| News | |
About Us | |
GP Editors | |
Get Published | |
Newsletter | |
Contact Us |
Home >> United States & Canada >> Elections & Politics McCain Reinforces Role As Frontrunner; Still Can't Win The Conservative Vote Ryan Mauro - 1/22/2008 The Republican race may not be as anti-climactic as some anticipated. The majority of pundits on TV predicted a Huckabee victory due to the large evangelical base, but McCain managed to come through. The winner of the South Carolina primary for the past few decades has always become the Republican nominee. With momentum on his side, and polls putting him ahead of Giuliani on the east and west coasts, it seems very likely that McCain will be the Republican nominee. The amazing dynamic at play is that should be become the Republican nominee, it will not be with the blessing of conservatives. In every contest he won so far, McCain has won voters who described themselves as liberal, moderate, or were Independent, but lost conservatives to Romney and Huckabee. While it was originally thought the conservative field being splintered would boost Giuliani, it seems McCain is the one benefiting the most. The Republicans1) Senator John McCain: He is on a roll, and seems to have reached the precious middle-ground between liberal Republicans and conservative Republicans. Neither one love him, but they are likely to settle on him compared to the rest of the contenders. McCain is in such a good position that he could even lose Florida to Giuliani or another candidate, and still win if his numbers remain solid in the states that Giuliani is contesting. McCain also has an advantage going into Florida, and that’s the elderly. While McCain’s age will hurt him in the general election, in a race as tight as this, the elderly Republicans who believe that with age comes wisdom may put him above the top. The key problem for McCain in Florida and Super Tuesday is that so far he’s held a lock on the moderate and liberal Republican base, handing him victory due to the conservatives dividing up their vote. As the number of conservative candidates dwindles, McCain will be hurt. Florida will be the first time that his own base will be splintered, and it’ll be interesting to see how he performs. McCain has two dream scenarios he should work for: Either a race primarily between himself and Giuliani, where he can pose as the conservative alternative (who is also more electable), or a race between himself and two or more conservatives, allowing him to monopolize on the moderate vote. Should the second scenario come to pass, McCain will become the New Giuliani, taking the front-runner slot that Giuliani had when the race began, where his moderate credentials was an asset, not a disadvantage. 2) Former Governor Mitt Romney: He is rich in delegates and rich financially. He is the only conservative that can compete on Super Tuesday, and may be the only conservative in the race by then. Romney has to hope for Huckabee to continue to falter, and for Fred Thompson to drop out, making him the only viable conservative. The key problem for Romney is that it is questionable whether Huckabee’s evangelical supporters will go to him. To solve this, Romney should emphasize his strong family values, as he’s only had one wife. Is it an indirect cheap shot to Giuliani and McCain? Sure, but it’ll work. If Romney can regain the confidence of voters, and become the conservative alternative to Giuliani and McCain, he has a realistic shot at winning by forcing them to split up their constituency. If it comes down to Romney vs. Giuliani or Romney vs. McCain, then the deciding issue is whether conservatives would rather take a chance on losing but get the candidate closest to their specifications, or go with the more likely general election winner. Given that conservatives aren’t fanatical about Romney, I wouldn’t expect their vote to coalesce around Romney. I say McCain wins such a scenario. 3) Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani: He actually can still win this contest, but he must win Florida. Most polls show him up by one or two points, but the media coverage of such a comeback will help him on Super Tuesday. Had Huckabee or Thompson won South Carolina, Giuliani would be the front-runner, but with McCain’s victory, Giuliani will see his support erode further. Giuliani simply has to hope that his lead can hold, and that McCain will have won enough conservative support as to help splinter the right-wing voting bloc. In short, Giuliani has to hope that McCain has become another conservative challenger to him, rather than the moderate challenger to Romney. 4) Former Governor Mike Huckabee: It’s really difficult to see how he can win this. It’s a close race in Florida, so he may be able to pull a squeaker there. This is extremely unlikely though because Florida has fewer evangelicals than South Carolina, where he still lost. The only argument for Huckabee’s continued presence is that he only lost South Carolina because of Fred Thompson’s candidacy, which will probably not be in existence by the time Florida rolls around. 5) Former Senator Fred Thompson: He put it all into South Carolina, and came in third. It’s over. The only role he can play now is to pull votes away from Romney and Huckabee, thereby helping his friend, John McCain. 6) Congressman Ron Paul: Most people expected his strongest showing to be in New Hampshire, where he didn’t exceed pre-election day polls. Then, it was Michigan where both Democrats and Independents could vote for him. Also a disappointment. Now, it’s Nevada where he came in second. At this point, any hope for some shocking result (such as when Ron Paul had the highest single day of fundraising) seems unlikely. Paul’s candidacy is over, but the libertarian movement will live on.
|
Email
Print| Ryan Mauro is a geopolitical analyst. He began working for Tactical Defense Concepts (www.tdconcepts.com), a maritime-associated security company in 2002. In 2003, Mr. Mauro joined the Northeast Intelligence Network (www.homelandsecurityus.com), which specializes in tracking and assessing terrorist threats. He has appeared on over 20 radio shows and had articles published in over a dozen publications. His book "Death to America: The Unreported Battle of Iraq" is scheduled to be published in the coming months. In addition to writing for the Global Politician, he publishes his own web site called World Threats. He may be reached at tdcanalyst@aol.com tdcanalyst@optonline.net |