Home >> Middle East >> Syria & Lebanon

     Email   Print 

Lebanon's Search for Stability

Manuela Paraipan - 9/19/2005

The UN investigator, the German State Prosecutor, Detlev Mehlis is scheduled to visit Damascus in September with the task of questioning several Syrian officials who might have been involved directly or indirectly in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafiq Al Hariri.

President Bashar al-Assad, Republican Guard commander Maher al-Assad, and Manaf Tlass, a head of the Republican Guard, agreed to meet Mehlis and offer their support in the investigation. Detlev Mehlis also hopes to question both Ghazi Kanaan and Rustom Ghazali, who were in charge of Lebanon from 1982 till this year.

In the last two years, Damascus's policy towards USA was a very elusive one. It challenged US interests regarding the Palestinian/Israeli conflict, the establishment of a pro-Western regime in Baghdad, the isolation of Iran and the disarming of Hezbollah. Syria obviously did not want to confront the United States directly, but it did find the necessary tactics to infuriate the White House. Bush administration often advised Syria to better guard its border with Iraq, to stop the extremist insurgents from infiltrating into the country. Syria's response was that it could not protect the entire Iraqi borders, which are over 800 kilometers, because it lacks the financial, military and technological means for such a mission. The regime from Damascus agreed to support the coalition efforts in terms of intelligence, and it did so to a certain extent, but it did not go all the way through. A Syrian official quoted by Al Quds Al Arabi said: "Even if Syria had these means, it is not its duty to provide protection to the America's loser, bloody project in Iraq. The American administration did not consult Syria before it sent its troops and bombers and soldiers to occupy Iraq, so it cannot blame it for not cooperating to face the resistance. Syria cooperated with Bush's administration in the war against terror, and protected the lives of Americans, as admitted by this administration. But cooperating with the war on terror is one thing, and cooperating to stop a legitimate resistance against an illegitimate and immoral occupation is another thing."

The Syrian President Bashar al Assad has chosen to skip the UN General Assembly meeting in New York as the probe into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri seems to encircle Damascus's regime. Another reason might have been related with his fear of having a coup at home while being away. Apparently, some of the Baathists are not very content with President Assad's decisions over Lebanon, decisions that put Syria under the international spotlight.

On the other hand, the long-time military presence and political interference of Damascus in Lebanon could not have been possible without the complicity of some of the Lebanese key political figures. Politicians who after Hariri's assassination switched sides have been among the beneficiaries of the Syrian hegemony, together with the Syrian Baathists. Therefore, if a system change is a must in Syria, in Lebanon there should also be changes within the system.

But, after the difficult experience of Iraq, there is little chance (although, not impossible) that Bush administration would seek a regime change in Damascus by itself. The alternative is to either support dissents, like Farid Ghandry, the leader of the Reform Party of Syria or others who are inside the system, but have a different vision for the future of Syria. Ghadry is proposing to set up a provisional parliament in exile to negotiate a transition out of Baathism, while trying to avoid the mistakes already done in Iraq by the US-led Coalition. It is early to be said at this point, whether his lobby for a broad political reform inside Syria will be successful or not. The important thing is the existence of alternatives to the present regime.

There is little doubt, if any that Lebanon's security and intelligence apparatus together with their Syrian partners were involved in the assassination of Rafiq Al Hariri. The only unanswered question is how high the UN investigation has actually arrived?

There are rumors in Lebanon that President Assad will try to pull off a deal with the UN investigator, in order to escape the hook in Hariri's case. But, even if this were to happen, few of his closest aids will take the blame. There is no way Damascus can escape with a clean face from this ugly affair, an affair most likely they planned and instrumented.


A lonely President

President George Bush has invited Lebanon's Prime Minister Fuad Siniora but not its President, to a reception in New York after the UN Assembly meeting. This is a clear sign that President Emile Lahoud is being internationally isolated as calls for his resignation rise inside Lebanon. The diplomats said President Bush had invited Prime Minister Fuad Siniora and the Foreign Lebanese Minister to his reception, indicating that the decision was aimed at putting pressure on Lahoud and not on the government of Lebanon.

If the Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt relentlessly asks for President Lahoud resignation, PM Siniora has chosen a more neutral stand, although he seems to agree that Lahoud should have the decency to seek the benefit of the Lebanese people, not only his own and resign. "This issue is to be settled in Lebanon and, consequently, it is up to him to decide or not according to his assessment," Siniora told reporters during a recent visit to Egypt.

Siniora said: "It is not logical to think that the four security chiefs acted independently. ... It seems that a force controlling the four generals asked them to take part in the planning and execution." Prime Minister added that Melhis's investigation would show whether the guiding force behind the four generals was Lebanese or not. Regarding the characteristics of the next President to follow Lahoud, Siniora said he should "protect the unity of Lebanese and protect its independence." The resignation of President Lahoud if it will actually take place could further increase the political influence of the old guard made of Nabih Berri, Hassan Nasrallah, Jumblatt and others who are the symbol of the political, social and economic feudalism.

As Safir reported that in a meeting held in Paris between MP Saad Hariri, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and US Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey Feltman, Jumblatt renewed the opposition support for the UN 1559, and that after the investigation in Hariri's case will be closed, the presidency matter has to be seriously taken in consideration by all parties.


The United States viewed the cedar revolution of Lebanon as a step toward full democratizing Lebanon and disarming Hezbollah. Moreover, the financial and political international support will be further provided only if Hezbollah will either dismiss its guerilla, which is unlikely or put the guerilla under the command of the Lebanese army. But even if they agree to take this step, it will merely be an act of cosmetising the reality. Regardless of how much pressure the international community will put on the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, the armed wing will continue unhindered its activities as long as Israel will be perceived as a threat.

Hezbollah is the main representative of the Shiia Lebanese community, which for a long time has been put in shadow by their fellow citizens Sunni and Christians. But, as Dr. Habib Malek emphasized: "A widespread misconception abroad is that Hezbollah and the Shiias are one and the same. They are not. Hezbollah is important in the Shiia community, but it is not the Shiia community." The UN team investigating Hariri's assassination publicly declared that the Lebanese president "was not a suspect." President Lahoud has strongly denied every time he had the opportunity his personal involvement in ordering or planning the assassination. But, having his closest allies being indicted will certainly not boost President Lahoud's popularity. Nonetheless, the Lebanese and the international community should be aware of the fact that the four arrested generals represent the political and security structure that ruled the country in the last three decades based on a Lebanese-Syrian agreement, which at first had the US and Saudi Arabia blessing. This agreement had been based on the confessional, political and economical interests of the warlords who once again played the winning card and are now part of the opposition. It was not enough for the Lebanese to go out in the streets asking for independence, sovereignty and democracy if those who represent them in the Parliament and Government do not truly believe and respect these values.