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Democracy: The Big Topic Of Discussion In Pakistan

Bhuwan Thapaliya - 6/12/2007

At home and abroad, things have never looked murkier for Pakistan’s president, Pervez Musharraf. The question is will it fade or will it smolder on and on? It is hard, looking back over the past few weeks or so, to imagine a worse few weeks for the Pakistani president. Since September 11th, Pervez Musharraf has done a lot to make the West like him. He has embraced the American – led anti- terrorist coalition and by doing so has given new dimension to the Pakistani politics.

But Democracy has suddenly become a big topic of discussion in Pakistan where president Pervez Musharraf is struggling to remain in power.The latest burst of excitement has been provoked by General Musharraf's efforts to remove the head of Pakistan's Supreme Court, Iftikhar Chaudhry at any cost, though he has no power to sack judges.

Meanwhile, Mr. Chaudhry has been reincarnated as a protagonist of Pakistan 's long-dejected democracy. Ordinary Pakistanis, too, have been flocking to Mr. Chaudhry but on the other side, Musharraf’s hold on power is deteriorating with each lapse of time and his popularity is slipping.

But critics say everything is not lost for Musharraf. At home, the economy is growing and reforms continue and its relations with America have never been warmer. America has given Pakistan an estimated $10 billion in aid, much of it military, since 2001.

Moreover, Mr. Musharraf is also reshaping Pakistan ’s stance in the world. Its relationship with India has improved a lot and these nations talk about war no more. Old fashioned twitchiness about spheres of influence has lessened. And Kind words from Washington have given a gloss to Pakistan ’s image in an international arena.

But some hard truth remains. Mr. Musharraf is a dictator and although some interests overlap, others do not. For instance, Pakistan has little difficulty in supporting air strikes against al Qaeda bases. But any American move against, say, Taliban may be another story.

Another problem is that many of the people who matter in Pakistan still think very differently from Mr.Musharaff. Even some of the president’s own team sings a different song. Considering this, Mr. President may find it hard to make a pro-western stance pay off at home.

A lot of powerful people still resist economic reform too. Over the past five years many people have done well out of Pakistan ’s entrenched protectionism, but bureaucracy and cartels. They would hate to see them dismantled in favor of the international competition, openness, normality and reliability as praised by Mr. Musharraf.

“Many of the general's prescriptions have been excellent. In the management of the economy he has trusted sensible technocrats, including Mr Aziz. They have been blessed with an inheritance of liberal reforms and, above all, by booming capital inflows, not only from America . Yet they can take credit for strong economic growth, predicted to be 7% this year,” as per the Economist’s report.

But analysts say, Pakistan must still grow even faster it is to catch up with India or other Asian nations reasonably soon but that is not possible in the near future given the complexity of Pakistani politics and its beleaguered democracy.

Another important question is sincerity. Musharraf motives are inscrutable. He may have calculated that now is the time to woo the West with grand gesture and spontaneous concessions, in the hope of a grateful payback later. But the west is aware of his dictatorial policies.

The west or the proponent of democracy on the other hand cannot support the dictator forever. If it does, then it is making the very mockery of the democracy. Today or tomorrow, it must force Musharraf to pave way for the democratic forces of Pakistan to rule the beleaguered nation. And Musharraf knows this very well. That sooner or later, those foreign allies who are supporting him will show him their backs.

These are immediate worries for Musharraf and his declining popularity means that his regime faces a direct threat, not from outside but from his own people. Those very people, who welcomed his coup when Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif conspired against each other for a decade and led the nation to misrule and instability.

But now the story is different. They are not satisfied with his rule too. They want change. They are not happy at all after President curbed the Pakistani media to prolong his dictatorial rule. They want democracy to take the centre stage of Pakistani politics. Sensing this, Musharraf is facing sleepless nights and there are some clandestine reports of Pakistani army telling the president to step down if the people’s power refuses to die down on the streets soon. But this report is yet to be verified.

And there are other reports of Musharraf negotiating with former Prime Minister, Ms Bhutto too. As we all know Ms Bhutto is an astute politician and she may use this as an avenue to enter Pakistan . She wants the general to free her of the corruption charges, brought by Mr. Sharif, that have kept her in exile.

Analysts say, the association of the general and Ms. Bhutto looks bona fide because Ms Bhutto, according to them would have no objection in forming a partnership with General Musharraf, whom she can ditch any time at her will upon using him.

“She wants General Musharraf to rid her of the corruption charges, brought by Mr. Sharif, that have kept her in exile. She would also like him to scrap the two-term limit that he has imposed on the office of prime minister; Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif have each held the office twice. For his part, General Musharraf wants the PPP to support his policies as a loyal opposition,” according to the report published by The Economist.

Meanwhile, critics say, Ms. Bhutto’s association with General Musharraf won’t please the West because during Ms Bhutto’s tenure, Pakistan backed the Taliban in Afghanistan and sold nuclear secrets to Iran and North Korea . But these are speculations only because international politics are not static. They are dynamic and they are always on the verge of change.

Nonetheless, whatever the scenario, things are not looking rosy at all for President Musharraf at all. Most Pakistanis are delighted to see their country more popular and respected, and glad to avoid a dictatorial rule. They prefer democracy and for them even slow and patchy democratic reforms are better than none. Is Musharraf listening?

Hopefully, Musharraf will get the message from the ongoing protests going on around Pakistan against him. If not, there's worse to come with an election due this year.