Home >> United States & Canada >> Elections & Politics  Email  Print President Ron Paul - Could He Really Win? Ronald Holland - 12/7/2007 What if at noon on January 20, 2009 Ron Paul is sworn in as the 44th President of the United States? First, how could Ron Paul actually win the GOP nomination? Second, could he beat Hillary Clinton and win the Presidency? Finally, what could a Ron Paul Administration accomplish with the powerful special interests allied against him and his agenda controlling the leadership of the Republican and Democrat parties?
Could Paul Win the GOP Nomination? - Yes, Ron Paul is an online favorite and he has at least achieved a noteworthy footnote status in American political history with the amazing internet fundraising success by his supporters working on their own outside his campaign or control. Still, his great momentum in the polls moving up from less than 1% to the high single digits realistically can not translate into victory in the front-loaded 2008 primary schedule. There simply is not enough time for the support from internet savvy Ron Paul advocates to broaden across the voting public and mature into enough primary victories for Paul to become the Republican nominee for President. Second, even if this was possible he would have another series of difficult obstacles to overcome in running against Hillary Clinton, the probable Democrat nominee.
Paradigm Shifts In the American Electorate "Almost' Never Happen Over Night! - There is little chance his campaign or supporters alone can convince a majority of the American electorate to vote for Ron Paul and his platform in the time available. The Ron Paul campaign is an educational effort that caught on with a sizable minority of young people and others who don't trust big government, the Neocon foreign policy, conventional politics or the direction our nation is heading. As an educational effort, it has already generated the largest groundswell of popular support since populist Ross Perot, anti-war Eugene McCarthy in 1968 and conservative Barry Goldwater in 1964. But history shows us that the majority of American voters never turn on a dime and it takes years for education and reality to dawn on the public. But all is not lost for the Ron Paul For President campaign and outside events could well propel him into the White House.
How Economic & Foreign Policy Events Outside the Political Process Could Still Give Ron Paul Victory as the GOP Nominee and President of the United States - Think back to your history. If you remember, a majority of Americans did not want to get involved in World War Two but the sneak Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor changed public opinion over night in favor of war. Prior to the War Between the States, the citizens of North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas and Maryland did not support Southern secession but Lincoln's call for troops, war and outright invasion of the already independent Confederate states caused a shift in public opinion in the upper Southern states in favor of secession and the rest is history. The bottom line is perilous outside events can move public opinion and shift voter sentiment far more than any political campaign or candidate especially when most voters assume all politicians are lying anyway.
Consider Any of These Possible Scenarios:
A Bush Strike Against Iran & Resulting Oil Shock To the World Economy - The assumed Iran response would likely push oil to $150 a barrel and gas over $5.00 a gallon and the voting public will wake up to at least the economic disaster of the Bush foreign policy. Hillary, currently the leading Democrat candidate for president will also be blamed as she supports the Bush/Neocon plans against Iran. This action could win Ron Paul the GOP nomination and the general election if it takes place before or early in the primary season.
A Collapse of Nuclear Armed Pakistan & the Musharraf Dictatorship - Musharraf is correctly seen as an American puppet in the Middle East and around the world and this is why he has been forced to maintain control by military means. If the situation does happen and Pakistan descends into chaos it will only benefit the Islamic extremists. Again, if we lose Pakistan, Musharraf and their nuclear weapons as we have previously lost bin Laden, the benefits of a return to the non-intervention foreign echoed by George Washington and Ron Paul could sweep the primaries and general election.
Turkish Invasion of Kurdish Iraq & Control of Oil Reserves - Most voters will agree that America invaded Iraq to protect and control the oil reserves as well as defend the few friendly nations still allied with the United States in the region. Turkey has little oil and is very concerned about their Kurdish problem and the Kurds long term goal is an independent nation-state. Turkey is now threatening to attack the Kurdish guerrillas operating out of Kurd controlled Iraq. If Turkey is willing to invade and accept the diplomatic consequences, they probably will end up driving to and controlling the oil rich city Kerkuk and half the oil reserves of Iraq. Again, this failure of Neocon foreign policy will benefit the candidacy of Ron Paul.
The Federal Reserve Easy Money Credit Crisis - The American public is already suffering from the subprime mortgage and credit debacle, a housing downturn getting more serious by the day and now a recession appears to be on the horizon. Many knowledgeable voters will correctly blame the earlier Federal Reserve easy money policy designed to make billions for the banking and financial services industry as the culprit with average Americans now paying the ultimate price for the Fed actions. Only Ron Paul has called for the abolishment of the both the hated Federal Reserve System and the Internal Revenue Service. I'm betting the coming economic crisis may get worse quickly and if the Ron Paul campaign and others in the freedom movement can publicize and educate the voters about the true manner of the fraud, scam and plague of the Federal Reserve System on the American people, then the campaign will greatly benefit from the looming economic crisis.
A Possible American Dollar Collapse - The falling dollar has been in the news for months but few Americans realize how a weak dollar and the end of it's status as the world's only reserve currency could impact their standard of living and the future of the American economy. Foreign investors, central banks and investment managers are all playing chicken trying to slowly reduce their positions in dollar denominated assets without setting off a worldwide dollar panic. It will happen sooner or later as our aging demographics and current government debt load guarantee the dollar is dying as a stable currency and store of value. The only question is will the dollar death be long and lingering or end in a death rattle of financial panic as everyone tries to exit the dollar door at the same time. Ron Paul has spent is career calling for a return to the gold standard for the dollar and an end to the Federal Reserve creation of paper money. If the dollar downtrend turns into a panic, who else but Ron Paul has the real solution to the problem.
Should Any of the Above Crises Happen Soon, Ron Paul Could Become Our Next President - The odds are they won't happen in time but if any do occur, Ron Paul could win the GOP nomination and be elected President in November 2008.
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