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Uncertainty grips Pakistan

Muhammad Zain - 9/27/2007

Pakistan has reached a critical juncture of its history, where developments on political and judicial fronts in the next few days and weeks will define its future as a progressive and democratic state or a country doomed to military rule. The situation is uncertain, not only for President General Pervez Musharraf who is seeking his re-election in uniform from the present assemblies on October 6, but also for the opposition which has failed to evolve a joint strategy for resignations against his re-election. However, both parties are anxiously awaiting a Supreme Court verdict on a petition against his two offices – President and Chief of Army Staff.

President General Musharraf faces a real threat from the Supreme Court, which can bar him from running for the presidential election in military uniform. Some analysts believe the court will bar him from holding two offices, as it has already declared the Seventeenth Amendment, under which parliament had allowed him to keep two offices, undemocratic and illegal.

Common people are also expecting the Supreme Court to rule against General Pusharraf as the court has shown unprecedented activism in Pakistan's history after the suspension of Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry in June. The court established its autonomy by reinstating the Chief Justice, releasing PML-N leader Javed Hashmi in August and then allowing his party chief Nawaz Sharif to return from seven years in exile. However, the court authority was challenged by the government when it bundled Nawaz into a plane to Saudi Arabia when he arrived at the Islamabad airport on September 10.

However, some political observers say the court cannot overrule the Seventeenth Amendment, as it only has the powers to interpret the constitution and amendments, but cannot scrape any change made by parliament. To explain their point, they cite the two petitions dismissed by the court against Mushrraf's re-election. The court dismissed, without explanation, a petition calling for General Musharraf's immediate suspension. The other dismissed plea had argued the courts failed to do enough to stop the Seventeenth Amendment.

Besides the court challenge, General Mushrraf also faces a formidable test by the opposition and lawyers, who will take the fight to the streets of the country. The All Parties Democratic Alliance (APDM), which was formed on a one-point agenda to oust General Musharraf from power, has failed to evolve a strategy on resignations from assemblies against his re-election. It announced resignations on September 29, but Maulana Fazlur Rehman, whose party, the JUI-F, heads the NWFP government and is a major coalition partner in the Balochistan government, said he was not consulted on the issue. In all likelihood, Fazl, who helped General Mushrraf keep two offices through the Seventeenth Amendment, will not opt for resignations. He is the best player of deception – working for the establishment in the role of opposition leader. His presence in the APDM will ensure its failure on all fronts. However, a court decision against General Mushrraf can save the face of the opposition in the public.

If the opposition resigns en bloc, the government has the option of extending the tenure of the present assemblies by one year, in two periods of six months each. In this case, elections will be delayed at least for one year.

However, after the announcement by the opposition to resist the re-election, police have arrested dozens of opposition leaders and workers. Many leaders were arrested under 30-day detention orders. The police raided houses of hundreds of activists and harassed their families while many opposition figures have gone underground to avoid arrests. However, Deputy Information Minister Tariq Azeem claimed, "These people were threatening to storm the Supreme Court and attack the Election Commission. No government can allow people to take the law into their own hands."

Meanwhile, in a rare criticism of the Mushrraf government, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice termed the detention of opposition workers and leaders in Pakistan "troubling." In another statement, the US embassy said the arrests were "extremely disturbing and confusing for the friends of Pakistan". The European Union also expressed concern, urging the government to follow a legal course. The statements, especially from the US, are welcome in Pakistan , as the US has always sided with the military government against the people of Pakistan. However, the US needs to 'do more' if it really wishes to see democracy flourish in Pakistan.

On the other hand, lawyers filed former Supreme Court judge Wajihuddin Ahmad against General Musharraf in the election. Though the former judge has no chance of beating the general, yet he symbolizes the lawyers' resolve to continue their struggle against military rule in Pakistan. Justice (retd) Wajeehuddin Ahmed was among few judges who had refused to show allegiance to General Musharraf when he dismissed the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in 1999. He said he had no illusions about winning the October 6 polls, but wanted pro-democracy lawyers to win their first battle in a long-drawn war against dictatorship.

Like the opposition, the lawyers are also divided on party lines after their heroic struggle for the restoration of the Chief Justice. As the PPP has cut a deal with the government and is avoiding a clear-cut strategy on resignations, it has weakened the lawyers' movement. As expected, Lahore High Court Bar Association (LHCBA) President Ahsen Bhoon and Senator Latif Khosa, both from the PPP, denounced the lawyers' National Action Committee and refused to support its call to protest outside the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) building in Islamabad. Only 100 lawyers participated in it.

The current developments seem to be leading to one crisis to the other. It appears that even the next elections will fail to solve political turmoil in Pakistan. However, one can pin hopes on the next polls when there will be no general on the political scene of the country.