Home >> Terrorism >> Terror Threats

     Email   Print 

Terror Threats in July 2006

Ryan Mauro - 8/8/2006

Iraq Intelligence Items
1)A document dated March 10, 2002 describes a meeting of the Iraqi “biological committee” after a trip by “delegates” to Moscow. Rihab Taha, also known as “Dr. Germ,” refers in the meeting to the development of “aircraft sprayers that are able to scatter dust.”
2) A reader forwarded an Associated Press report from October 31, 2003, describing how, in March 2003, Iraq officials brought reporters to a training camp near Baghdad where foreign fighters (a.k.a., terrorists) were being trained. The fighters were from Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia.
3) Dan Darling has reported on an article entitled “Jihadist Algerians in Iraq” by Faycal Oukac, who cites an Egyptian specialist named Dia Rachwane. The specialist explains that hundreds of radical Islamic Algerians had entered Iraq before the war began.
4) A document reviewed by the Pentagon noted that an Iraqi named “Abu Abdullah” reported that 50 Iraqi trucks entered Syria’s Deir Al-Zour province on March 10, 2003. The drivers said they were paid for the safe delivery of the contents, and one driver confirmed there was a previous trip on March 1, 2003. Abdallah contacted the former consul for the Iraqi embassy in Damascus, who was unaware that Abdallah was working with the Iraqi opposition in Syria. The former consul questioned Abdallah regarding how he knew about the WMD shipments, and after confirming the accuracy of the story, told Abdallah not to tell anyone.


Middle East

A new Shiite insurgent group, calling themselves the Islamic Resistance in Iraq Abbas Brigades, arose in Iraq this month. Analysts believe the group was formed with the assistance of Hezbollah and Iran. The group plans to target Coalition soldiers and the Iraqi government, but not Iraqi civilians.
It should be noted that foreign powers are engineering most of the “death squad” violence that is specifically aimed at provoking a civil war in Iraq. Many commentators speak of this sectarian violence as if it was a new phenomenon, when it decidedly is not. For example, note which nationalities are represented in the death squad personnel when Coalition forces capture any of them. They are almost always members of foreign fighter groups, radical Shiite militias backed by Iran, or simply insurgents changing their tactics. Death squad tactics is the new modus operandi among the insurgency, and should be viewed as an adaptation to the changing battlefield, not merely a new “bump in the road” fomented by Western ignorance or mistakes. Iraqis are weary of the violence, and have nothing to gain from such an horrific outcome.

A new scientific poll by the International Republican Institute from June 14-24 gives reason for continued optimism in Iraq.
· 41% feel Iraq is heading in the right direction, with 35% saying the wrong direction.
o Those who feel it is going in the right direction cite the election of a national government (31%), freedom and democracy (21%), and the removal of Saddam’s regime (13%).
o Those who feel it is going in the wrong direction blame the security problems (34% + 6% cite “general instability”), the presence of occupying forces (32%), and sectarian conflict (7%). This demonstrates that most Iraqis blame the insurgents for their problems, and that as the insurgency weakens, morale among the Iraqis will increase.
· 55% approve of Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, which is impressive considering that there is intense political brawling in Iraq, a wide range of divisive and heated issues being dealt with, and a large degree of angst about the security situation and reconstruction.
· A overwhelming 89% feel the establishment of a national “unity” government representing everyone is “Extremely important” for future stability. 46% feel that all of Iraq’s sects are “adequately represented” in the government, with 24% disagreeing.
· 78% oppose the segregation of Iraq based on religion or ethnicity.
· 67% support central control of Iraq’s oil revenue, and only 12% want oil revenue to be spent only on the originating province.
· 47% feel that the death of Zarqawi will decrease sectarian tension, with 39% disagreeing. This may mean that 47% minimum blame Zarqawi and the terrorists for sectarian violence, as opposed to the other sects as the mainstream media claims.

This month saw the dramatic escalation of violence in the Middle East with Israel’s offensive against Hamas and Hezbollah positions in Lebanon.

Unfortunately, Israeli assaults on civilian structures in Lebanon seemed to diminish the conventional wisdom that Israel’s retaliation was just. However, in order to dismember Hezbollah, these civilian structures have to be destroyed since, in the case of the Beirut airport, weapons for Hezbollah were being shipped via civilian assets. The Israelis destruction of roads can be justified in this context as well, along with the possibility that, using the road system, the kidnapped Israeli soldiers could be transported further away.
Originally, Arab leaders appeared to stand by and were eager to see Hezbollah get the destruction they deserve, as with the exception of Syria, every Arab leader has looked towards Iran with fear. It is highly likely that the United States can play upon this fear to form a secret coalition against Iran and perhaps Syria, although it is highly unlikely this would be a formal coalition. It is an absolute certainty that any such relationships would be rigorously denied by the Arabs, if, and/or, when they’re questioned.

Israel’s withdrawal of forces from Bint Jbail, Lebanon, has allowed Sheikh Nasrallah to claim victory. If Israel’s ground offensive stops now, this will not only allow Hezbollah to declare victory and regroup to full strength again (and perhaps even greater strength), but any short-term Israeli gains against Hezbollah will be quickly reversed in the matter of a few months.

Hezbollah will always survive as long as Iran and Syria’s regimes remain unchanged, but the fact that Hezbollah’s infrastructure would remain in Lebanon would effectively mean that there will have been little or no Israeli gains. If Hezbollah is eliminated from Lebanon, it will severely weaken the organization, since most of its assets are there. The group will survive but will be radically weakened and changed, and Syria and Iran will have found themselves defeated in the next battle of the War on Terror. But the War on Terror will definitely continue, and future battles definitely lie ahead.

It is abundantly clear that Iran is striving to escalate the situation in Lebanon. As we’ve written countless times in this monthly analysis, Iran is eagerly seeking to provoke Israel and the US into an action that, they believe, will rally Muslims worldwide to Iran’s cause, thus plunging the region into the prophetic last-days battle that Ahmadinejad believes he is ordained to foment. This can be seen either as an attempt to trigger a series of events leading to that war or, as preparation for a “trigger”, meaning Iran is testing their capabilities while simultaneously attempting to distract attention from their nuclear pursuits. It should also be noted that no show of force will frighten Ahmadinejad, because he believes the 13th Imam will arrive after the last-days battle begins, to lead the “true Muslims” (him) to victory against the infidels—and, purportedly, no matter how superior the infidels may be, the 13th Imam will ultimately win.

One final event to note: Iran has promised to respond to a plan for a Western aid package in return for an end to Iran’s uranium enrichment program on August 22nd. Ahmadinejad is a significant proponent of symbolism. Why has Ahmadinejad chosen August 22nd? That is the day of Lailat Al-Israa when, the Prophet Mohammed purportedly ascended to heaven from modern-day Jerusalem. One can only imagine what sort of event Ahmadinejad plans to commemorate on that day, and attempt to solidify his image as a holy warrior in the final days.


Africa

Recently, in Somalia, radical Islamic warlords defeated more moderate militias and took control of the country. There were reports that the US supported the anti-terrorism militias but apparently there wasn’t enough support, and the terrorists won. How did this happen? According to the US State Department, funding from Saudi Arabia was used to establish this new state sponsor of terrorism.


Latin America

This month, the first two Russian SU-30s arrived in Venezuela, with twenty more on the way. Hugo Chavez is rapidly building the most advanced air force in Latin America and based on his past statements, it is unlikely that he won’t share similar technology with Iran or Cuba.

Speculation about the future of Cuba has increased in recent months, with Fidel Castro vowing to continue communism there after his death. However, the bi-partisan Commission for Assistance to a Free Cube is pledging $80 million to help the flow of information into Cuba despite Castro’s restrictions and, to prepare the way for democratic change in the future.

Fortunately for the US, the radical socialistic leftist movement in Latin America has hit a brick wall. Leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was defeated in Mexico this month, although he is contesting the close election and, as of July 27, declared himself president and vowed escalating civil disobedience. While those loyal to the emerging 21st Century East Bloc of South America have suffered a setback, they now have ample ideological/political gains in Mexico upon which they can rely in the future. By activating supporters of Obrador whenever the Bloc disagrees with Mexico’s foreign policy, they may be able to stymie their enemies politically.

Recently Evo Morales has been experiencing domestic difficulties in Bolivia, the more moderate Alan Garcia defeated the left-wing Ollanta Humala in Peru, and in Colombia, Alvaro Uribe remains tremendously popular. These victories should be applauded, but by no means is this any “beginning of the end” of the leftist wave in South America, and it is unlikely these more positive events will translate in a reversal of the leftist gains. Those hoping for a pro-American bloc to emerge and overpower Chavez will be disappointed.

In terms of anti-terrorism, a steady stream of reports continue to arrive that Venezuela is backing FARC and other Latin American groups. Reportedly, Venezuela has not responded to 130 US requests for information on suspected terrorists and has denied 20 US requests for interviews with Venezuela counter-terrorism officials.


Asia

North Koreans dictator Kim Jong Il’s desperate desire for attention led North Korea to a show of force utilizing their ballistic missile capabilities. North Korea attempted to launch an ICBM that could reach the western US, but it failed. The US should heed the fact that, as in its own efforts to refine ballistic missile technology, each North Korean failed test is a step towards a successful test. Marginal US diplomacy with Iran may very well have led North Korea to surmise that such tests could be utilized to bargain with the Western powers.

The US needs to take this opportunity to move forward with effective anti-ballistic missile defenses, as a means to counter both North Korea—and China. Should the North Korean successfully test a missile that is capable of reaching the western coast of the US, the US must take a gamble over whether to shoot the missile down, in or near North Korean airspace. If such a long-range missile is successfully intercepted and destroyed, it would severely weaken North Korea’s position and lead the region closer to the US for protection. If a US intercept fails, the regional powers could easily, and understandably, question US defensive capabilities, and seek security in moving towards China.
New revelations from a defector should have made the front page of every newspaper this month. The story begins In December 2001. A North Korean ship appeared southwest of Kagoshima Prefecture in Japan, where it traded fire with the Japanese Coast Guard. The story of the ship’s subsequent sinking differs in various news accounts, disputing whether the ship blew itself up, or was destroyed by Japanese fire. There is also dispute over the accuracy of claims that the ship was carrying methamphetamines. Now it has been reported that a North Korean with 33 years in intelligence-related work is claiming the ship carried 22 special forces operatives to infiltrate Japan, train for five months, and launch terrorist attacks in Japan and South Korea during the World Cup soccer tournament.