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The Top Inventions Of 2008

Michael Hart - 1/3/2008

What will be the top inventions in 2008?

1. Inexpensive Terabytes and USB 3.0

The advent of USB 3.0 will combine with inexpensive terabyte drives to create systems in which no one needs to ever delete anything AND backups will become so feasible that someone should write something like "Backups For Dummies" or "Backups For Idiots."

The result will be far fewer stories of accidentally lost files for the future than in the past, even though there will be ever so many more file to possibly lose. Of course, there still be will the one person here and there who refuses to buy just one new drive a year, moving the others into backup positions, even though terabytes will be heading down closer $100 in some form by the end of 2008.

This will turn out to change the fundamentals of computing for that mystical average user we keep talking about: always enough space -- never a need to delete anything--plenty of room for backups.



2. Virtual Reference Service

More and more libraries will decide not to limit their emails, chat and instant messages to their local patrons, any more than they had been limiting those who call in by phone.

I'm sure there is at least one library out there with caller ID who demands some kind of proof of local residence before they answer an easy reference question, but I think that is going to decline along with all the other forms of local and regional prejudices.

It is possible I could be totally, 180 degrees wrong on this one as I consider the possibilities of "anti-globalism."

My first thoughts on this are that there are no reasons there could not be some kind of global reference system in which questions will be automatically forwarded to those who have indicated they will be available for such questions at certain hours.

I have heard both wonder stories and horror stories about this.

Some people just rave about being able to find someone to answer an electronic question at 4 AM their time and in the middle of the day for whomever is answering the question.

Others protest in dismay and claim they could not possibly answer a single extra question and that they take measures to prevent people from asking questions.

As I said, it could go either way.

Some librarians think virtual reference is the next big thing.

Others think questions from outside their tax bases should get RAID sprayed on them to kill off all but those who belong there.

Will virtual reference find better ways to connect global patrons -- or will virtual reference redraw the old battle lines between these and those, between US and THEM, between "haves" and "have nots?"

You all know which side _I_ am on in this issue, so please email me if you are willing to try to answer even just one question a month.

The world could be a much better place for it.



3. Virtual Libraries [Taken One At A Time]

By the end of 2008 the Project Gutenberg Library will be as large -- or larger--than the average United States Public Library.

30,000+ volumes originating from Project Gutenberg.

[This is not taking into account the 75,000+ donated via eLibraries around the world.]

Claims of over a million eBooks from some sources notwithstanding -- Project Gutenberg's library stands alone in that the volumes should each have been proofread by at least two human beings, along with a wide variety of software proofreading programs, and in the fact the eBooks take only one file per volume and are very small files.

As time goes one, more and more virtual libraries of this size will become available in these small files that allow an entire library, 30,000 books of a million characters each, to be worn on keychains, necklaces, bracelets, etc.

These small text files also work very will with compression program varieties such as .zip files, that allow 5 books to be stored in an alternate .zip file in the space 2 books took previously.

5 books in 2 megabytes.

5,000 books in 2 gigabytes.

30,000 books in 12 gigabytes.

That's all the words in the books of an average US Public Library.

2008 will see 12 gigabyte USB flash drives for under $100.

$100 to carry every word in 30,000 books. . . .

In less space and weight than your average wristwatch.

That's future I can look forward to.

*

Before Gutenberg the average person owned zero books.

Before Project Gutenberg the average person owned zero libraries.




4. Virtual Libraries [Taken As A Whole]


Certain people keep lists of the world's largest libraries.

I recently received just such a list from a book to be published in 2008 that contains only libraries with 7 million books or more.

A few dozen libraries are on that list.

But something is going to change how the list is determined because in the very near future, perhaps even by the end of 2008, there are going to be 7 million eBooks in the world . . . and someone somewhere is going to download all of them.

I'm not talking about the CIA, FBI, KGB, MI5 or MI6 or their newer, more whatever counterparts, I'm talking about some much more normal kind of person who has finally realized that "personal computer" is a gateway to "personal library."


"Personal Computers" as "Personal Libraries"


If the millions of books claimed by Googles, Million Book Projects, Open Content Alliances, and whatever all over the world were copied into a single computer, that collection just might make it to those 7 million volumes needed to break into the largest libraries list.

By the end of 2008 that will be quite a bit more likely to be true.

Obviously it is going to be possible very soon, no matter what.


Let's go for 7.5 million books, just to make sure we make the list.


Remember our 30,000 volume public library mentioned above?


Still presuming one million character per volume:


1,000 volumes could be stored in .txt format in 1 gigabyte.

2,500 volumes could be stored in .zip format in 1 gigabyte.

30,000 volumes could be stored in .zip format in 12 gigabytes.

32,500 volumes could be stored in .zip format in 13 gigabytes.

75,000 volumes could be stored in .zip format in 26 gigabytes.

750,000 volumes could be stored in .zip format in 260 gigabytes.

7.5 million volumes could be stored in .zip format in 2.6 terabytes.


The average computer today sells for under $500.

It comes with about 120 gigabytes of hard drive.

Adding in five drives at half a terabyte each totals under $500.


There is your potential world class library for under $1,000!


Yes, there are problems.


First is the unwillingness of people such as Google to make it easy to download their books in .txt format.

I understand this is changing, but changing a million books takes a bit of time, and I worry that Google is more concerned with SAYING THEY HAVE MILLIONS OF BOOKS than actually making them available as actual text files the likes of which you are reading right now.

This is not just a concern with Google, I have the same concern via the work of The Million Book Project, The Open Content Alliance and all of the rest who speak in terms of millions of online books from the perspective of "instant gratification."

What I mean here is, of course, that one can, and THEY do, toss the books into a scanning machine and claim the output is an eBook.

As the inventor of eBooks it is my right to say these are NOT.

However, they /ARE/ 98% readable, but too many pages are missing or out of focus to ever make a .txt file out of them.

Not to mention that these "NOT eBooks" are so much larger files the computer required to hold 7.5 million of them would NOT be $1,000!



5. "The Information Age? For Whom?!?" "A New Digital Divide?"

This brings us back to the everlasting question about this computer revolution we are living in right now. . ."For Whom?"

Given that at least half the world is now electronically connected, "The Digital Divide" in terms of potential access is becoming moot, and you have to take that into account when you hear 3 billion of a new variety of cell phones have gone into operation just recently.

However, there are still many ways to keep "THEM" out of the system and to preserve most of the goodies for "US."

One way to use huge files that take 10 times the time and money.

Another way is to make keep extending copyrights so "THEY" couldn't possibly pay "US" for access to the system.

Another way to keep the literacy rates low so "THEY" can't read the information even if "The Information Age" brings it to their door -- free of charge.

Another way is simply to ignore the information requests of persons whom we can determine are NOT one of "US."

This is one of the major Information Science issues of 2008.