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A Macedonian Fairy Tale

Boban Karapejovski - 11/7/2007

Once upon a time there was a small country called "the Oasis of Peace". This country was Macedonia. This fairy tale dates from the mid-`90 of the previous centrury, when Macedonia became the only country to secede from the Yugoslav breakdown without war and human casualties. This small polity (in terms of square kilometers) is again at the focus of international interest due to the process of solving the Albanian issue on the Balkans.

Following the conflict in 2001, after which the Constitution was changed, the Albanian population (25,17 percent of the overall population, according to the census in 2002), obtained all the rights that placed them in a position equal to the Macedonian majority (although they have had all minority and human rights even before). Now, there are some indications of a repetition of 2001 with armed groups stationed near the Kumanovo and Tetovo areas, according to some media, albeit yet not confirmed by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Kumanovo is situated in Northern Macedonia, around 40 km from the capital Skopje to the East. It sports a mixed ethnic composition, and predominantly Macedonian citizens. On the other hand, Tetovo is placed in North-Western Macedonia, about 45 km from the capital Skopje. It is also with a mixed ethnic composition, but has predominantly Albanian inhabitants. Both cities were in some way involved in the 2001 crisis.

Still, following the measures implemented from 2001 till now, the human rights of the Albanian minority are no longer an issue, and it is not the main problem of the country. We must try to put this Macedonian bit of everyday life in a regional context and attempt a regional political analysis, to grasp what is happening today in Macedonia: war psychosis, tensions and isolated incidents that have been happening during the last few weeks and in which criminal groups and the police have been involved.

The criminal background of the perpetrators and the imminent solution of the Kosovo issue are the pivots. Of course, there is a conspiracy theory that alleges the intentional creation of permanent instability in this part of Europe but which is not very realistic, given developments on the terrain.

The aforementioned conpiracy theory consists of two elements: the maintenance of a permanent international military owing to the fostered permanent instability, and the use of criminal groups in order to render trafficking easier across borders and thus foment said permanent instability.

The facts, though, imply otherwise.

The countries involved often serve as transit zones for the big West European countries and only a small share (though still big compared to the sizes of the local economies) of everything that goes through stays here. There is, therefore, another and far more plausible theory according to which this groups are just here to “make noise” and that they are only doing their “dirty criminal job”.

What about the Kosovo issue? Is there any chance that these are merely paramilitary splinters, hailing from there and here to make mischief? If you ask inhabitants of the Shara Mountain villages (the mountain just above Tetovo), they will tell you that there are some armed men in uniforms going ‘down’ into the villages from the mountain but they could not recognize many of them, alluding that they came from Kosovo.

Yet, the Albanians in Kosovo, a UN protectorate, are in the throes of negotiations about its final status. It would be completely insane of them to provoke this kind of troubles at this specific moment. Making a mess across the border is a sure way to show to the International community that, contrary to their previous statements, they are not factor of stability and democratic prosperity in the Balkans - but on the opposite.

They could apply some pressure in the North Western part of Macedonia and on the Kosovo-Macedonian border line to promote Kosovo as the only factor which could guarantee regional peace and stability but anything bigger in terms of military activities could prove backfire and send the wrong signal, a signal which suggests that they are troublemakers, immature, and, therefore, not ready to have an internationally recognized country of Kosovo as an independent state.

Thus, the negotiation process could be seriously jeopardized and their international image tarnished. It could well undermine the image that they would like to project. They surely have political analysts and advisors which inform them about these potential repercussions. I can imagine how the Serb side in the negotiations will use any serious incursion into Macedonia as the strongest argument against granting independence to Kosovo. Even now, the Serb mantra is that Kosovo “is Serbian territory under UN administration with dominant Albanian inhabitants where armed groups are trained and from where neighbor countries are (or could be) attacked at any moment”.

Of course, a quasi-military pressure may be used for sending a signal to those who are plotting a division of Kosovo into Serb and Albanian parts that Macedonia might suffer a similar destiny.

There have been weapons circulating around the Balkans ever since the mid-90’s, when the military warehouses and their overall contents were plundered during the civil war in Albania. Therefore, to a certain extent, the news from last week might be symptomatic: that 20 tones of explosives have been stolen again in Albania, this time from the warehouses of some construction firm.

The so called “Tsar Lazar army”, a Serbian paramilitary organization promoted in newspapers and on TV, could be merely a desperate media plea to restore some kind of balance on the paramilitary Balkan front, against ONA/ANA, the Albanian militia.

Finally: nobody starts a war in winter. If somebody is planning something, in all likelihood spring is the time for this kind of “bad stuff” due to the topology of the terrain and the harsh climate conditions.

It is in nobody’s interest to make war or conflict now. The Serbs are tired of fighting after all the wars they have been through, Macedonia has never (including now) had an interest in that kind of “sport” and the Albanians are not mad to send the wrong signal to the International community a propos their ability to promote and produce democratic values, peace and stability.