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Pakistan: Are General Musharraf’s Days Numbered?

Angelique van Engelen - 8/11/2007

Analysts are feasting on recent developments in Pakistan which is a complicated case scenario of a country on the brink of disintegration at best and literally a ticking time bomb at worst. Pakistan has nuclear weapons and some say it is increasingly falling into a state of anarchy. Meanwhile, the US is pondering taking action against terrorists near its border with Afghanistan.

Exiled former presidents including Benazzir Bhuto could easily muster support from the population and incite a popular uprising against the incumbent general Musharraf, who took power in 1999 in a coup d’etat. Discontent with the current government is growing every day among the Pakistani population.

The pressure’s on for President Musharraf, both at home and outside due to obligations to combat terrorism. A few days ago general Musharraf sent a strong message to the world indicating that all was not well when he cancelled a meeting with tribal leaders in Afghanistan, to reportedly make preparations for imposing emergency law. One day later he ruled out this option.

The desperation has been building in recent weeks. Pakistan’s leader has been looking to the outside world for support; frenetic talks with the US administration were followed by an alleged deal with the former leader Benazzir Bhuto. The upshot has been that Pakistani leaders themselves have subjected their foreign policy to a strict review. At the same time however everyone was aware that they were conducting the meeting as the all too familiar accusation that Pakistan is playing a double game over Al Queda and the Taliban was beginning to become truly damaging to the incumbent Pakistani leadership.

At a recent record long meeting of the National Assembly, the country’s rulers decided not to change one iota to their foreign policy course. Which is the direct opposite of US goals in many respects. It’s what struck a chord with the Pakistani population which is increasingly alienated from the incumbent governement’s policies. Foreign Minister Khursid Mahmood Kasuri wasn’t exactly talking to the walls when he listed ‘examples of Pakistani independent decision making’. He cited Pakistan’s disagreements with the US administration over the Iraq war, the Iranian nuclear issue, refusal to send troops to Iran, the planned Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, a UN Security Council resolution on the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by non-state actors, a comprehensive convention against terrorism, last year’s Israeli attack on Lebanon and the question of Palestine.

These issues have broad based backing of the Pakistan population which is increasingly loath to another tenure of a government that does not represent its opinions. Anti Western sentiment is growing in Pakistani’s, who are also angered over the vast amount of US sponsor money which goes to the military rather than to humanitarian aid. The ticking time bomb theory recently gained momentum all the more after the US threat to strike Taliban bases, talk that is also making its way into the rhetoric of the US Presidential election campaigns.

What came out of the record long foreign policy session of the Assembly can be seen as a roadmap for future developments. Outside meddling in Pakistani affairs is unlikely to soon be over whatever the political landscape turns out to be. It is closely linked with the islamic militants that live in tribe controlled areas like the North West Frontier Province. This is rife with al Queda backed tribal insurgency that spills over into Afghanistan.

Musharraf’s political opposition is mass supported and proposes Islamic government which threatens to retaliate the April storming of the Red Mosque in Islamabad. Musharraf’s betting that he will be re elected by the outgoing parliament and provincial assemblies, but if this happens a popular uprising is almost surely going to take place. The President’s recent move to do away with Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry was met with fierce opposition which was the trigger for grassroots democracy movements demanding elections. These groupings claimed their first victory when Musharraf was overruled.

And if Musharraf had hoped for an excuse to proclaim the state of emergency when he sent armed troops to storm the Red Mosque, a move surely designed in part to appease the US, he miscalculated. Insurgency is only taking on a new sinistre edge as some 600 students have reportedly signed up as suicide bombers as a result. Every leader in the Islamic world knows what an uncurable situation this brings.

It’s ironic that Musharraf has made such an issue of sticking to military rule and his military uniform because despite the army’s support, many police nowadays in areas of conflict refuse to put on their uniforms because these make them targets of suicide bombers. Suicide bombings took off this year especially. Since January 21 attacks have taken place killing 225 people. The Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao was narrowly missed in March when a bomber blew himself up in Charsadda, not far from NWFP’s capitol Peshawar.

Some say the internal strife shows that Musharraf is getting a taste of his own medicine, because he allegedly sponsors suicide bombing missions into Afghanistan. But Pakistani officials accuse the Afghanis of the same crime.

The increasingly isolated leader’s really workable options to stay in power include a deal with the exiled former president of the country Benazir Bhutto. The two have reportedly been in talks but it’s not clear if a deal is in the offing. Bhuto was interviewed by YaleGlobal and warned that the country might undergo a Ukranian style Orange revolution ‘with a difference’. She said on the record that she intends to return to Pakistan ‘for saving my country from a militant takeover [and] god forbid, disintegration”.

It will be interesting to see how the next few months go. Bhuto was hesitant to applaud grassroots democracy movement all to soon, saying that street action might incite the imposition of emergency law all the more. General Musharraf decided to abandon the option of emergency law, breathing a sigh of relief worldwide, but nothing’s cast in stone and it’s usually street riots that justify such action.

In the next months Pakistan’s leadership is likely to fly by the seat of their pants all the more, in a situation fraught with obsessions of what the future will hold.

Musharraf’s days might soon be over, some observers say. They explain the recent desperate actions by the Pakistani leader as his swan song. Consultations with the US president and Foreign Secretary and high ranking officials were frantic a week ago but President Bush reiterated his support for free and fair elections. For the past years the implications of the internal strife have been largely ignored because of Pakistan’s important role in the war against terror, but the expiry of Mr Musharraf’s self appropriated tenure is all the more pressurized for it.

General Musharraf’s biggest threat yet might turn out to be the supreme court. The UK’s Telegraph reports that’a single one of several cases awaiting adjudication could bring down the general’.

At the moment an important meeting is being hosted in Afghanistan at the request of Washington. Some 500 tribal leaders, who are key to issues concerning law and order are meeting in what’s called a Jirga, a traditional council. It is hoped that these 'wise men' develop a grip on the situation. General Musharraf cancelled, saying he had more pressing issues to deal with at home, setting off the flurry of anxiety that he mightdecide to impose emergency law.