Home >> South Asia >> India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal  Email  Print Musharraf’s Million Woes Saberi Roy - 9/20/2007 Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf seems to be facing too many pressures even though there are speculations that he will relinquish his army post to become a more acceptable civilian president. But does this assurance help in improving Musharraf’s image? And will the people of Pakistan still accept him after elections? There were reports of Musharraf negotiating with Bhutto and Sharif expressing his desire to hold on to the throne of the President and the Bhutto camp may not accept this. So like Nawaz Sharif will Bhutto be sent back too when she attempts return to Pakistan? Probably she will be allowed to return and if so, will that change the dynamics of the situation any further?
Musharraf is now flanked by several problems. His roster of political problems looks somewhat like this:
He has to keep Bush, Condi Rice and the US happy
He has to keep a close eye on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and dismantle terrorist groups and deal with the thousands of Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants
He has to negotiate cleverly with Afghan tribal leaders who harbor a soft spot for Osama bin Laden
He has to sort out problems with India on the Kashmir issue
He has to save his own life against repeated death threats and assassination attempts
He has to project himself as ‘People’s president’ rather than an army general
He has to keep the EU leaders happy who are displeased with his treatment of political opponents
He has to handle political opponents like Sharif and his followers and Bhutto and her party members and the strategies will have to be different
He has to amend his strained relationship with the Supreme Court after his failed attempt to sack the chief justice, and finally
He has to keep his presidential post despite being an army chief and seek legal ways so that elections don’t affect his position
There are too many problems for Musharraf following his blunders which seem to have made the president unpopular both in his country and abroad.
Musharraf seems to have made many political blunders. The roster of his political blunders looks somewhat like this:
He made a failed attempt to sack the Supreme Court top judge
He waited for the Al-Qaeda members to regroup before taking any definite action and now the Taliban and Al-Qaeda have a safe haven in Pakistan
His Red Mosque operation came a bit too late as by now Al-Qaeda philosophy has developed deeper roots and this is why the operation made him unpopular
His repeated negotiations to remain President may look a bit too desperate
The deportation of Nawaz Sharif may be yet another blunder. Even though Nawaz Sharif is a strong opponent, his deportation has made the general even more unpopular in his country
His inaction in clamping down terrorists hasn’t quite pleased the US and his action against political opponents has displeased EU leaders
How can Musharraf tackle all these political problems at the moment? Well, he may have some way out. The roster of his possible political solutions looks somewhat like this:
He has to show tougher action against the Al-Qaeda militants and eradicate them from Pakistan completely. This would be a Herculean task and considering that Musharraf is more focused on his leadership rather than the war on terror, there is very little possibility that Musharraf will continue his operations against the militants in any definitive manner, at least not within the next 3- 4 months. This again can increase terrorist activity in the region and subsequently US discomfort. So, for the time being Musharraf has to keep a close eye on terrorist activity possibly with an extensive intelligence network and use US aid as well to monitor terrorist activities even if he may not want to take direct action against terrorist groups at this time.
However Musharraf’s term ends by November and in order to remain in power and thus to maintain any political action, he has to get re-elected as President. So in order to remain in power he has to overcome the legal and political hurdles. This again seems almost impossible considering the Supreme Court may not be with him and his political opponents are fuming. He may have to resume talks with Bhutto or even Sharif although whether he can legally get re-elected as President even if he steps down as army chief will remain to be seen. At the moment it looks like advantage Bhutto and Sharif will soon follow although Sharif’s possibilities don’t look too bright at the moment. Musharraf simply has to take extra pains to amend his relationship with the legal authorities in the country and this is something he has been doing already.
Musharraf should allow Bhutto into Pakistan and this way he can win back support of the EU leaders and the people of Pakistan in general.
Musharraf has to resume talks with Afghan tribal leaders if and when he regains confidence in the stability of his own leadership and assure the US in a subtle way that he will work his way through to find Osama and his people who are under the protection of Afghan tribal leaders.
Although Musharraf can allow the Kashmir issue to thaw a bit, one thing he must do is find ways to increase his connection with the people of Pakistan. This can be difficult considering the assassination attempts and threats to his life so other ways like the media may be a good start and he can use the media to put his message across to the people and increase his popularity among Pakistanis.
All this might sound a bit like a desperate last minute attempt to save his leadership but Musharraf’s 8 years of power seem to have lacked any real effort to change Pakistan’s social and political climate. Musharraf was largely hibernating sort of, concerned only with his own leadership rather than transforming himself to a real political leader engaged in developing the nation, cracking down on terrorists or improving relations with neighboring or EU countries. Only time will tell whether he will get a second chance to undo or correct his mistakes.
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