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Political Summersaults in Pakistan

Muhammad Zain - 8/15/2007

The so-called secret meeting between former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and President General Pervez Musharraf in Dubai heralds the beginning of a new power sharing deal in Pakistan. However, it remains to be seen what General Pervez Musharraf has in store for her, as her desire to come to power by any means matches the longing of General Musharraf for prolonging his rule, as long as possible, at all costs.

When Benazir Bhutto rules out a power-sharing agreement while Pervez Musharraf remains the army chief, then a question arises – what is the logic of initiating talks with an army general who has visibly weakened and already on his way out? When all his aides, including foreign 'friends', have apparently ditched him, she is attempting to 'reinforce defeat.' She must understand that even talk of a deal with the military government can severely hit her vote bank, which has traditionally been against the establishment. The uniform of the president was also no problem for her, as many observers believe that a resurrected judiciary will not allow his re-election in military uniform. But she argues, "It's very important to deal with who's there. He is the person there and if we can find a way to get the uniformed presidency out of the picture, we can find a way to get democracy back."

To justify her negotiations for return to Pakistan , in an interview to a German magazine, she warned of a looming Islamist revolution mounted from the country's madrassas. She said she was planning her return to Pakistan to help stabilise the country in the face of the extremist threat. No doubt, militancy is a problem in Pakistan. General Ziaul Haq promoted it at the behest of the US and Saudi Arabia as official policy to fight the Soviet army in Afghanistan. Religious extremism was officially promoted and sponsored for years and it will take years, perhaps decades, to uproot. General Musharraf took some cosmetic measures, but banned religious and political organizations continued working in different names, without any serious crackdown. He has been in power for eight years for his service of fighting a war on terror and extremism. However, everybody knows that there is no chance of an Islamist revolution in the country, but Benazir Bhutto is magnifying the problem, as General Musharraf did, for a share of the cake.

The Wall Street Journal, in its article, Endgame for Musharraf?, writes, "Islamists aren't believed to be widely popular today ‑ Islamist political parties won just 11% of the vote in the 2002 legislative elections ‑ moderates worry that prolonged authoritarian rule by General Musharraf could weaken existing political parties and build extremists' appeal, just as the authoritarian rule of Egypt's Hosni Mubarak has weakened democratic opposition while building the appeal of extremist groups, like Muslim Brotherhood."

However, western diplomats hope that an alliance between General Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto will produce a broad-based secular government that might stem Pakistan's 'rising tide of Islamic militancy.' A key sticking point has been General Musharraf's reluctance to resign from the army, the source of his greatest strength, to meet demands for a return to civilian rule. However, the reinstatement of the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, has cast doubt on his plans to be re-elected when his term expires in October. The National Assembly is scheduled to be dissolved in November and general elections will be held in December or January.

However, any deal between the government and the PPP will require changes to the constitution to lift a ban on anyone serving as prime minister more than twice and to shelve corruption charges against Benazir Bhutto. There was speculation that the two sides had agreed to an interim prime minister to oversee the election period, with reports suggesting Hamid Nasir Chattha, a former parliamentary speaker, was being lined up for the job.

Federal Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, Dr Sher Afgan Khan Niazi said President Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto were trying to negotiate a deal in which she would support his bid for another presidential term and, in return, the president would pave the way for her return from exile and become prime minister for the third time.

Meanwhile, a US think-tank says President Pervez Musharraf has been weakened to the point that he is forced to seek a compromise with his opponents in an effort to salvage his government. In its latest report on Pakistan, Stratfor claims that President Musharraf has no option but to seek the help of mainstream political forces to deal with the growing crisis of governance and militancy.

"The recent tensions with Washington over the US threats to engage in unilateral military action against jihadists in the northwest ‑ which quickly followed the restoration of the Supreme Court's chief justice ‑ seem to have been the last straw," the report said.

The think-tank claimed that in their latest meeting, corps commanders and agency heads had asked General Musharraf to step down. But stepping down does not necessarily mean that President Musharraf would leave the political scene altogether. "Rather, he will be forced to relinquish the post of army chief and try to stay on as a civilian president while sharing powers with a coalition government, led by former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, following parliamentary elections."

The report, however, warns that it is difficult to say if President Musharraf will be successful in his efforts to reach a compromise "as these efforts could be too little too late."

Developments in the last few months have shaken the 'iron man' of Pakistan. Suicide attacks on security personnel in tribal areas and other parts of the country, the Lal Masjid operation and the reinstatement of the Chief Justice by the Supreme Court of Pakistan, forced him to opt for talks with one of his archrivals and extending the olive branch to the other.
However, many observers called the meeting a retreat for the general in view of his repeated declarations that Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif would not be allowed to return home as long as he was in power. It is irony that he himself had to dash to Daubai to talk to Benzir Bhutto and send his emissary, Mushahid Hussain, to Nawaz Sharif, who rejected his olive branch by turning down a government offer of an open field to his party in the coming general elections. It has, really, raised the status of Nawaz Sharif as a popular leader, but he will have to get rid of people, like Fazlur Rehman, a known 'secret weapon' of the establishment, to flourish in the politics.