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Popular Movement Threatens Musharraf's Applecart

Muhammad Shafiq - 11/27/2007

After the return of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his family to Pakistan on November 25, the process of "national reconciliation," initiated by President General Pervez Musharraf was completed. However, his unhindered arrival, despite some 'friendly' baton-charge on his party workers at the Lahore airport, indicates a change of hearts on both sides, especially after his forcible re-exile to Saudi Arabia on September 10. Only 3,000 workers turned out to receive him, but the next few months will determine his future course of politics in the country.

According to PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto, Mr Sharif returned after she had forced President General Pervez Musharraf, through the US, to promulgate the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), paving the way for the homecoming of all exiled leaders. However, some analysts believe his arrival was not the result of the "national reconciliation process", as General Musharraf's PML-Q was not in fovour of his return, especially before polls, because Mr Sharif could cause massive defections in the ruling party, which was formed after a large-scale desertion of PML-N workers through coercion and favors. There are already suggestions of the merger of the Leagues.

Another viewpoint is that the Saudi Royal family forced General Musharraf to allow Mr Sharif to return after he had permitted Ms Bhutto to end her self-exile and take part in politics. The Royals also wanted to make amends after facing severe criticism from all political parties and the general public in Pakistan, for the first time in country's history, when Mr Sharif was deported on September 10. Some analysts believe Ms Bhutto paved the way for his return after convincing the US that the next election would not be credible without his participation. In this way, she wanted to kill two birds with one stone – the breakup of the ruling PML-Q and seek popular support for her party in polls for her democratic credentials.

Another theory behind his homecoming is that the establishment was not willing to give a free hand to Ms Bhutto, especially after General Pervez Musharraf was set to doff his military uniform on November 29. Ms Bhutto and her PPP are considered anti-establishment and anti-state by the establishment. She was allowed to return to Pakistan on the US pressure after it wanted to give a popular touch to its war on terror. However, she lost the favour, if any, of the establishment when she issued statements that she would hand over Dr AQ Khan to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for nuclear proliferation interrogations, reform the ISI, the prime spy agency, and allow US strikes inside Pakistan for targeting Taliban and Al-Qaeda terrorist hideouts. However, Mr Sharif's return is a big blow to General Musharraf who toppled his government in a military coup in 1999. Both have been declaring each other a "security risk" for the last seven years.

Only 3,000 people turned out to receive him, unlike Ms Bhutto who was received by millions of people on her arrival in Karachi on October 18, but Mr Sharif can prove lethal to the ruling party, especially in a fair and free election. He has a large vote bank in all big cities of the Punjab, the biggest province, but he is not as charismatic and crowd puller as Ms Bhutto. The PML-Q will be his main target in the polls, as he assured the Royal family of not boycotting the election to lend credence to it, like Ms Bhutto. Individually, he is not in a position to launch a movement against the government, but if he joins hands with Ms Bhutto, they can really turn the tables on their joint rival, President Musharraf.

As for Bhutto, she is out of the game after her statements on AQ Khan, ISI and US strikes. In fact, the establishment has revised its plan for the future setup after considering her statements. "When she is issuing 'threatening' statements even before coming to power, what will she do after becoming prime minister?" the establishment pondered. There are all indications that the next election would be engineered to perpetuate the rule of President Musharraf and his handpicked PML-Q.

According to the new plan, there is no place for Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif in the future setup of the country. The establishment wants them play the cat and mouse game and base their politics on a personal vendetta against each other, as they did in the 90's. However, both Bhutto and Nawaz can upset the plan, especially when President Musharraf leaves his military office and becomes a civilian president. Many analysts believe Ms Bhutto is waiting in the wings to launch her movement against President Musharraf when he leaves the army, the biggest source of his power for the last eight years. The next few months, especially after polls and lifting of emergency rule, will be crucial for not only Mr Musharraf but also for Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif who can pave the way for undiluted and true democracy.