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Musharraf: An American Dilemma

Bhuwan Thapaliya - 11/25/2007

Someone once asked me, what are the similarities, between Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and the Dog’s tail. I said, I don’t know. He smiled and said, they are pretty similar, both are very stubborn. He went on saying; I’ve never seen anything as stubborn as the dog’s tail nor have I seen any human as stubborn as Musharraf.

“Why he is stubborn,” I asked. “Maybe, because Musharraf has an American connection,” he replied. I smiled and waved him goodbye. I was busy with my own works and I had completely forgotten Musharraf. But few weeks ago, I woke up and found that the inevitable had happened. Musharraf had declared a state of emergency in Pakistan .

There are dozens of examples of misunderstandings in international relations, ranging from China-America trade disputes to the misreading of allies intentions in the weeks before they attacked Iraq , but none has the muscle to match the declaration of emergency in Pakistan by Musharraf, and the repercussion it has fashioned in the international arena.

For instance, American economist John Kenneth Galbraith once observed that politics "consists of choosing between the unpalatable and the disastrous." And in recent months, it seems Musharraf is choosing both. Moreover, Musharraf’s move has made Pakistan arguably South Asia 's most combustible security hot spot. But the Musharraf regime is making sure no one knows what's going on so that no one can influence change.

But ironically, the move has placed even the Bush administration in a dilemma - inclined to support those protesting against the Army Rule but disinclined to side against an ally in the war on terrorism.

The Bush administration has decided not to decipher the code of their relationship with Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf. But even a dumber can trace the America ’s military logistics problems in Afghanistan . The problem is all about fuel. And going by the reports, without the cooperation of Musharraf’s government, American troops stationed in Afghanistan would likely run out of fuel within a matter of days.

It is worth nothing here that there are around 24,000 U.S troops in Afghanistan and their total fuel consumption per day hovers around 575,000 gallons. That’s mammoth fuel consumption and given the complexities of the problem faced by the U.S troops in Afghanistan , America cannot show its back to Musharraf and the Pakistani Army as about 80 percent of that fuel is coming from refineries in Pakistan .

America cannot afford fuel vulnerability in Afghanistan and neither is it in a mood to shuffle a major political change in Pakistan as the thousands of American lives depend on the continued flow of fuel from Pakistan to Afghanistan .

“If a flow of fuel from Pakistan is completely cut off, American forces could be running on fumes within a fortnight,” according to Robert Bryce, managing editor of Energy Tribune in his article - The Pakistan Fuel Connection.

Meanwhile, it is not only the fuel connection that has kept Musharraf in Power. There are grounds for real worries too.

America is worried about the rise of extreme Islamist movement in Pakistan and is also worried by the Taliban and Al Qaeda groups who are trying to establish Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism. These are real threats and America being American cannot and should not underestimate these threats.

To sum it up. United States simply cannot overthrow Musharraf because he is their man in Pakistan and neither can it afford a complete collapse of Pakistani government rule because the task of stabilizing a collapsed Pakistan is way beyond the means of the United States .

But the truth however is this. Musharraf should end the state of emergency, respect the spirit of democracy and form a consensus with political parties of Pakistan . The sooner the better for him or else not even The Bush administration can save him. And we guess he is doing just that. Unconfirmed reports of him quitting as chief of Pakistan ’s army and taking oath as a civilian president later this week has been floating around in this part of the world since last few days.

If this happens, at least there will be something to cheer about but Pakistan still have a long way to go from the Musharraf’s monopoly.