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Home >> Middle East >> Iran Iran: Conservative Victory is Likely in 2005 Presidential Elections Stephan Rabimov - 2/27/2005 June 17, 2005 has been announced as the date for Iran's presidential election, which the conservatives seem likely to win. Although many candidates are planning to run for Iran's presidency, the majority will be from the conservative ranks, consolidating their power in an already "reformist-frail" government. A tight competition is likely between Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a conservative-leaning pragmatist and Ali Larijani, former head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, who is preferred by the conservative alliance. On January 1, 2005, Iran's legislative supervisory body, the Guardian Council, announced that Iran's presidential elections would be held on June 17, 2005, where a conservative victory is anticipated. President Mohammad Khatami, a reformist, is ineligible to run again, having already served the maximum of two four-year terms. Due to Khatami's failed economic and social reforms, many are disappointed with the reformist government, giving momentum to the conservative agenda. The former president [1989-1997] Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who in recent years served as head of the Expediency Council, is gaining unmatched support of both conservative and reformist alliances, and hence he is expected to be the front-runner, but has yet to formally declare his candidacy. However, he may face a strong challenge from Dr. Ali Larijani, former head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, who is widely expected to be the conservative camp's preferred candidate if the former president decides to enter the race. As a challenge to certain conservative candidates' competition for the Iran's presidential seat, four reformist politicians have so far officially declared their candidacies: the former education minister, Dr Mostafa Moin (supported by Islamic Iran Participation Front and Mojahedin of the Islamic Revolution Organization), and the former Majlis speaker, Mehdi Karroubi (supported by MCS, Islamic Association of Engineers, and Majma'-e Gorooh-haa-ye Khat-te Emam). Moin, who served in Khatami's government for six years, was the first reformer to announce officially his decision to run - on December 28, and to choose Mohammad Reza Khatami as his First Vice President if he is elected. The other reformist candidates are Mostafa Kavakebian, member of Democracy Party (hezb-e mardomsâlâri), and Mohsen Mehralizadeh, Vice-President and Head of the National Sports Organization, member of IIPF. Mehralizadeh has annouced that he will be running for the post on behalf of the Iranian younger generation, but not if the reformist alliance reaches consensus on another candidate. The Coordination Council of Islamic Revolution Forces Committee, a conservative alliance watchdog, has announced its intention to reach a consensus on one candidate to back. There are currently five hopefuls: former foreign minister Ali Akbar Vilayati; former director of state radio and television Dr Ali Larijani; the Mayor of Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad; Expediency Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaie; and leading MP Ahmad Tavakoli, who lost to Khatami in 2001. Larijani, the front-runner, is a hard line advisor to Iran's supreme leader; Dr. Ali Larijani is seen by many as the conservatives' favored candidate. Another possible candidate, who has not yet openly declared his intention to run, is former president [1989-1997] Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, now Chair of the Expediency Council. Rafsanjani who was once considered more of a reformist-oriented politician (during his presidency, he instituted some modest social reforms and maintained a relatively assuaging attitude towards the West), has now moved closer to the conservative establishment since the last presidential elections. It is likely that a conservative candidate will win on June 17th, 2005, as citizens are disenchanted about Khatami's government's failure to deliver real change in socio-economic issues. Conservatives control most of the other government power in current Iran, especially, after gaining a majority in the Majlis in February 2004. Chances are strong that a hard line president with a support of an already conservative Majlis would yield some unfavorable domestic and international policies on nuclear technology or toward social, economic, and political legislation. If the reformists are defeated, long-term implications are certain, as well as the probability of political unrest. It is clear that a conservative victory would raise that probability, provided reformists will continue to seek ways to challenge the result.
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