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Huckabee, Obama the New Frontrunners…For Now

Ryan Mauro - 12/17/2007

It is hard to remember a time when the presidential race was this wide open. First, it was a Giuliani-McCain race, then a Giuliani-Romney race, with Clinton as the frontrunner by a long-shot. Then Fred Thompson entered the mix, and quickly deflated. Enter Mike Huckabee, arguably less conservative than Thompson but a far better messenger of a conservative message. In today’s 30-second sound byte world, the messenger matters more than the credibility of the message. The race, as a result, has done a complete turnaround with two new frontrunners who for so long lagged behind in national polls: Senator Barack Obama and Governor Mike Huckabee.

Senator Barack Obama lags behind in national polls, but as John Kerry can attest to, these polls are worthless after the initial caucuses and primaries. It looks like Obama will win Iowa, which will provide a boost in poll numbers larger than most pundits expect. The aura of the “Clinton Machine” and Obama as the likeable underdog will provide him with incredible momentum as he proves that he is capable of winning. Obama will almost certainly then win New Hampshire, and barring some major scandal, win Nevada and South Carolina. Clinton and Giuliani’s fates are tied in this regard, as both have to hope that the momentum gained by several early victories will not translate into victory on Super Tuesday. Unfortunately for them, this seems unlikely based upon past election cycles and the fact it is questionable whether any amount of fundraising or lead in the national polls can withstand such a blow.

Unlike Huckabee, Obama faces no questions from his party’s base about his ideological credentials. In fact, Clinton is the one with problems with the base. As Obama rises in the polls, she must confront him head on. She is in a lose-lose situation with this, as well. Obama is far more well-liked, and attacking him too harshly will further cement the image of Obama as the politician of hope and change, and Clinton will cement her image as being ruthless and unlikable. The only other areas she can strike him on are electability (an argument she will not win) or experience, which Americans care less and less about. Hillary has one more gamble that may work: Senator John Edwards. If Edwards can win Iowa, then even if she comes in third, the anti-Hillary vote will be split as Edwards gains tremendous momentum as he will now be the true underdog. Obama will gain if he comes in second as well, but he will not have solidified the anti-Hillary vote, causing a split that may hand Hillary Clinton some early victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina. The performance of Edwards (who will not get the nomination) will decide whether Obama or Clinton wins the party nomination.

These same dynamics are at play with the rise of Mike Huckabee. If he wins Iowa decisively, he will gain momentum and deflate the Romney balloon. The key determining factor is how much a Huckabee victory in Iowa will bring down Romney’s numbers in New Hampshire (and who loses support to Huckabee in the aftermath of Iowa). This race will be decided in New Hampshire. If Huckabee somehow wins, he’ll have the same dynamics as Obama, as he’ll have tremendous momentum on his side. Even today, without having any votes take place, Huckabee is rising rapidly due to his likeable underdog status. A Rasmussen poll shows that Giuliani is now in third in Florida, with Romney and Huckabee battling for top spot. This may be the trigger that forces Giuliani to take on Huckabee. The governor has benefited from the fact that Giuliani and McCain need him to do well, but if it looks like he’ll wrap up all the early states, then they’ll need to take him down a notch or two. Romney faces a similar problem as Hillary Clinton, in that he can’t attack Huckabee too harshly because he is simply too well-liked. He’ll have to count on newspaper articles and the blogosphere to really question his conservative credentials and inevitably, his character. These next few weeks will be an entirely new race for Huckabee. Expect his competitors to have vicious game plans to take him out immediately after Iowa.

Fred Thompson, now in the second tier, does have a small opportunity to regain his place as the conservative underdog. If he can win third place in Iowa, and Huckabee doesn’t win New Hampshire, it’s possible that the firing upon Huckabee’s conservative credentials will allow Thompson to rise again in South Carolina. The chances are against this, though, as the primaries are so close to each other that there will be little time for such an offensive to make an impact. Thompson has to hope that the media destroys Huckabee just as quickly as they helped birth him as the new frontrunner.

Today, Huckabee and Obama are the new frontrunners. The pundits were wrong about the shape of this race. However, as these two are anointed as frontrunners as the dynamics in their favor become more obvious, remember tomorrow is a new day and the pundits, again, may be wrong.