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Maoists Face a Tough Electoral Contest in Nepal

Bhuwan Thapaliya - 7/3/2006

Past several years have been of great political instability in Nepal as en masse defections became the order of the day. Once again the nation is standing on the live wire of political uncertainties as the Maoists plan to rake up the political issue to counter all parties in a desperate move to gain its political ground.

But the United States of America plans to checkmate the Maoists on their own game plan with its ambassador to Nepal, announcing that US won't support an interim government in Nepal—including the Maoists—unless the latter renounce violence.

The US envoy, James F. Moriarty, said CPN (Maoist) was still recognized by US law as a terrorist organization and that the US couldn’t provide material support to a terrorist organization.

“We do believe that they (the Maoists) have to change their action before we could provide assistance to the Maoists in any way or to a government, which they will be part of,” he added.

After Moriarty’s speech, most political observers are sensing these two possibilities: a) far sighted and principled response that offers a significant elucidation of the political and legal course to the resolution of the political dispute. B) America setting up a mouse trap for the Maoists.

While the ambassador’s speech is being considered in political circles as an open revolt against the Maoists continuing atrocities, most observers are condemning his decision and termed it as American intervention. Meanwhile, the reaction of the Mr. Moriarty’s speech, in fact, appears to be the Government’s main worry.

Having painstakingly prepared the ground over the last few months in bringing the Maoists to the fore to checkmate the King, the political parties are now faced with harsh reality that the Maoists repeated exhortations to the political parties’ plight – they should not fall to Maoists trap – may not carry well with the political seers.

The revival of the American counterattack would effectively put the issue on the back –burner with almost all sections aware that there would not be an immediate verdict on it.

Moreover, the already flayed Maoists once again appear to be caught between the devil and the deep sea. The ambivalent political party regarded yet by the US as the terror organisation, which was still in heating process following the International condemnation of their acts, suffered yet another stroke, when American ambassador lambasted at them.

And in the meantime, if the Government is not able to find a solution to the problem, the political parties and the Maoists might start fighting among themselves and fall apart. This is likely to happen as the invisible hands have put the sanctum sanctorum beyond their reach, at least for the immediate future.

According to the sources close to Maoists, Maoists leaders were extremely annoyed with the dialogue of ambassador. However, the seasoned American diplomat seems to have evolved a different strategy which if hits the target would benefit America in either way.

It is a commonly shared view that with Nepalese publics very much in the fray and the political parties determined to capture its lost glory, the State will have an interim government with speculations of subsequent defections. Since, America has considerable clout with all party organizations; it can alter the constituent poll outcome.

That a semblance of unity has been maintained by both America and the mainstream political parties, Maoists will face a tough electoral contest and the political parties have high stakes in the poll. For the Maoists it would be a litmus test which will have a bearing on its prospect in the next Parliamentary elections as the Maoist supremo, Prachanda, is directly involved in constituent electioneering process.

Nonetheless, all parties will find the battle tough as none of the parties have their game plan quite nearly chalked out nor do they have a solid base and a well defined constituent assembly elections manifesto.

It is hard to predict the exact result of the constituent assembly elections but it seems that Maoists will be able to forge ahead of other political parties but they should be ready for a shock as they may not be able to exploit the Nepali sentiment to their advantage.

Now the deprived amongst the Nepalis have become politically conscious and the Maoists may be at the receiving end as their popularity graphs has been showing a steady decline over the months.