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Pakistan’s Return To Democracy

M. H. Koya, Ph.D. - 1/18/2008

With the growing internal dissatisfaction and what seems to be a heavy tilting towards the Al Qaida type of Islam, Pakistan is thirsting for a return to democracy. It is a wrong call. They will have to be clear in their head whether to have democracy or the Islamized Pakistan.

Throughout its history, Pakistan has been hitting between pillar and post as far as democracy is concerned and has had more military rule than democratic government.

It seems as if Pakistan is either not ready or not sure of democracy. During late dictator Gen. Zia Ul Haq’s regime, Pakistanis were rallying behind him for Islamization in Pakistan. And Zia did bring in sweeping changes to Pakistan’s Constitution to accommodate the idea but died a tragic death in the infamous plane crash before he could see its full implementation.

The democratic governments that followed were allegedly plagued with corruption with Muslim cleric, as usual, pulling all kinds of strings adding to Pakistan’s instability.

While the more moderate and educated crowd seem to have been in favor of a democratic government, the Muslim cleric - Mullahs- have been pushing for Islamic government which in large part meant the Saudi Arabia’s Wahabi type of Government based on Sharia Law perceived, presented and practiced as a very rigid Islamic rule.

Gen. Pervez Musharraf justified his military take over on the grounds that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had instructed army officials to prevent his re-entry into Pakistan when he flew back from an out-of country mission. Officials were, allegedly, instructed to keep him in the air until his aircraft ran out of fuel and met with a crash. Although the story or the truth of it has not been accepted with full credence, Gen. Musharraf’s allegations that there was widespread corruption seem to have found sound support. On taking over power Gen, Musharraf appealed to Pakistanis living abroad to return large sums of loans that were obtained for start up businesses but were taken out of country instead. There were encouraging reports as many Pakistanis did return the money back to Pakistan. This was a most credible mission of Gen. Musharraf. But he was still under scrutiny as people agitated for democracy and Islamic form of government being not sure which one did they want.

In the middle of these struggles, the 911 attack changed the political scenes and perpetuated the need for a military Pakistan as a large number of Pakistani organizations were listed as terrorist organizations and Pakistan presented an important strategic position for US invasion into Afghanistan the strong hold of Al Qaida the prime suspects of 911.

Pakistan’s internal agitation for democracy, demands of 911 aftermaths and the escalating conflict with the neighboring India placed a mounting pressure on Gen. Musharraf. It was not the time for a change from military to democracy. Given Pakistan’s history, a freshly elected or appointed civilian government could not have controlled Pakistan in such a chaotic, desperate and volatile condition to provided US a formidable partnership for the war on terror. Little wonder the US which is so bent on installing democracy in the Muslim countries did not push for an immediate return to democratic rule in Pakistan.

With fierce military campaign against Al Qaida in Afghan, it is understandable that many suspects found escape routes into Pakistan.

In the wake of 911 and the crack down on terrorists, Indian and Pakistan moved closer on more friendly terms with exchange visits between Musharraf and Baj Pai which will go as credit to Musharraf.

As the dusts are settling down and the US is preparing for 2008 elections, end of a military government in Pakistan may seem a very good proposition and Gen. Musharraf may be thinking of returning the country back to civilian government. He faces a great risk as well. Last month’s Red Mosque siege will be a main political noose round his neck and unless Gen. Musharraf seeks a political asylum in another country, any new civilian government will be quick to close up upon him and throw him behind bars.

He has a lot at steak and he needs to play his cards well but for sure he cannot remain in power for ever. He has to retire and make provisions for his own safety and a safe return to democracy.

One thing is clear no civilian government in Pakistan can control the Mullah-led agitations and ensure a peaceful and stable government. Past evidence is too strong to suggest otherwise. Perhaps there is a recycling in store for Pakistan -from pillar to post-between military and civilian rule.

Success of any Pakistani leader, including, Gen. Musharraf, is largely contingent upon how he or she fares with the Blasphemy Law and discrimination against Ahmadi Muslims as part of the democratic Pakistan.