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Neither Withdrawal Nor Staying The Course Will Save Iraq

Amit Pyakurel - 4/23/2007

While President Bush has never relented on getting the "work done" in Iraq, the scenario in this long-tormented nation, since the invasion over three years ago, still doesn't sound any pleasing. Though after the execution of the one-time tyrant, Saddam Hussein, who was believed to have had imposed havoc to his people, Iraq hasn't shown any visible progress and its citizens are experiencing the bloodletting worse than in the time of their now-extinct dictator.

It's a painful wait and watch situation for the Iraqis until a real "progress" is made, who are rather the witness of daily burning fleshes and scattered pieces of innocent bodies (these could be their own children or loved ones), by bomb attacks and due to the scuffle between the internecine sectarian factions and the insurgents hitting against the coalition locales.

And, when there has been a concern over the psychological consequences regarding the post-conflict disorders in the coalition troops fighting in Iraq, the children of these troops who are serving in Iraq are also not exempt from such psychological disorder, according to a recent report. Among the three groups studied, the kids of civilian parents, kids from military families without parents in Iraq, and kids with parents stationed in Iraq, the research claims that the children of the parents in the U.S. troops in Iraq, and elsewhere, tend to have higher blood pressure, increased heart rates, and elevated stress levels.

However, the study suggests that the impact of war on children is still not understood well, and the new findings may indicate that the children having active military parents may need support during the periods of active conflict. The researchers said, "Further research is warranted to determine whether stress reduction interventions may be effective in reducing stress levels and associated indices of sympathetic nervous system arousal in children of military personnel."

It's been known that the horror stories compiled by the world media about Iraq is comparatively very less than the real situation on the ground. So this could mean that the horror that we see from outside is only a tiny fraction of what the Iraqis actually experience around their vicinity.

This could also let us think that Iraqis are most desperate to get out of this turmoil and to see Iraq as a peacefully stable nation, than anyone else. And this desire of ordinary Iraqis might have played to some extent in terrorists' mindset to cause daily mayhem against the innocents, as if loved one/s of any ordinary Iraqis are killed by the terrorists then the families or friends of the victims are seen to be blaming the coalition presence for this. This notion must be favoring the psychological perception of the terrorists who irrationally think that the blame would solely target the coalition troops if they kill the fellow Iraqi innocents.

But the international displeasure towards the invasion and longer stay of the coalition troops in Iraq, however, never accredit any praise towards the terrorists who blow up the innocents in the name of patriotism or religious independence. Yes, if the coalition presence has become a reason for the spread of the violence in Iraq, as the terrorists has been killing innocents to force the withdrawal, then the causes of staying longer do deserve a rethinking.

However, looking at the changed context of the growing sectarian strife in Iraq, the onlookers has shifted their vision from a "rapid withdrawal" to a slow and consistent withdrawal, without letting a significant power vacuum to be created in Iraq that could lead to destabilization and more unrestrained violence between the sectarian groups.

A recent development marks a first-time change in perception of the Arab Sunni leaders towards the coalition presence in Iraq, since they had refuted the invasion initially. Since, if the U.S. led coalition troops abruptly leaves Iraq, as the U.S. is basically supporting the perceivably moderate Sunni power faction in Iraq, it would lead a full breakout of the civil war between Sunnis and other Islamic groups who are rather recognized as having the radical and terrorist motives.

And, the Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's recent visit to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other Gulf States, seems to have well convinced these leaders that any failure of the US and other coalition troops or any abrupt withdrawal can cause the ripple of political destabilization even up to their countries, in the event of an eruption of a full-throttle civil war between the Sunnis and other religious factions in Iraq. Considering that a upsurge of a civil war in Iraq may well be infiltrated into the boundaries of these nations, the US call for support from these nations may have made positive impact upon them, at least for the time being.

But, when even the Arab critics have shifted towards a positive perception towards the President Bush's "new strategy" in Iraq, that includes staying longer with additional troops of over 2000, the recent reduction of the British troops from the Iraqi battlefields may somehow have played contrary to the determination and confidence of the U.S. to prolong the occupation and to only leave at an "appropriate" time.

Though the withdrawal of some of its troops by Britain, the country that predominantly allied the U.S. at the time of the invasion, may not necessarily mean to the U.S. that it's long and ever trusted ally has alleviated its support to get the work done in Iraq, or to make the Iraqi security personnel capable to fight on their own against the insurgents and sectarian fighters, analysts do claim that this would psychologically and indirectly persuade other coalition partners to loosen their grip in Iraq, sooner or later.

At the other side, analysts also argue that, no matter in what extent the strength of the troops are increased in Iraq, including the recent surge of 20,500 troops by President Bush to stifle the insurgency and to restrain the sectarian violence in Iraq, an eventual failure of achieving a positive goal in Iraq may be inevitable. Critics argue that the troops surge would postpone but couldn't stop Iraq for not to achieve its goal of being an appreciably peaceful, stabilized, and democratic nation, concerning the elevating hatred and violence between the internal religious factions in Iraq.