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Is Musharraf’s Boat Sinking?

Bhuwan Thapaliya - 8/10/2007

“The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.” Pakistan ’s military caravan has seemed recently to be in danger of being pushed off track: it still, as the Arab saying decrees, moves on. Since last month’s Mosque invade, massive Taliban attacks, and more importantly after the restoration of the Chief Judge by the Supreme Court, the regime has faced serious setbacks.

Gen Musharraf, who seized power in 1999, from Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif promising to bring proper democracy, law and order and economic revival to Pakistan, is facing escalating criticism of his rule from around the world.

Washington is watching Pakistan with caution and until now it was wait and see approach taken by America . But now as domestic heat against the president is warming up in Pakistan, especially rising prices of fuel and food, soaring extremism, sectarian violence between Sunni and Shia Muslims, and with American media urging the Bush administration to promote democracy in Pakistan, America is facing the dilemma , whether to support or not to support Pakistan.

Today, America must be cursing itself for supporting a dictator who after September 11th became a major player on the global fight against terrorism as Washington realized it needed Pakistan if it is to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Initial American realization bore fruits, and America thought it made a right strategy by making friendship with the Pakistani dictator. But to muddle the Pak- US relationships, Taliban today are mushrooming all across Afghanistan, Afghan- Pakistan border and most probably in some provinces of Pakistan too. Moreover, Afghan government accuses Pakistan of sheltering Taliban and not doing enough to curb their cells.

Most observers are suspicious of Musharraf’s motive and of his objectives. Musharraf’s short- term counter terrorism planning may appear modest, but in the light of his imbecility to tackle the cross border terrorism and the extremists, his long term counter terrorism turns out to be equally ambitious. That’s his result so far. But the Musharraf administration hopes that rapid action against the extremists will encourage America to pat its back yet again. And this is what Mr. Musharraf has been doing to prolong his presidency.

On the other hand, the regime has curbed the media and this continues. But Mr. Musharraf has now unleashed a softer force on his critics especially after the restoration of the Chief Judge by the Supreme Court. Court verdict slapped skin deep loyalties to the Bush administration, and showed that it may not prove enough to safeguard Musharraf’s future.

Pakistani people may be starting to grapple with the same dilemmas. Though few people in Pakistan have much reason to feel affection for America, which is supporting Pakistan , many other admitted that an American hand on their regime, might also offer than some protection from Indian heavy handedness.

Meanwhile, it is more than six years since President Bush declared war on terror. By increasing America’s anti-terrorism budget, involving its armed forces in repression of the terrorism, and by offering hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to the governments all around the world in their fight against the terrorism, Mr Bush planned to reduce the amount of terrorism. Half way through the 2007- and after the United States has spent billions and billions of dollars on its anti- terrorism fight- terrorism is still booming. And there are no signs of the terrorism easing off.

Isn’t this an irony of all the ironies? But we all know that fighting terrorism is a tough job and it is not as easy as it seems on the paper. Terrorists are ruthless beasts, so great amount of our time, energy and strategies are needed if we are to dismantle their terror cells and nip the bud of their strategies.

Meanwhile, no where else in the world is the issue of terrorism and extremism is more prominent than in America, as it commands headlines or the top slot on the political agenda in America. As World’s politicians may quickly discover, this is mainly because their counterparts in America found that there were numerous electoral rewards in engaging with such an intractable problem.

Considering this, what prompted the Bush administration to take its eye off Osama bin Laden to wage war in Iraq is not yet known? Although Bush still hankers in public about the Iraq-Al-Qaeda nexus.

Some analyst believes that Mr. Bush has underestimated Laden. United States , its people and its allies remains much the largest market for the terrorists to explore. Terrorist are testing the boundaries of the United States but despite the efforts of America and its allies, terrorism is still growing.

The bleak picture is not due to lack of effort by the anti-terrorist experts. Indeed, they have some notable success to their credit, thanks partly to international cooperation against the terrorism. Success figures are few and far between but, such as they are, they give comfort to anti- terrorism forces anywhere.

Nonetheless, it is not yet known what promoted the Bush administration to take its eye off Osama bin Laden, support a dictator in Pakistan (perhaps to in order to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan ), and wage war in Iraq . Observers say, more than Iraq, Pakistan is the real epicenter of Al-Qaida and its terrorism. Pakistan- Afghanistan border is a terrorist’s safe haven.

“Sources close to the White House on information provided by the US Special Forces and covert teams said to be conducting operations inside Pakistan, says that US officials are now directly blaming the country's military ruler Pervez Musharraf for giving Al-Qaida space and time to rebuild capacity and reorganize,” according to the media reports.

The veracity of their claim is yet to be confirmed but it is no more clandestine that Pakistani president is finding it hard to save his face amidst US demand to break down on extremism in Pakistan . In pure economics term, demand is high but the Pakistani president has not been able to offer supply. What are we to make of this then? The gap between American demand and Pakistani supply is growing.
And if this trend continues, then it is not too long before American and Pakistani political consensus sinks into recession.

On the substance, so far, America may not shift major gears at once but it has shown signs that it is on the verge of major policy change in Pakistan . America ’s strategic interests may shift soon and General Musharraf it seems is very aware of this. American may pull back from Pakistan if it does not act and continue to give space to the terrorist. If it happens then Pakistan will lose a lot because its economy and military is sustained by large infusions of American, aid.

President Bush still favors General Musharraf in Pakistan as long as he cracks down on terrorist safe havens, and still advocates about the Iraq-Qaida nexus, but Officials at Washington have started raising finger against Pakistan .

Read this, for instance. This is what Homeland Security analyst William Arkin wrote in this Washington Post blog.

"Normally I'd be quite cynical about such a government pronouncement, seeing it as a giant subject-changer... But in this case...the United States ... could also be on the verge of a sea change -- shifting its counter-terrorism attention from Iraq to Pakistan and Afghanistan, where it sees the greater threat to America.”

It seems that the time for diplomatic playground games has definitely run out for Musharraf as Pakistan today is sandwiched in between the blossoming relationship between the two biggest democracies of the world- US and India . Hence, it would be wise to pave way for the democratic parties of Pakistan to take the central stage, and resolve the issue of him occupying the countries both Chief military and civil posts because his boat is already sinking.

Time is running out for Pakistan to restructure the society and reorient its social inorder to aver the worst for Pakistani society. Let the fresh breeze of democracy blow over Pakistan yet again.