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Pakistan 's political crisis worsens

Muhammad Zain - 9/4/2007

Pakistan 's political crisis has deepened after exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto announced returning home even if she failed to strike a power-sharing deal with President General Pervez Musharraf. Her announcement came on the heel of another exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's scheduled homecoming on September 10. The situation has left President General Pervez Musharraf, a key US ally on its so-called war on terror, facing a double-edge sword, honed by a proactive judiciary.

Pakistan , in fact, finds itself in a situation where all possible solutions to the crisis look hollow and temporary. The clash of interests has reached a point where one crisis leads to another, raising serious apprehensions about the future of the country as a sovereign and democratic state. The only way out is a fair and free election, offering a level playing field to all political parties in the country.

However, the problem for the establishment will compound if the election is held in a free and fair manner, as it would result in a landslide victory for anti-establishment political parties, including the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) of Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) of Nawaz Sharif. In a free and fair election, the PPP or the PML-N will form government in Pakistan. There is no doubt about it, even in the establishment. It is also wary of the pro-people and pro-democracy role of the Supreme Court of Pakistan.

In such a case, transfer of power will not take place in Pakistan . If the new government strived for power, it would lead to martial law, an option always available to a ruling general. So, Pakistan will be back to square one, rather facing a new crisis after a few months of a free and fair election. The problem for politicians and political parties in Pakistan is that they are not powerful enough to snatch power from the establishment or maintain it. They lack democratic culture in their ranks and popular support to wage a struggle for power sharing with the establishment. In the situation, a power-sharing formula, suitable to all stakeholders, eludes Pakistan.

As far Benazir Bhutto is concerned, she was willing to cut a power-sharing deal with President General Musharraf, which was acceptable to both, though she was under fire in her own party for dealing with a military ruler. Talks for the deal, reportedly pushed by the US and Britain, ran into trouble after the ruling Pakistan Muslim League opposed her demands that General Musharraf shed his uniform before his re-election, abandon his powers to dissolve the National Assembly and allow premiers to serve a third term.

The issue of General Mushrraf's uniform is a contentious issue in Pakistan . He is a powerful president because of his uniform. The ruling party can win the next election only on the basis of his uniform. It is a lifeline for General Pervez Musharraf and his party. If he leaves his uniform, Pakistan will be an entirely different playground for him and his party. The ruling party has also revived its contacts with the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a pro-establishment alliance of religious parties, which helped President General Musharraf become president in uniform in exchange for 'accommodating' them in the 2002 election. The religious parties have never won a more number of seats in Pakistan's history than in the last election, thanks to the establishment, which wanted a role for them after a clampdown on mainstream political parties, the PPP and the PML-N.

However, the question is that will the MMA provide the required number of seats to the ruling party for its bid to re-elect General Musharraf in uniform? Then, there is another question that whether his re-election will be possible through the existing assemblies which complete their term in December? The total number of seats is 342, of which the PPP bagged 80 seats, the ruling PML-Q got 118, the MMA 59, the PML-N 18, the National Alliance (NA), which merged into the ruling party, 16, and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), a coalition party in the government, managed 13 seats. So, if the MMA votes for him, General Musharraf can be re-elected president in uniform for another five years.

However, his re-election from the current assemblies looks a far-fetched idea, keeping in view the judicial activism in the country. After the Supreme Court verdict allowing Nawaz Sharif and his family to return to Pakistan, it is the writing on the wall that he cannot be re-elected in uniform as his dual office has been taken up by the court.

On other hand, the presence of both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto in the country will weaken General Musharraf and his party in days. His artificial setup cannot face real democratic forces; it will cave in like a house of cards. However, there is still some chance of a deal between Benazir Bhutto and General Musharraf, as she said she would announce her schedule for return on September 14, four days after the arrival of the Sharifs.

Against the backdrop of a lenient attitude of Benazir Bhutto, Nawaz Sharif sticks to his guns; he is not in favour of sharing power with the military. In his last term, he had adopted a collision course with the judiciary, the presidency and the military, his mentor, on the strength of a two-third majority in parliament. He conquered the judiciary, ousted an army general and had ordered removal of the other, when the army toppled his government. However, it is yet to be seen how he copes with a more vibrant judiciary than it was in 1988.

However, General Musharraf is between the devil and the blue deep sea; he is doomed if he accepts Benazir's demands and if he imposes martial law, as a last resort, it will also lead to his ouster in a few months. The only way out for him is leave both offices and pave the way for an elected government, which could resolve all outstanding issues, including terrorism, with popular support.