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Russia-UK’s Political Consensus Is In Recession

Bhuwan Thapaliya - 7/31/2007

Majority of the diplomats now agree on something. Practically all of them now say that the Russia-UK’s political consensus is in recession. Where they do not agree is over how deep and how long the political recession will be, and how robust the recovery, if it is to happen at all. Russia and the United Kingdom are playing a diplomatic see-saw. Last few weeks were a gift to critics of Russia and the United Kingdom ’s foreign policy. It all started with UK expelling four Russian diplomats following Moscow’s refusal to extradite the main suspect(Andrei Lugovoi, ex-KGB agent), in the murder of former spy Alexander Litvinenko (Another ex-KGB agent who had taken UK citizenship, died of exposure to radioactive polonium-210 in London in November 2006).
And undertaking the old “tit for tat” theory, Russia too is to expel four diplomats in the continuing row over Moscow ’s refusal to extradite the suspected man. What does all this mean? Talk of a “new cold war” is on the cards, but it is not the case, but observers state that Western relations with Russia could worsen and the Russian prompt response to the expulsions may yet escalate matters.

To be precise, Russia and UK ’s relationship has been going from bad to worse. Last year Moscow accused Britain of spying in Moscow . In a high political drama, Russian authorities in Moscow allegedly harassed Britain ’s ambassador for attending an opposition conference against diplomatic norms.

Considering that drama, this latest row was not unexpected. For last several months, Litvinenko issue has been the most polarizing of issues: ideologically raw and politically charged. After the British expulsion it promised to become even more controversial as Russia too has already ordered for the British expulsion.

This has now become a highly charged political matter. What matters then will be whether the two governments can solve this crisis through mutual understanding or will relations simply slump further? But contentious though they are, none of these is a divisive matter given the economic flexibility and ties enjoyed by these two nations. Given the improving level of close economic ties between Britain and Russia , neither nation has any interest in making a mountain out of the mole.

Deep inside both countries realize that such an expulsion race would unfold economic disasters for both nations. If the accusation continues, it could consign the Russia- UK alliance to gradual decay, with potentially dreadful consequences. Chiefly, it could also have consequences for British investors in Russia and Russian investors in Britain . Moreover, most importantly, it could diminish the Russian assistance over other chronic high level international problems such as Iran ’s nuclear ambitions and the global war on the terrorism.

How real are these dangers? Consider, first, the possibility that trade rows will undermine Russia ’s partnership with the United Kingdom . Such disputes have dogged the alliance for many years, and the partnership has survived. But the trade disputes seem to be hitting the nadir.

For instance, according to the Economist, British investors in Russia , such as BP have already suffered from the Kremlin’s bullying; extra-legal methods.This makes the future British investors in Russia suspicious. And this is not a good sign for Russia , who is eyeing to be the fifth largest economy by the year 2020.

Furthermore, keeping economics apart, the latest UK- Russia row over a dead ex-spy has once again exemplified that it was a cold- war fallacy to think that ideology was the only cause of war.

Misunderstanding and miscalculations, irrespective of what sort of government you have, has always caused most wars; and it is as vigorous today as ever it was. Meanwhile, at this very moment both Russia and UK are therefore more likely to misunderstand one another, and to miscalculate the other’s reactions to what they do. Why? Because both of these nations are economically sound and both them have a global voice. Moreover, the miscalculations will be even clumsier if these 21st century’s powers think they are each other’s enemy.

So what should the United Kingdom do at this critical moment? Mr. Gordon Brown and his administration, fresh from the terror plot, should realize that the United Kingdom needs to measure the size of the different challenges it is likely to face in the new century, so that it can put them in their proper order. It would be a mistake for the UK (West) to let itself drawn into a long, distracting confrontation with Islamic revivalists if potentially bigger dangers loom elsewhere.

If at the moment some of these revivalists are fiercely anti western, before long they will probably discover that they face even worse arguments with Russia and China . Moral for the West: try not to let the next few years only crushing the Islam, keep an eye on Russia and China too.

As for United Kingdom, sitting between the twin blades of post- communist Russia and revivalist Islam, just as important , it should bear in mind that its future relationships with Russia depends in large part on Russia’s relations with China. If Russia is Afraid of China, it will be more amendable towards the West. If China never becomes a threatening sort of place, Russia will be able to concentrate on what divides it from the West.

The moral here seems to be that the West can afford to be firm in its present dealing with Russia . If events in China push Russia into West’s arms, nothing will have been lost by firmness, if they do not, the West will be only too glad that it had been firm.

That said, however, the Western side of the story, there remains half a hope that Russia will come back to solve the problem through judicial means back home if the Russian Constitution bans over handing Russian citizens to other countries. In the absence of this, Russia could face a tough future. The chameleon tendency cannot forever remain Russia ’s saving grace. Russia must take Britain ’s request seriously and co-operate.

Hence, experts think, Russia won’t gain much by indulging on the spy matter forever because Russia is rising economically and it has regained its lost glory by its stunning economic success. Thus, it should concentrate on economic goals, chiefly export promotion. If the pursuit of economic gain hurt cold- war ties, then so be it.

United Kingdom, should also think twice before taking any further diplomatic action against Russia and treat Russia as its allies and not a foe because West needs Russia as much as Russia needs the West for trade, global fight against the extremists and the terrorists. Let this be understood by the diplomats of both nations. Deteriorating relationship between Russia and UK will make this world more fragile and unstable. There is no harm in shaking hands yet again.

However, in the political process everything now revolves around the question whether Kremlin and London are willing to shake hands. International observers hope that they do. Whether the political climate is ready for this will be revealed in the next few months.