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Shia Bid For Power in Post-Hariri Lebanon

Manuela Paraipan - 3/1/2005

In the post-Hariri era, it's not the Sunnis or the Christians who will decide Lebanon's fate, as much as they would like to. It is Hezbollah, the Shia factor that will count the most. The sudden assassination of the former Prime Minister Rafik Al Hariri was a severe blow to Lebanon, the region and the world. Hariri was the most and the only decisive driving force in the reconstruction of Lebanon after the dark years of the civil war. As the most important economical entrepreneur, Hariri enjoyed widespread popularity and was loved and respected both, at home and abroad.

In November 2004 when Hariri decided to resign as Prime Minister in order to stand on the right side for the coming elections in May 2005, he was fully aware of the fact that he was taking a big risk; a fate that several before him had been subject to. However, his love for his country was stronger than the threats of his once friends, the Syrians.

Those who opposed any foreign influence in Lebanon ended up - either violently eliminated, or forced into exile. While, it is not have proved yet who is behind the assassination and it is doubtful that the present government is in a position to discover the truth, the general feeling on the Arab and Lebanese street is that Syria is behind the attack.

Since the Syrian Secret Service is the one who is in control in Lebanon, many believe it was virtually impossible for intelligence not to have known of the plans ahead of time. In effect it is the same as planning the attack itself. This just reaffirms one major point, the existence of the Syrian military troops and intelligence agents in Lebanon has no benefits at all to the Lebanese, not to mention the disadvantages, and hence it must be terminated.

Rafiq Al Hariri's political rhetoric against Syria was not radical, but rather moderate. He called for strong, neighbourly, diplomatic ties between two countries that share a similar culture, tradition and history. Both, Hariri and the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt were at some point in their lives close friends to Syria. However, none of them approved the current status quo when Lebanon became merely an extension of Syria with General Ghazaleh, the Syrian Chief of Intelligence taking the most important political decisions in Lebanon.

The Secretary General of Hezbollah, Sheikh Nasrallah has had a private meeting with Hariri few weeks before the incident. Hariri was willing to help Hezbollah on the international political stage. He credited Hezbollah as a resistance, not as a terrorist movement. Hariri did support the UN 1559 Resolution - more because it asked Syria's military and intelligence withdrawal and less because it asked a disarmed Hezbollah. Apparently, he asked Nasrallah to keep a low profile of the
military wing and emphasize the role of Hezbollah, the political party.

Walid Jumblatt and General Aoun are also trying to pull Hezbollah to the opposition camp if it agrees to disarm. This will make the pro-Syrian Lebanese regime week and will make Hezbollah more acceptable to the international community.

Last year, the Lebanese D.C based lobby for a free-Lebanon has finally succeeded in their effort to attract President Bush attention to the tainted relation between Syria and Lebanon. As the US pressured Syria to better guard the Iraqi border and to stop harbour the Iraqi Baathists, Hezbollah's situation worsened.

Post-Hariri Lebanon is divided into two camps; the ones who want to completely respect the UN 1559 Resolution and disarm Hezbollah, and obviously the majority of the Shi'ites who oppose, not the withdrawal of the Syrians, but the disarming of their militia.

The UN 1559 Resolution:
· Reaffirms its call for the strict respect of the sovereignty, territorial integrity, unity, and political independence of Lebanon under the sole and exclusive authority of the Government of Lebanon throughout Lebanon;
· Calls upon all remaining foreign forces to withdraw from Lebanon -- Syria
· Calls for the disbanding and disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias - Hezbollah
· Supports the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory;
· Declares its support for a free and fair electoral process in Lebanon's upcoming presidential election conducted according to Lebanese constitutional rules devised without foreign interference or influence;
· Calls upon all parties concerned to cooperate fully and urgently with the Security Council for the full implementation of this and all relevant resolutions concerning the restoration of the territorial integrity, full sovereignty, and political independence of Lebanon;


If, the May Parliamentary elections will be free, democratic, without foreign interference then the majority should decide what to do in regard to Hezbollah. If, the new elected Parliament will want a disarmed Shi'it militia, then Sheikh Nasrallah will eventually have to accept the majority's rule.

Many Lebanese political actors, Hariri included insisted on Hezbollah's presence as one of the main political parties. While, the Hezbollah's armed guerrilla's actions can be and should be taken by the Lebanese national army, it's political role is of tremendous importance for the Shi'it Lebanese community.

At the Ashoura last week festival, Sheikh Nasrallah said that the Syrian withdrawal would not necessarily lead "to internal unrest or commotion between the various Lebanese parties and communities. The national unity and civil peace will stay as solid and sturdy as it is today." Although an ally to Syria, Hezbollah is proving itself and the world that it has its own voice and is strong enough to take decisions without having the Syrian or the Iranian approval.

But, is it willing to sacrifice itself for the benefit of the Lebanese as a whole? Hezbollah's leader further declared "our responsibility and commitment for a nation make it obligatory for all parties to avoid further deterioration. God forbid, if the roof collapses, it collapses on all of us. Therefore, we must not repeat mistakes of the past. Let us discuss, calmly and rationally, the implementation of Resolution 1559 and the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon."

Nasrallah's message was a moderate one, but will Hezbollah engage in negotiations with Israel, then? Unlikely. Hassan Nasrallah sustains that at the top of his agenda is the Arab/Israeli conflict, better said the Israeli/ Palestinian conflict. Until this conflict is not solved, Lebanon will not engage in peace negotiations with Israel.

This leads to the next question. Why does the Lebanese Hezbollah care that much about the Palestinians? The ones who have visited the Palestinian refugees camps from Lebanon or talked with the Palestinians from Lebanon know that the reality proves otherwise. In Lebanon, the Palestinians are treated to the very least, inhumane by the government. Why is Nasrallah determined to risk the well fare of Lebanon for a fight is not his? The answer lies in Nasralalh's past, more exactly in
February 1992 when his son, Hadi Nasrallah together with other soldiers was killed in a confrontation with the Israeli army.

Hezbollah's Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah declared then "Hadi's death was in fact a victory for Hezbollah and the course of the resistance". He was right. His own personal drama empowered the resistance. While it is true that his Shi'it militia fought tooth and nail for the liberation of Lebanon's South with the Israeli Army, many seem to forget what droved this man. Before being a feared leader, he is a parent who lost a son.

The Shi'ites in Lebanon were always politically and economically neglected, in a country where the Christians and the Sunnis enjoyed better positions and greater influence political and economical. The situation changed when Hezbollah liberated the South. Sheikh Nasrallah is known as the only Arab who has fought a war and emerges victorious against Israel.

Hezbollah enjoys a lot of power, and it is reluctant to give it up. First, because it is human nature not to want to give up power, but secondly because after the war the Shiias for the first time felt that they had power and influence in Lebanon. Their worst fear is that without Hezbollah they will go back to how it was before.

"We gather today to express the people's will to protect the resistance movement against all attempts that aim at eliminating its presence and ending its role," Nasrallah told the thousands of people gathered at the Ashoura religious festival.

That is precisely what he will do. He will struggle to keep the current status quo of the Hezbollah; a political party and a militia. In this way, he is addressing the Shi'ites interest to become a dominant political group in Lebanon as well as his personal interests.

The United States is still having a hard time in Iraq fighting the insurgents, and it is neither willing, nor prepared to fight Hezbollah in the Bekaa Valley where it's major commandment is. If, it will find itself under military attack Hezbollah may activate its loyal cells from throughout the world, starting with the United States where it enjoy a lot of support among the Arabs, and continuing with Europe and Asia. Israeli tried the military alternative, only to find out that it has actually increased Hezbollah's profile and sympathy both in Lebanon and abroad. On the other hand, Hezbollah's current policy of not taking sides is not helping Lebanon. If Nasrallah will defy the international community act (UN 1559) it is actually inviting US, France or the UN peace keeping troops to enter Lebanon.

Although, Syria gets itself expelled from Lebanon, it has found two friends, Iran and Russia. Both, Tehran and Moscow declared their commitment to support Syria, in ant possible way. "We are ready to help Syria on all grounds to confront threats," Iranian Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref said after meeting Syrian PM Naji Al-Otari.

President Putin objective is to increase Russia's importance and to re-establish its position as a world power. In this direction, he has signed an agreement to seal Syria a new air defence missile system to Syria, despite the obvious Israeli and US opposition.

The US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, David Satterfield in his meeting with the Lebanese Maronite Cardinal Sfeir said that "Hezbollah's active engagement in acts of violence and terror directed against Israelis, from Gaza, from the West Bank, and within Israel, are destabilizing to the region, destabilizing to Lebanon and they need to stop and to stop immediately."

If Hezbollah will understand that it cannot act anymore, as a state within a state, then all Lebanese will win what they have long waited for: an independent, sovereign and democratic country.