Home >> Middle East >> Turkey  Email  Print Turkey: Threat or Triumph for Democracy? Prof. Barry Rubin - 8/1/2007 ISTANBUL, TURKEY. Turks of every political position tell me the same story to explain their situation: to cook a live frog you don't put it in a pot on a high flame. You put it in cool water and raise the temperature very slowly. This is what they fear is happening in Turkey due to the victory of the Islamic-oriented Justice and Development (AK) party in the July 22 parliamentary election.
International media coverage repeats endlessly that the AK party is really moderate now. Despite Islamist roots, they say, it is now a centrist party mainly concerned with Turkey becoming a European Union (EU) member and having a prosperous economy.
Certainly, such is the image the party has projected for its five years in power and there is some evidence to accept this conclusion. Precisely because half of Turkish voters were convinced that AK had no Islamist intentions they voted for it. The economy is doing well. Turkey might benefit from having a system more balanced regarding religion.
At the same time, though, there is also evidence to doubt that AK is going to be so benign. And even if the party is relatively moderate it is still nothing to rejoice about. The long-term prospects of AK rule are disturbing. No one knows what will happen but to conclude that Turkey will prove the virtues of Islamists-gone-moderate is somewhere between premature and naive.
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