Home >> South Asia >> India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal

     Email   Print 

Iran - Pakistan - India Pipeline Under Attack Before It´s Even Built

Angelique van Engelen - 7/26/2005

Pipelines traversing international territories often get played up at moments as opportune as their location is strategic. You wonder why so far international terrorists haven't really cottoned on to this, because an attack on one of the pipelines would not be misplaced in any analytical study on how terrorists conduct their acts of barbarism. An attack on a major oil or gas pipeline might not be as outlandish as it sounds, but in fact might be rather logical.

Last weekend's high profile bickering over the 2,670km gas pipeline that is supposed to run from Iran through Pakistan to India might set the scene rather perfectly. Plans for the gas pipeline do not have US approval because they involve Iran. Iran is setting a high price to transport gas to India, which in turn could be suspected of using whatever trick in the school book to negotiate a bargain price as well as safe passage through Pakistani territory. Pakistan isn´t a natural ally to India. Iran in the meantime, is keeping the price of its export product artificially high, which might have made the Indians extra cuddly to the US recently.

As a matter of fact, the Baloch province in Pakistan which the pipeline is crossing is the active target of the Baloch Liberation Front, which over the past six months has launched a number of attacks on major gas exploiting businesses.

On the face of it, the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's comments in Washington last weekend undermined the pipeline project in ways that make you wonder if this man's senses might have departed from him, safe to please the US administration, which strongly objects to the new line. Saying that the pipeline is ´fraught with risks´ might normally have passed for a realistic assessment of any plan for a pipeline passing through three countries, but the Indian PM´s subsequent claim that he wasn't sure that the financing of the pipeline would actually come off, left less doubt that the Indian intentions are inspired by a real life motive. Most likely it involves something on the agenda of the ongoing negotiations between the three countries involved. Which is not to say that the safety concerns surrounding the pipeline aren´t unsettling and of paramount concern to India.

The Balochistan-Punjab border, where the pipeline is supposed to run has been under a series of attacks over recent months. It is one of Pakistan's poorest areas and it includes a bulwark of private militias belonging to Baloch tribes. Fighting is concentrating on the province´s most vital assets, namely water pipelines, power transmission lines and gas installations. Once the international pipeline will come on stream, Pakistani officials say they won´t be able to guarantee the safety of the network. The background of the attacks is poverty mostly. The Baloch tribes that have taken up arms have hardly seen a penny in return for the depletion of their resources and are rather miffed about this toward the Islamabad regime. It is a known fact that the tribes oppose any energy projects in their area.

The Pakistani press quotes national officials saying that the motivating factor behind the Indian PM´s comments is the desire to dictate favorable pricing from Iran. At the same time however, Islamabad is not willing to offer safety guarantees that match up to international standards. The Iranians have confirmed in the meantime that India is playing for lower gas prices. Which is also likely the case. India is complaining that Iran is not offering any subsidies on the gas that will be transported through the pipeline to India upon completion of the project. That is not really a 'done' thing in many such projects, where deals are worked out on both ownership structure and issues such as territory crossed. As such, the Indians are bargaining a deal that is in need of tough negotiating. But perhaps they need to negotiate as hard to ensure their gas reaches them safely too.

Coincidingly, the comments made in Washington reveal the wider international implications of the pipeline venture. They follow in the wake of the nuclear power deal between India and the US, the terms under which the US transfers technology necessary for India's civilian nuclear energy program in exchange for meaningful constraints on its weapons program. Both parties proclaim that the deal is consistent with India's declared policy of wanting to have only a "credible minimum deterrent." Contentious words. But the deal has nevertheless been described as just about the best example of how selectively and unilaterally, without much regard for rules that apply to everyone, Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) matters are treated by the US administration, itself the architect of the treaty.

This development does not really signal a change in US or Indian policy. The Indians managed to get on the right side of the US policy makers seven years ago by pointing out the greater dangers of China, an assertion the US subscribed to then and has continued to do so. The NPT allowed for a nation like China to develop its weapons arsenal rather easily well ahead of India. India however has been told to get out of the international club. The rationale for the US not to insist that India join the NPT as a non-nuclear-weapon state is seen as a strategic ploy. "The US has, for much of the past seven years, tried to work out a genuine compromise", writes Strobe Talbott, president of the Brookings Institution in a recent article. No wonder the NPT – originally an American idea that depends on unstinting American support – is in jeopardy. And no wonder the world has been watching warily to see how the US handles India and other outliers of the NPT", he adds.

Whatever the US' intentions in assisting India with the new technology, they either are failing to be effected or they really are -as Indian officials have been saying over recent days- 'disconnected' from the oil pipeline. Much tension though the bickering has caused, the pipe line is not likely to be soon abandoned altogether. Rather, the 'negotiations [with Pakistan and Iran are continued] which at present are at preliminary stage', according to India's Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar. He says that what is discussed are financial, technical, commercial, legal and related issues to the pipeline.

The increase in safety concerns -largely Pakistan's prerogative- will however draw more attention to the pipeline than many others, especially since Pakistan is accounted for as a hotbed of all sorts of terrorist groups, who even only to practice would be very prone to this kind of target.

It has emerged from the tri-partite negotiations that Iran is unwilling to cut down on the ultimate delivery price, which is higher than the prices it charges the home market. All is really not without its risks - rumors indicate that the international consortium involved in the deal has withdrawn its support from the USD7.4 billion costing pipeline and that plans are in the making to replace the usual host of international underwriters with the gas ministries of the countries involved. This would not be unique in the gas world, but it does signal a lack of trust. So even though the Indians are now saying that the US has not asked them to abandon the plan by any means. But the parameters for alternative situations have certainly been set.