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Analysis of Pakistani Elections

Iqbal Latif - 2/20/2008

Pakistan observed its crucial polls in a fairly peaceful manner yesterday in total contradiction to all the media hype and speculation on violence and 'mass rigging.' President Musharraf has been true to his word. Although international media treats him like a dog, there is good reason why major world leaders, Bush, Sarkozy, Brown, respect and endorse the Pakistani President’s power. For a “dictatorial tyrant,” as accused by many a world press, Musharraf has acted every bit the salt he is worth - fairly and in line with his promises to ensure free and fair elections. He is fully aware of his responsibilities: as the guardian of the nation from extremist elements, as a proactive ally towards the “war on terror,” and as the leader of a nuclear Pakistan.

Pragmatism is what can only responsibly make a nation like Pakistan tread a very fine line between being declared a responsible state or part of the axis of evil. It has been pragmatism and policy of ‘Pakistan first’ that a nuclear Pakistan has not been made an ingredient of axis of evil, like neighbouring Iran, who has made fiery rhetorics on the annihilation of Israel. These statements are very affordable for 'oil rich mullah led' Iran, however, for a country like Pakistan which is a declared nuclear state, any ‘irresponsible statement’ can be like signing off a death warrant. The President realizes this well, as does his Army, and with the emerging results of the election, so do the people of Pakistan. Nuclear assets are not a luxury; it is a responsibility and has to be tackled with extreme care.

The ‘threats of annihilation of other sovereign nations’ can only bring the wrath of the entire world. Oil-rich Iran can afford it, export oriented, inward dollar remittances-dependent Pakistan cannot afford such bragging. Senator Lieberman, during his last visit to Pakistan, had long meetings with Pakistani army chief, General Parvez Kiani, and the director general of the Strategic Planning Division, Lieutenant General (retired) Khalid Ahmad Kidwai. The SPD gave a detailed briefing to Lieberman. Lieberman endowed SPD's professional capability in overseeing the command and control system for the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal with flattering remarks. "I am deeply impressed by the professionalism of the team to secure the nuclear assets of Pakistan," he said. This is a clear reflection of the President’s realistic political alliance which has helped Pakistan avoid the fate of an Iraq or an Afghanistan.

Large number of people exercised their right countrywide yesterday. Generally, voting was concluded in a peaceful manner in most of the constituencies. Counting began at the end of polling and official results would be announced later.

The reaction of capital markets is a sure-fire sign of how the country has responded to the crucial elections. The President’s unimpeachability, the full support of the Army to its President, and then the emergence of a more secular PPP offered much positive ingredients that buoyed the stock market which rose by nearly 400 points. In a very transparent and clean election PPP and PML (N) are leading in Sind and Punjab respectively. PML (Q) is trailing. PML (Q), the party that supports Musharraf, is traditionally known as having stronghold in hinterlands of Punjab their results come a little later so it is early but still the trend in the urban areas are very clear, i.e., people have supported Nawaz and BB over entrenched leadership. However, a nail has been driven in the heartland of the 'mullahs.' ANP, a totally secular party in NWFP, has regained its popularity along with mainstream PPP and PML (N). Good omen for a violence-struck province and a mortal blow to the process of Talebinisation.

Initial trends are emerging that are indicative of Nawaz as the frontrunner in Punjab and PPP in Sind, PML (Q) will beg 40-50; it is most probable that Pakistan may have a fragmented mandate, a coalition between PPP and Nawaz will seal the fate of Mush; a coalition between weaker parties and PPP may help Musharraf.

The emerging election results are a clear indication of impenetrability of Islamic fundamentalists in the society. The secular parties of the country managed to secure majority votes with MMA (a major religious party) receiving negligible response from the voters.

PPP has emerged as the largest single party, followed by PML (N) as the second largest. Contrary to the general perception, a surface deep analysis reveals that PML(Q) and allies plus independents, who support the presidency has secured third position on National Assembly seat chart – just short of PPP. This indeed is a very good and clear sign. Though PPP and PML (N) are in opposition, their agendas are very different. PPP wholeheartedly agrees with war on terror whereas PML (N) is more ambivalent; PPP is very secular whereas PML (N) is centre-right. PPP leader needs a bill of clean past from the President. Furthermore, PPP’s home province of Sind requires a comfortable working relationship with the allies of Musharraf. 70% of tax revenue is generated by urban Sind, controlled totally by Mush allies, so PPP can have a working relationship with them.

Furthermore, PPP has an inherent problem. As the largest party they want to rule, they have been in opposition far too long; within the party Zardari has a claim, so has Amin Faheem, but this rupture can open new permutations; this is how parliamentary democracy works.

And more importantly, with all these factors and the Senate firmly in the hands of the President for the next three years as only 50 members come up for renewal this time one cannot see Nawaz confrontationist policies as workable. He lacks the pragmatism and foresightedness of Musharraf and matters of national security are too sensitive for him to handle. As President Musharraf emerges unimpeachable, a realization that will soon come within the international media is that with a working parliamentary majority made up of liberals, secularism will emerge.

With transparent, non-violent, unlike Kenya kind of scenario and total cleaning of the Augean stables of Talibans from the hinterland of NWFP, it will dawn on the world that the ‘dictator’ has not been that much a ‘dictator,’ these elections are being termed as one of the freest and one of the cleanest.

The whole uncertainty about nuclear assets of Pakistan is now over. As a democratic state, it can now live with the new set where nuclear assets are controlled by NDA and NSC which are represented by politicians and strategic wings. These were very contentious issues and Nawaz wanted this to be out. PPP will accept a middle ground. The President has lot of bones to deliver to a lot of power hungry independents; they will get nothing out of a confrontation that Nawaz promises; the government will be formed very soon and new permutations will emerge; bastardization allowed within parliamentary democracy will have its own dynamics.