Home >> United States & Canada >> Elections & Politics  Email  Print New Candidate Ratings Before New Hampshire Vote: Huckabee and Obama Remain Favorites Ryan Mauro - 1/8/2008 In my last report, I argued that Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama were the frontrunners for their party’s nominations. Yesterday’s results in Iowa solidify their positions for the moment among the media and pundits. With New Hampshire coming up on January 6th, it is important to note this could change. The few polls that have results from the day after the Iowa caucuses puts Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as tied or have Clinton winning by a few points, and most seem to indicate McCain is leading Romney in New Hampshire. By the time our next report is published after New Hampshire votes, there will be major fluctuations in the following rankings. For now, here are the candidate ratings for the weekend of January 5-6, 2007:
The Democrats
1) Senator Barack Obama. His larger-than-expected Iowa victory is causing the media to eat up the idea of the under-dog taking down the juggernaut Clinton machine. As many have commented, the only attack Clinton has available to her is experience, which will backfire in an election primarily motivated by a desire for change.
Obama is likely to win in New Hampshire. He is extremely close to Clinton in the polls there, and the influx of independents that will come to his side (as well as the boost from Iowa) will almost definitely put him over the top. It is doubtful that the intense media scrutiny he is bound to receive will bring him down between now and Tuesday. It is also doubtful that the media scrutiny, which may bring him down in national polls, will torpedo Obama in South Carolina, where roughly 40% of the Democratic voting base is African-American. Remember, Iowa’s voting population in the caucus was almost entirely white, and Obama won by a stunning margin.
Obama is also greatly assisted by the removal of Senators Dodd and Biden as candidates. Originally, many pundits expected Edwards to win Iowa as he was the second-choice of most second-tier candidates who wouldn’t reach the 15% threshold. Remarkably, Bill Richardson encouraged his supporters to vote for Obama. Richardson is close to the Clintons and has defended her at the debates, leading many to suspect he was seeking Clinton’s Vice Presidential spot. Perhaps Richardson is betting now that Obama will win the nomination.
Edwards’ failure to win helps Obama as well, because the anti-Clinton vote will soon begin rallying into Obama’s camp. Of course, if Edwards had withdrawn, this would greatly assist Obama, but look for huge amounts of Edwards supporters to flock to Obama after each victory.
As things stand now, Obama will win New Hampshire, and gain momentum that seriously diminishes Clinton’s chances at winning.
2) Senator Hillary Clinton. She still is leading by a wide margin nationally, and so can hope that she’ll still win on Super Tuesday. She finds herself in the same position as Giuliani, only with better prospects. Her main problem is Obama’s ability to win independents and the fact that he’s better at bringing new voters in. He’s also been more
successful than Edwards at winning over the supporters of the failed second-tier candidates, which hurts Clinton by uniting the vote against her. I personally expected supporters of Joe Biden and Chris Dodd to support Clinton, thinking the draw towards them was experience, which Clinton has more of. Apparently, I was wrong, and the coalescing of the second-tiers around Obama may be the death-knell of the Clinton campaign.
Clinton has to hope that Edwards targets Obama and stays in the race as long as possible in order to split the vote against her. She also has to hope that the media scrutiny upon Obama (although they are currently in a state of awe of him) factors in by Super Tuesday, or the momentum of his numerous victories will put him over the top.
3) Senator John Edwards. He can claim credit for contributing to the decline of the Clinton campaign, although this comes in an unflattering way. It seems as though people are saying, Wow, even Edwards beat Clinton, which shames them both. Edwards support will continue to slide. He has to hope for a major gaffe on Obama’s part before South Carolina, which will be Edwards’ last stand. This is unlikely, and the longer Edwards stays in the more he helps Clinton. The only way he may hurt Clinton is by adding his passionate, forceful voice to Obama’s in challenging Clinton at the debates. Edwards has to make a choice whether to stay in to save face, or whether to support Obama by dropping out. Given that choice, I expect him to stay in until South Carolina.
4) Former Governor Bill Richardson. He’s staying in, again mostly for pride. His campaign is unlikely to go anywhere unless Edwards drops out and Obama falters significantly due to attacks on his experience, which would allow Richardson to push his resume. However, this is an election about change and personality, and it seems unlikely that Obama can falter so much as to allow Richardson an opening. Richardson simply doesn’t have the appeal necessary to replace Obama, and may have aligned himself too closely with Clinton to be seen as a genuine alternative.
Richardson may rise in the polls after Edwards drops out, allowing his position on Iraq which advocates an immediate, complete withdrawal with no residual forces left behind to elevate him. At the time this may happen, Obama and Clinton will have to fine-tune their messages for the general election, causing them to moderate their position and allowing Richardson to get the far-left base on Iraq. It is unlikely that this rise in the polls, under these specific circumstances, will dramatically alter the race.
5) Congressman Dennis Kucinich.
6) Former Senator Mike Gravel.
Republicans
1) Former Governor Mike Huckabee. He’s the frontrunner right now, although it must be remembered that his victory in Iowa comes shortly after the height of the “Huckaboom” so you may not see a big increase as a result of his victory. He may have hit his ceiling. If McCain wins New Hampshire, it seems probable that he’ll take the first place spot due to his national security experience, electability, and the perception that Huckabee is still a long shot as he can’t win over other voter segments (remember, the perception of reality is more important than reality).
Huckabee’s best hope in New Hampshire is for third place, although coming in fourth won’t be fatal, either. It will heighten questions about whether he can win in areas of the country not as conservative, but he’s so likeable that voters may look past this. Huckabee should focus on Michigan, where some polls have had him leading (although McCain is likely to win this state if he takes New Hampshire), and more importantly, South Carolina, which is the state that will decide whether Huckabee has a chance on Super Tuesday.
2) Senator John McCain. He’s winning the national polls right now, and will become the new underdog the media champions if he wins New Hampshire. Normally, the borders would destroy McCain’s chances at winning but the lack of a real conservative challenger should he win New Hampshire will force border hawks to settle. As more and more conservatives question Huckabee’s credibility as a conservative, his edge over McCain will drop. They key problem for McCain will be the debates and appearing inspiring, as he seems even more ready to fall asleep than Thompson does at the debates (when not discussing the surge). Another key asset McCain has is electability, but this argument will lose strength if Obama seems destined to catch the nomination because the fear of a Republican loss is driven primarily by Hillary Clinton. The ability of Obama to debate and speak is a sharp contrast to McCain as well, which may cause Republicans to favor someone with more “fire in the belly” like Giuliani or Huckabee.
That all said, McCain is the most likely frontrunner next week.
3) Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani. He has to hope that the conservative vote against him is fractured enough to allow him to win in Florida and Super Tuesday. It seems possible, though, that this race will come down to a McCain-Giuliani battle after South Carolina, which is extremely hard to predict. On the one hand, Giuliani polls the best in Democratic strongholds, and comes across as a better fighter than McCain. On the other, McCain has more national security experience, is more conservative on domestic issues and fares the best in national polls. Both have significant problems with the base, and it can be argued over who has the bigger problem. McCain has a major problem with the libertarian wing (due to Campaign Finance Reform) and border hawks, whereas Giuliani has a bigger problem with social conservatives. Both are fiscal conservatives and tough on national security, which is why they are likely to overtake Huckabee. It is questionable whether voters will think this far into the electability issue as I have, though.
The most likely scenario on Super Tuesday at this point is a three-way race between either Huckabee or Thompson; McCain and Giuliani. In such a contest, Giuliani will win if his numbers hold in the big states (we’ll know by Florida whether they will). The worst possible outcome for Giuliani is for one of the other candidates to roll up Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina in a decisive enough fashion as to make it a two-man race.
4) Former Governor Mitt Romney. He has to win New Hampshire. Simple as that. If that doesn’t happen, he can continue in the race due to his checkbook, but it will be futile. He’ll probably stay in until Michigan or maybe South Carolina, but if he stays in longer than that after losing all those primaries, he’ll simply look like a fool. As Iowa has shown, his bank account will not allow him to win. His only hope is that he can win the border hawk mantle when/if Fred Thompson withdraws and people look at Huckabee, McCain and Giuliani with more scrutiny. There is some chance of this occurring, but it remains doubtful because of Giuliani’s tough rhetoric on the borders and Thompson’s likely endorsement of McCain should he withdraw.
5) Former Senator Fred Thompson. He may actually rise to fourth place after New Hampshire. There is a realistic possibility that he’ll win the hearts again of the conservatives, starting with the border hawks and social conservatives. This requires an implosion of Huckabee, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility, and the removal of Mitt Romney. Thompson’s best friend is the media at this point. As Huckabee and McCain become frontrunners, he has to hope the media destroys their conservative credentials and thus, their candidacies as the conservative vote rallies around Thompson. This can only occur if he speaks with some major “fire in the belly” rhetoric that shows he wants it. We will know if he is capable of this at the debates this weekend. South Carolina, when it comes, will make or break Thompson.
6) Congressman Ron Paul. Look for a major showing in New Hampshire as he steals independents from McCain. If Clinton had won Iowa (and thus, the nomination) in Iowa, Democratic and independent voters likely would have flooded the voting booths for Ron Paul and a lesser degree, John McCain. Obama’s victory significantly hurts McCain and Ron Paul. However, given the libertarian-friendly territory of New Hampshire and intense loyalty Paul’s supporters have, he may very well come in third place. If Clinton had won, I would have bet on such a showing. Will this translate into other areas? No. Ron Paul’s candidacy, for all intents and purposes, ends at New Hampshire. Libertarian-leaning voters though can have their chins up in the air on the way out, regardless of this fact, as their efforts may have truly triggered a libertarian-leaning revolution that will grow and fully materialize one day in the future.
Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee will leave this race having had the most affect on future primary political seasons.
7) Former Congressman Duncan Hunter. He’d normally win over the border hawks easily, but he simply doesn’t have the name recognition and at this point, these voters want someone who can win. Ryan Mauro is a geopolitical analyst. He began working for Tactical Defense Concepts (www.tdconcepts.com), a maritime-associated security company in 2002. In 2003, Mr. Mauro joined the Northeast Intelligence Network (www.homelandsecurityus.com), which specializes in tracking and assessing terrorist threats. He has appeared on over 20 radio shows and had articles published in over a dozen publications. His book "Death to America: The Unreported Battle of Iraq" is scheduled to be published in the coming months. In addition to writing for the Global Politician, he publishes his own web site called World Threats. He may be reached at tdcanalyst@aol.com
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