Home >> Middle East >> Arab-Israeli Relations  Email  Print Middle East Peace: What Can Tony Blair Do? Saberi Roy - 7/29/2007 One of the questions that could bother everyone is that what will analysts and world leaders do if the Israel-Palestine conflict ever gets resolved? It’s possible that this worry is unfounded as the mid-east problem will not be resolved completely in the immediate future but will hopefully start dwindling and will be seen as a less important issue.
At the moment there are some major positive changes happening in the region with Israel ready to improve relations with the moderate elements of Palestinian authority. Jordan and Egypt have sent their foreign ministers to present a peace plan for the Middle East on behalf of the Arab people. The Hamas uprising seems to have lost much of its steam and now entirely confined in the Gaza region, the world is talking and talking about Middle East and finally we also have Tony Blair with an impressive track record as a peacemaker sent as an envoy to the Middle East. Things can’t get any better than this but there are too many obstacles.
The conflict is not just about Israel and Palestine but Israel-Fatah-Hamas on the one hand and Fatah-Hamas on the other. The peace process can also not be attained with talks between Jordanians, Egyptians and Israelis-Palestinians but a broader representation of the Arab League would be necessary and more active participation of the Arab leaders in the peace process should be expected. As Palestine is not just about Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah, the Arab League is also not just about Jordan and Egypt. As Hamas has emphasised that Blair cannot ignore them in the peace process, news reports have indicated that the Arab League Secretary General has also suggested that Egyptian and Jordanian ministers who visited Israel do not necessarily represent the League. The peace efforts are largely of moderate Arab states and in general a large part of the Arab world still remains rather disinterested in peace talks with Israel.
Apart from the regular issues of Israel leaving occupied territories and a suitable solution for the Palestinian refugee problem, there are other pressing issues at the moment. More than a million Palestinian people are controlled by the Hamas and isolated in Gaza so a solution to the Fatah-Hamas divide would be absolutely necessary at this time and the fact that the Hamas is not recognized at all by the West is bound to make Gaza another Kashmir. If the Fatah manages to get the mandate of the people and establishes a government with moderate religious views, a two-state solution as proposed by the West might just work as in case of India-Pakistan but then Gaza would remain a problematic area for another 50 years just like Kashmir and will become a breeding ground of terrorists and separatists. So what we can expect now is a shift from an inter-religious broad conflict to a more region-specific separatist/terrorist related conflict if a peace solution is successful between Israel and Palestine.
At the moment Tony Blair does not seem to have too many powers. He has to work according to the rules of the Quartet - the US, EU, UN and Russia and some of his disadvantages seem to be that he is largely recognized as a ‘friend’ of Israel rather than a non-biased peacemaker. He is also largely dependent on moderate Islamic states such as Egypt and Jordan to help him strike a peace deal in the region and cannot recognize Hamas and include Islamist extremist groups in the peace talks as well. Although Hamas has some legitimate political stance in Palestine, the political tactics of the group being largely similar to terrorists, the group is definitely moving towards a transformation from a political group to a terrorist organisation yet there may be major ideological differences between Hamas and other terrorist organisations. Blair is also supposedly meant to focus only on Palestinian institution building, economic development and reforms at present, although he will very soon realize that he will have to broaden his horizons and seek greater powers in the region.
So what exactly can be Blair’s gameplan and what can he do?
Blair has to involve more and more members of the Arab League in the peace process and negotiations and focus on the less moderate states in the region and try to influence the views of as many Arab leaders as possible
Apart from the focus on institution building and reform, Blair cannot ignore the Fatah-Hamas divide and should emphasize on the need to get the people of Palestine to establish a moderate form of government
Blair can press for discussions among Arab leaders and get a general understanding of their views towards Israel and the conflict which will allow him to work better
Blair can also orchestrate the implementation of the peace plan as presented by some Arab leaders and use his influence on Israel to strike a peace deal
Finally Blair has to look at the broader issues – the historical roots of the conflict, the religious elements and the terrorism in the region. Considering that Blair has a personal interest in inter-religious matters, this shouldn’t be a major problem.
So is Blair the right man for the job? Of course he is. Whether it’s Northern Ireland or Sierra Leone, Tony Blair is a successful mediator, a visionary and understands religious problems very well. Although he will not be able to completely solve the Israel-Palestine conflict, he might be able to lessen it to a substantial degree so that it is hoped that the mid-east problem will no longer remain a broader religious struggle but dwindle to something more region specific and a conflict on a smaller scale.
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