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Managing Presidential Elections in Pakistan

Rahul Bhonsle - 10/10/2007

The cat is now out of the bag on Pakistan’s Presidential elections. Pakistan Muslim League (PML) President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain in a press conference at Prime Minister’s House on 7 October stated that the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) of 2007 was a master stroke to divide the opposition and get President Musharraf elected. “We wanted to gain political mileage from [the NRO], and we were successful because President Musharraf got votes from all parts of the country and the opposition could not make the election controversial,” said Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz as per a report in the Daily Times. It is reported that later Shujaat Hussain told Musharraf that this was intended to be a joke. So what could explain this statement by Shujaat? Political leaders at the national level could not be expected to joke about such important issues as the NRO at a press conference. Obviously the game plan has now been placed before the public.


Having committed before the Supreme Court that, President Gen Pervez Musharraf’s term is due to end on 15 November, Presidential elections were inevitable in Pakistan. 6 October was announced as the date for elections by the Election Commission. Three front-runners have emerged; General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan People’s Party leader Makhdoom Amin Fahim and Justice (r) Wajeehuddin Ahmad fielded by the lawyers community. Senate Chairman Muhammadmian Soomro is the covering candidate for the president while Faryal Talpur, sister of Asif Ali Zardari and district nazim of Nawabshah, is the covering candidate for Fahim.

The election was by a ballot of Pakistan's parliament and its four provincial assemblies. Given the composition of the Pakistani National Assembly and the provincial assemblies, re-election of President Musharraf was assured. Even the bookies in Karachi, one of the largest betting centres in South Asia indicated a win for Musharraf. A last minute hitch is likely to be mass resignations by the APDM in National and provincial assemblies did not deter leaders of the ruling party and Musharraf. The PPP also abstained from voting in the wake of the NRO. Musharraf won by an overwhelming margin of votes sweeping the opposition off the floor. However the victory may be facetious as it were only the ruling party legislators who voted. While the Supreme Court has withheld verdict on his eligibility thereby placing another spoke in the wheel, which analysts feel is only a matter of routine as on 17 October, a verdict in favour of Musharraf is likely to be declared.

The campaign to ensure a smooth victory for President and Chief of the Army Staff, Pervez Musharraf was managed with great political suaveness by Pakistan’s political managers based in the President’s Office, the General Headquarters and the Inter Services Intelligence. The first stage of the same was marginalisation of the Sharifs. A Pakistani anti-terrorism court on 7 September issued arrest warrants for Shahbaz Sharif, brother of former premier Nawaz Sharif, before their scheduled return from exile on 10 September. When Nawaz Sharif arrived at Islamabad alone on 10 September he was arrested and deported to Saudi Arabia after four-and-a-half hours of drama at the airport in which key officials of the intelligence agencies figured.

Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said the government did not force former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to return to Saudi Arabia but he returned on his own choice. However Mr Sharif is said to have refused to leave Pakistan and was willing to go to jail and face the cases brought against him. Lawyers for Nawaz Sharif filed a petition in the Supreme Court on 11 September challenging his deportation to Saudi Arabia.

The government was negotiating a pact with Benazir Bhutto which did not materialize till the last minute. A key reason was resistance of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League Qaid legislators who aware that in case Benazir returns to Pakistan their fate would be sealed Public opinion supported by the factor of anti incumbency was clearly giving the advantage to the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Thus they had very categorically indicated to President Musharraf that unless their political future was secured, they would not allow the pact to be inked. Benazir is now attempting to create a political coalition even hobnobbing with Nawaz Sharif. A National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) which grants amnesty to, “all those in public life” who have neither been tried nor convicted by courts, clears route for return of Benazir to Pakistan, her support to Musharraf as President is assured, though PPP has initially rejected the NRO. With Benazir inside the country, the PML Q will have to count its days. Musharraf may not be averse to this idea as for him the Kings party as they were called for the past five years would have outlived their utility once he is elected as the President.

Legally the position of Musharraf for a second tenure was considered untenable. This hurdle was overcome with an amendment by the Election Commission to the Presidential Election Rules 1988 which indicated that Article 63 of the Constitution no longer applies to the president. Article 63 lays down various conditions under which a person can be disqualified from being a member of parliament. With the amendment in clause (a), sub-rule (3) of rule 5 of the Presidential Election Rules 1988, the returning officer for the election can no longer conduct a summary inquiry or reject any nomination paper if the candidate is subject to disqualification from being elected as, or from being, a member of parliament as provided in Article 63 of the Constitution. The chief election commissioner amended the rules with the approval of President General Pervez Musharraf. Technically thus this hurdle was removed by shifting the goal posts.

The final obstacle was the Supreme Court. A nine-member bench headed by Justice Rana Bhagwandas heard petitions challenging President’s General Pervez Musharraf’s two offices, Chief of Army Staff and President and rejected the applications made by the appellant thereby paving the way for nomination. However appeals remain to be addressed which will be done by 17 October. A favourable verdict is expected, as the Courts are in favour of smooth transition rather than political turmoil.

But there is also a cover plan. The government informed the Supreme Court on 18 September that President General Pervez Musharraf will relinquish the office of the Chief of Army Staff if he is re-elected as President for second term. This was also followed by a statement to the Supreme Court on 25 September by Attorney General Malik Mohammad Qayyum that Musharraf will remain the Chief of Army Staff if not re-elected as President for the second term. So President or Chief of the Army Staff one of the two most powerful offices in Pakistan will remain with the Musharraf.

Disarray in Opposition has assisted Musharraf’s campaign. The Opposition parties have not been able to muster their strength or strategy. 290 members of the national and provincial assemblies of the component parties of the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) have submitted their resignations. The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) on 26 September announced that the legislators of the religious alliance would resign en bloc from the National Assembly on September 29. PPP chairperson, Benazir Bhutto on the other hand said after General Musharraf files his nomination papers, the PPP would decide whether it would resign from the present Parliament or whether it would boycott the elections thus keeping the options open. The PPP would not vote for General Musharraf as President from this Parliament unless there is a constitutional amendment but it would not resign if he took the necessary steps to show that he was moving toward fair elections and a level-playing field.

Seeing the mood of the APDM, the police arrested at least 70 leaders and activists in a crackdown on 22 September and also clashed with lawyers and journalists on 29 September. APDM leaders were arrested in the early hours of 23 September. The Supreme Court has taken suo moto notice of both these incidents, however the government remains defiant.

The last stage of the fall back plan is placing Musharraf loyalists in top appointments in the Pakistan Army and the ISI. Lt Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani has been nominated as the Vice Chief of Army Staff and will take over from Musharraf if he resigns as the COAS on election as President. Kiyani has also been a military secretary to Benazir Bhutto when she was the Prime Minister and was a principal negotiator on behalf of President Musharraf with the PPP. Lt Gen Nadeem Taj has been appointed as ISI DG. He is believed to be a very close confidant of President Musharraf and was his military secretary when the latter had taken over as Chief Executive on October 12, 1999. Lt-Gen Tariq Majid has been nominated for the post of Joint Chiefs of Staff as a four-star general. He will head the group controlling Pakistan’s strategic nuclear assets and is another Musharraf loyalist. That all these generals are also the favourites in Washington could be more than mere coincidence.

So the re-election campaign for President Musharraf masterminded with military precision from the GHQ in Rawalpindi will certainly succeed in putting him back in the Chair. The new hierarchy in the army would be more than keen to ensure that a favourable verdict is obtained from the Supreme Court as this would rid them of the shackles of their old boss breathing down their necks, continuing as the Chief of the Army Staff, a post which ironically has no age bars.

But the key battles are ahead. The first is a counter terrorism campaign which will have to be spearheaded by the Army and the second is the political battle of assembly elections likely in end December. A smooth transition will dictate the political future of Pakistan, while as far as the militancy goes; there is a long haul ahead.