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Will America and Britain be taken by surprise by the emergence of a new super-power?

Lorna Thomas - 7/12/2006

During the last decade I have written that unless America and Britain change, Russia would become a major player on the world scene and would, in the future, together with Germany, form part of the leadership of a giant military/economic colossus. The balance of power in the world would dramatically shift from a
weakened America (and Britain) to these nations.

That scenario looms ever closer as Russia, the biggest country in the world, the world's second biggest oil producer after Saudi Arabia and the leading source of natural gas, chaired the G8 meeting in St Petersburg.

Russia's chairmanship has not pleased some US Senators who believe Russia, originally admitted only as an observer to encourage economic reform and democratic development in the country, should not be a member of what is considered a club of developed democracies, let alone be allowed to head the organisation.

While it may not yet be viewed by all as one of the world's leading economic powers, oil and gas are helping forge Russia's new status in the world.

President Putin has made restoring Russian prestige a key aspect of his presidency and his efforts have been given a boost at a time when oil prices have soared to new highs in an oil-dependent world. Putin believes "It was God's will to make the country the leader of the market for natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy."

Damian Grammaticus, BBC Moscow wrote "Mr Putin will want to emphasise to G8 members like the US, Japan and Germany, that their economies may be far bigger than Russia's, but they need his country because it has enough oil and gas to keep them supplied for years to come."

Gazprom managing chairman Alexei Miller has stated: "When it comes to gas for developing the European economy, there is no realistic alternative to Russia."

Mr Putin has stated that on some issues, Russia considers the United States their 'principal partner' - they are 'the two biggest nations of the world so we have special responsibility for security.' Putin acknowledges the United States as Russia's biggest trade partner.

However, in terms of partnerships in both security and trade Russia will inevitably forge far closer ties with Europe than with America or Britain.

Russia still retains a huge nuclear arsenal from when it was part of the Soviet Union. I wrote in 1998:" 'It is said that 'Russia is still by far the largest and militarily most significant state in Europe, notwithstanding her current political and economic problems.' Both Germany and Russia, European countries, are and will increasingly assume world roles and influence which would only a decade ago have been viewed with great concern by both America and Britain."

And in a letter addressed to President Clinton in June 1999, I stated 'A dramatic change of direction lies just ahead in the areas of world politics, military power, economics and religion as the balance of leadership in the world shifts away from America and Britain to a Europe including both Russian and German leadership.'

Will America and Britain be taken by surprise by the emergence of a new super-power or will they heed the warnings?