Home >> Middle East >> Iran

     Email   Print 

Black Box Features In The Iranian Nuclear Arena - Manifest On A Laptop

Angelique van Engelen - 11/14/2005

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board meets on November 24 to decide whether to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions and the international community is fraught with tension in the run up to the meeting. Iran and the US appear to be equally matched participants in the media circus surrounding the Iranian nuclear situation. There's not a lot of certainty about the claims and counter claims that are being made presently, but nevertheless it's slowly becoming possible to get a clear idea of what's going to dominate in the near future.

By now it's really clear for instance that the US is rather seriously convinced that the Iranians are developing a nuclear capacity that involves weaponry and is taking this very seriously. Numerous allegations to this effect have been made, but last weekend's report in the New York Times quoting unnamed US intelligence officers as saying that there's evidence that the Iranians are likely well underway to create weapons has been the strongest. Apparently, they got the information from a stolen laptop computer from Iran. Various sources close to the IAEA and the CIA have reported conflicting things, likely indicating the hype's still stronger than any actual events, but the overall take is that it's highly serious. Some US officials are not really 100% sure about the data but had a sense it was strongly pointing in the direction of a weapons program with believe it or not real code names referring to a 'black box', which people say can only be a nuclear warhead. The Iranians say these allegations are ridiculous and that they never even use laptops for storing top secret information and that the US is out to poison the atmosphere at the upcoming meeting. It's the standard reaction by the Iranians - denying and assigning blame.

Just how much truth there is in either the Iranian or the US comments, is still rather hard to make out. The Iranians, having been in negotiations with the Europeans for the past two years are of course a different group of people. Even internally within the Iranian political top there's been a lot of uncertainty as Ahmadinajad's presidency has been bumpy from the beginning and reporting lines have given rise to unclarity. But it seems that the Iranians have continued on with the theme that had been dominating the last two years that Iran really is sticking to its program come what may. As if it is willfully out to take on the bigger powers of the world - the US and the UN. It has always been difficult to imagine what to read into the Iranian way of handling its nuclear program, what to slag off as speculation and what is totally inspired by the opponents seizing upon convenient news items.

Last month's speech by Ahmadinejad at the United Nations presented such a situation. The new president came across as overly buoyant or sharp and the next minute news circulated that the US had managed to get the board of the IAEA on its hand, supporting it to refer Iran to the Security Council. Was this coincidence? Even though in the world of diplomacy everything is about timing, the little provocations by US officials might as well be a means to test the ground. The US has often indicated -not in so many words but mind you nevertheless quite clearly- that it does not have any wishes to get on the speed track with Iran.

It appears that it is on all levels trying to get a sense of the new leadership of the country. Never missing an opportunity to discredit Iran internationally and slowly getting to the phase in which it can be envisaged just how to rattle the country out of its weapons. Keeping up the tension, making sure that there's a permanent string of comments from the new leadership. Getting to know typical responses. Gauging how fanatic fanatic is. Standing back and being amazed at the display of fanaticism. Drawing attention to it. Condemning some more. All the while taking pictures. Of all the new guyz donning the headscarves. Finding out what's with the German looking rimless glasses. Comparing them to the Iraqis. Deciding they're totally different bunch. Way less mad. Way less joyful. Way more cunning. Sophisticated. Sly. Defyant. Scary. Ahmadinejad as well as a leader of an ultra conservative party does somewhat fancy himself nevertheless. He's even appropriated an item of clothing into his personal aura - the Ahmadinejad jacket is a casual beige blazer, which forms a stark contrast with ordinary suits.

However when it matters, it appears that the US inspired concerted action is highly to the point and perhaps razor sharp even. Calculated yet rational action, based on the repeated assertions by the Iranian leader that he's not planning to give in to Western pressure in terms of foreign policy. His comments that Israel ought to be wiped from the map no doubt contributed the most to this no risks taken treatment. This is further underpinned by the Iranian defiance of all IAEA rules to hold off the process of uranium conversion. Ahmadinejad ordered the facility in Isfahan to be reopened and soon will start uranium enrichment in the neighbouring Natanz plant.

The US administration has shown repeatedly it does not gamble when it suspects there's a graveness to a situation. It would not like to be around a nuclear capable Iran, that's for sure. That is one fact which is reflected in its treatment of the situation, however off the mark it might be. Sources quoted by Reuters say that the CIA and the IAEA have since last July been collaborating on their mutual findings -notably those on stolen laptop that the CIA had acquired- but that they did not necessarily have anything to corroborate Iran on just yet. Nevertheless, the sounds coming from sources close to the situation both in Europe and the US believe that the information found on the laptop amounted to over 1,000 pages, reflecting an effort to develop a nuclear warhead.

From the way the US side of things is going, it is more than obvious that Iran is going to be indicted. It's only a matter of time. US officials appear to be convinced they will find something that will warrant some type of action, no doubt. Even now, in the total absence of any firm evidence, U.S. officials are going on the record saying their evidence suggests that Iran is definitely secretly building weapons of mass destruction, and what's more the US is calling on the international community saying its hunch strengthens the case for international pressure on Tehran to end the programme. Just like that. No further qualifications. As if the Iraq debacle simply hasn't happened.

In the meantime, the National Council of Resistance of Iran reports the location of another site where the country is supposedly creating nuclear missiles. This time to copy missiles they reportedly bought from Ukraine, by means of reverse engineering. Yet, there's evidence that the US government is actively involved in sponsoring Iranian nationals to give this kind of evidence and it's not confirmed that any nuclear weapons from the Ukraine did in fact arrive in Iran.

Iranian spokesmen have said they will retort with measures banning all access of the international weapons experts on Iranian ground if Iran's case is referred to the U.N. Security Council. But experts say Ahmadinejad is simply inexperienced and that he will budge at some point. But so far there no sign of this. Even though Iran finds itself in a quandary by having failed to convince not only the US but also France Britain and Germany, the countries that have been most closely involved in negotiating out-of-country uranium enrichment, that it really is not going to produce weapons and that all of its nuclear facilities are solely going to be generating clean cheap and above all safe electricity, the Iranians show no sign of fear. Experts say the West is banking on Ahmadinejad to take the Russians up on their offer at the last minute, following some intense international pressure. Why they believe this is unclear. Is it because the Iranians are still not changing their rhetoric? Do they believe that the Iranians would be more serious if they infused some more substance into the circuit? Who knows. Let's hope everybody bets right.