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Benazir's Bad Bargain

Muhammad Shafiq - 11/10/2007

PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto faces the toughest test of her political career after she has cut a power sharing deal with President General Pervez Musharraf, as she will have to wage a dedicated and long struggle, not only to keep her pro-people image in the country intact, but also save herself from the fate of General Musharraf who is heading fast to history's dustbin, like previous military generals of Pakistan.

It will be interesting to see whether she becomes a third-time prime minister only to share the burden of the establishment vis-a-vis the so-called war on terror, giving rise to more violence in society, which has lately crept into the settled parts of Pakistan after raging in its tribal areas for years.

As seen in Pakistan politics, the establishment always wants some scapegoat at hand, especially politicians, to blame its follies and share the burden of their flawed policies. PPP founder and former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was blamed and he is still held responsible for the breakup of Pakistan by many, thanks to his media trial, while he had absolutely no hand in the tragedy. It was General Ayub Khan who had laid the foundation of the separation of East Pakistan, now Bangladesh , by going to an unnecessary war with India and then withdrawing all troops from East Pakistan to defend the western part, giving them a message that their salvation lies only in the defence of West Pakistan. It created a sense of deprivation in East Pakistan and ultimately led to a struggle for a separate country. It was a general who had ordered a military operation in East Pakistan and it was another general who led the fiasco, in which millions of men were killed and women raped, but the blame was wrongly put on ZA Bhutto.

General Ziaul Haq set up a rubber stamp parliament and a prime minister, on world pressure, so that he could have a civilian to blame for his blunders in Afghanistan and at home. He left a legacy of Kalashnikov and heroin culture, corrupted all institutions, including parliament and the judiciary, and divided the nation on sectarian, religious and caste lines, abusing the name of Islam for enforcing the US agenda in the region and Pakistan.

General Musharraf is also fighting a US war in Pakistan. Seeing his failure, the US has apparently pushed him to strike a deal with Benazir Bhutto, so that the so-called war on terror could be made more effective, with the inclusion of a popular party in the government. But it is based on a flawed thinking, as like General Musharraf, Benazir Bhutto too has no effective plan to root out militancy in Pakistan. It is no secret that the establishment continues to promote a certain ideology in state mosques and madrassas of a particular sect. Only lip-service has been paid to eliminate sectarianism and militancy from society, as all banned organizations and militant groups continue to operate in different names.

Benazir Bhutto failed to provide relief to the people in her two terms as prime minister. In fact, her brother Murtaza Bhutto was killed by police in a dubious encounter when she was prime minister, and she saw helplessly. She also has not recovered from corruption charges from her two previous terms. The National Reconciliation Ordinance, which was promulgated by General Musharraf to provide relief to her in corruption cases at home and abroad, benefits some 1200 MQM workers, involved in murder, abduction and other heinous crimes. She benefited from it, no doubt, but it harmed her image beyond repair, while the maximum benefit was provided to the MQM and many others who are involved in corruption and are in the government. Analysts believe the NRO has damaged her reputation and she should have not sought pardon, as the cases could not be proved in a few months when they were not substantiated in the last eight years despite using state resources and machinery. Her chances of honorable acquittal were bright, especially after the judiciary has found some freedom from the executive.

She had left the country eight years ago when the country was still reaping the harvest of the Zia legacy, the Kalashnikov culture, which has transformed into suicide attacks during her absence from the country. She wants to reform society by providing education and employment to the people of Pakistan after coming to power in a fair and free election. But it appears that she has not learned from her past mistakes. How can she expect fair elections under a military general? Even if elections are held free, pre-poll rigging and a smear campaign, launched by the government, especially Punjab Chief Minister Ch Pervaiz Elahi, against the opposition, especially the PPP, will be a deciding factor in the polls.

The government released billions of rupees to its nazims and legislators to launch 'development projects' in their areas, especially in the last few months. So, the damage has already been done. If elections are held free, they will be half free or half rigged.

The Election Commission of Pakistan also took some measures which show that it is not interested in free and fair elections. First, it omitted millions of voters from the voter list, then it allowed General Pervez Musharraf to run for presidential elections in uniform and lastly, it framed a code of ethics, banning rallies, public meetings and criticism of military, judiciary and foreign rulers etc. If the code of ethics is enforced, it will confine the canvassing of all political parties to drawing-rooms.

The move will harm the PPP and the PPML-N, the most popular parties in Pakistan, which have a large following both in big cities and rural areas and save the blushes of the ruling party and its allies which are unpopular and loosing public support after the lawyers' movement for the restoration of democracy in Pakistan.

The blasts at her rally in Karachi, which killed over 150 people and injured over 200, set the tone for her future politics in Pakistan. She has blamed Intelligence Bureau DG Ijaz Shah, Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and Sindh Chief Minister Arbab Rahim for the tragedy, indirectly pointing the finger at General Musharraf, as the has accused the representatives of the establishment. It also renews the old rivalry between the establishment and her party which was founded by her late father as an anti-establishment party.

It will be interesting to see how she avoids the fallout of a mindless action on its own people by General Pervez Musharraf. Only time will tell whether she comes out successful in eliminating terrorism from Pakistan, or is blamed for it, sharing the burden of the establishment, like her previous terms and her father's rule.

For the time-being, the attack on her rally has undone the harm caused to her by striking a deal with an army general. But she is confronted with the toughest challenge of fighting terrorism in Pakistan. It will test her skill as a democrat and politician. People have pinned high hopes on her, but she is between the devil and a deep blue sea ‑ she has to please the US and fight a longstanding enemy, the establishment of Pakistan, at the same time.