand some associated reassurances before they will likely consider themselves 'freed' from occupation. The PNA Minister of Civil affairs Mohammad Dahlan summed up the demands to be met before his camp will consider the Israeli occupation definitely terminated. First, Israel must relinquish control of the borders between Gaza and the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula; Second, the PNA must have unfettered control of the seaport and international airport in Gaza; Third Israel must establish a "safe passage route" or over-land corridor linking Gaza Strip to West Bank.

The international community has been involved in the last point. Several transport plans are drawn up, aiming to facilitate the greater economic viability that is needed when the Palestinian state will have a greater chance to come into its own. The connecting ways between the Gaza strip and the West Bank are the major target. Two concrete proposals are on the table, that will at the same time ensure Israeli security and Palestinian movement of goods and people, according to the Palestinian minister of planning, Ghassan Khatib.

Apparently, high tech "sunken roads", tunnel like creations, dug five meters below the surface with concrete walls are proposed by some international negotiators. The roads are planned to be likely used for traffic and possibly a railway and pipelines for water and electricity. Such construction should allow for the movement of Palestinians and at the same time cause no danger to Israeli security.

It would take over one year to build the roads, and this is a major drawback. A backup plan is to ship even more high tech equipment to vital crossing points which enables the authorities to scan an entire cargo without human inspection. This is aimed at improving security. Future political discourse is likely to be centered on the transition routes between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and despite the total absence of official peace talks, one might say that real, tangible progress is being booked, despite the upsurge in violence.

"Whatever is decided upon, the integrity of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank as one territory, which can be facilitated only by ensuring the free movement of goods and people between the two, is vital for the future economic prospects of a Palestinian state and therefore vital for the prospects of peace", says Khatib.