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Prospect of political violence is growing in Nepal

Bhuwan Thapaliya - 8/7/2007

Achieving a permanent peace after so much conflict was always bound to be a messy affair, a confusing mix of pragmatism and principle, of recriminations, political maneuvering and hope. But strong ties between the Seven Political Parties and the Maoists, united in their determination to make a deal stick, would certainly help.

But unfortunately for Nepal , that didn’t happen and the prospect of political violence is growing and it is more likely to hit its zenith before the much coveted Constituent Assembly elections scheduled later this year.

Political consensus among the Seven Political Parties and the Maoists since the overthrow of royal regime has, not surprisingly, been bleak.

To make the matter worse, the prospect of political violence is growing and most political observers now predict that Nepalese political consensus will show a total decline in the next few months as the Nation is heading towards the historic Constituent assembly polls destined to be held in the month of November.

They say it will be broadly flat till the last quarter of 2007, and then start to recover, with a relatively strong political nexus, by the first half of the next year. If so, this would be one of the historic achievements for Nepal .

But can Maoists and the remaining seven political parties live up to their avowed good intentions? What was agreed on in Delhi was only a rough outline of a Nepal whole and free. As UML chairman, Madhav Prasad Nepal publicly reminded the house last week that Maoists and the Seven Political Parties still have deep differences, not least over Nepal ’s political consensus.

Some parts of Nepal are as yet untouched by any spirit of reconciliation. And Maoists and the Seven Political Parties, pushed shoulder-to- shoulder to ensure their common survival, have more trouble than they once did sorting out political tensions.

If Nepal is not to blow its best chance yet for lasting stability, much is still to be done. What are the obstacles? The obstacle is mainly due to the Young Communist League (YCL) formed by the Maoists.

Analysts have suggested the Maoists to disband the YCL. But CPN-Maoists Chairman Prachanda may not disband the YCL. Having failed to tie the alliance down in the Delhi document, Prachanda may well try to tie political parties in knots using the YCL. In the meantime, Maoists will play political parties off against each other. There will be plenty of scope for that.

The debate in Nepal about the YCL could be particularly heated before the constituent assembly election. The timing is all the trickier because ratification rows may coincide with renewed tension over YCL. Yet Nepal ’s problems are far from over.

If Nepal is to enjoy freedom, peace accords finalized in Delhi need to be more comprehensively enforced: more people chased from their homes should be allowed back; indicted war criminals should be brought to justice; the police force that is supposed to take its guard needs more assistance. Time is short.

None of these potential difficulties is insurmountable, given enough political attention. But that may turn out to be the biggest problem of all. Over the coming months everybody will find its energies occupied by the induction of new election. Even without Terai meddling, Parties- Maoists ties could suffer neglect just when the scope for political misunderstanding is growing.

Some Nepalese who have long urged democratic parties of Nepal to speak with a more coherent voice and do more for itself are starting to worry about the competition from a Maoists uprising, and about the political challenge that may lie behind it.

To make the matter more complex, according to The Kathmandu Post, in a political paper presented during the party’s Central Committee meeting on Tuesday, Prachanda has stated that it is not possible to conduct the CA polls without a proportional election system and a republic. He has stated that the party should launch a ‘people’s revolt’ in case there is no consensus over these issues before the CA poll.

These are not good signs for Nepal . Though Prachanda is his political paper, has acknowledged mistakes committed in the past by the party leadership and its cadres, especially the Young Communist League (YCL), he is yet to tame his cadres who are violating a ceasefire agreement declared in Delhi. This had led to the Maoists downfall.

International confidence over Maoists has crumbled abruptly. This unwelcome turnabout is not a complete surprise. Maoist’s style of diplomatic bluster has served it well in the past, most notably in helping to persuade Delhi to sign 21 point agreement with the Seven Political Parties of Nepal. But the mood in India has changed, partly because of the YCL formation and the Maoists atrocities.

Meanwhile, Nepalese political road map is being developed in India . India and America are still inclined to push on with Nepalese political integration, not so much to lend force to common Nepalese policies, but in order to distinguish parties from the Maoists. That would be folly.

It took monumental efforts by Americans, Europeans and India working together, both during the King’s rule and since, to win Nepal the chance of lasting peace and stability. What a pity to spoil it now by letting Maoists and the political parties to drift apart.

But if Maoist continues their politics of force, they themselves are to blame more than India or America . The rule of law and the sanctity of basic human rights are, as many know, often ignored by the Maoists.

Now, perhaps because Maoists post constituent assembly election looks less promising these days, Maoists are starting to show their real color. But as often as not, Maoists complains that it is unscrupulous hidden forces that are to blame for the mess. This may be true in some cases but not in all cases.

Finally, Nepal is going through one of the most dramatic periods of its social development and political maturing. However, it appears very important for all Nepal ’s political actors to display common sense and objectively reassess all “assets and liabilities” of the remaining political system in order to preserve and more effectively utilize all its resources.

Do Nepalese have political wisdom to overcome all the challenges standing presently in their way so that long lasting peace and prosperity would ultimately prevail in the country after a long hiatus? It is yet to be seen.