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Taiwan Poll and China: New Future?

Abdul Ruff - 4/4/2008

The opposition Nationalist Party Kuomintang (KMT) candidate and the former Taipei mayor Ma Ying-jeou Ma cruised to victory in the presidential election, promising to expand economic ties with China while protecting the island from being swallowed up politically by its giant communist neighbor. Ma won in a landslide on 22 March against an opponent who had tried to use recent bloody protests in Tibet to scare people into not voting for Ma. He faced Frank Hsieh of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in the race to succeed Chen Shui-bian. Both candidates advocated closer economic ties with China , but differed over the pace and degree of change.


Taiwan's newly-elected president -He polled 58.45%, with Hsieh getting 41.55%, on a turnout of 76%- has pledged to establish better economic and political ties with China . Ma Ying-jeou said he would like to work towards a peace treaty with Beijing , but would only do so if China removed missiles pointed at Taiwan . Official results gave Ma an advantage of nearly 17 percentage points over Hsieh. Over 17 million people were eligible to vote and turnout figures are considered to be high. Hsieh has accepted his party's independence platform, but without the special vehemence of Chen, whose support for separatist policies constantly incensed China and caused grave concern in the United States , Taiwan 's most important foreign partner.


Ruling DDP president Chen Shui-bian who had won presidential elections in 2000 March, ending the Nationalist (Kuomintang) Party's 50-year monopoly of power, has lost popularity ever since he won second tern with slender majority. The issue of re-union with China has caused loss of his image. He said he won't call for a referendum on independence, nor abolish Taipei 's official blueprint for an eventual reunion with mainland China . China responded by accusing him of insincerity, and by saying he had evaded the key question of whether he considered Taiwan part of China . There have been a lot protest marches in recent years to oust Chen. The organizers of the latest campaign - "A Million Voices Against Corruption - Chen Must Go" - have been trying to keep their distance from the mainstream political parties.


Ma now has a commanding mandate, as the Kuomintang controls two-thirds of the seats in parliament having won a sweeping victory in polls in January. Ma, 57 and educated at Harvard, put the promise of an economic revival at the centre of his election campaign. Ma, 57 and educated at Harvard, put the promise of an economic revival at the centre of his election campaign.

"It is a proud victory," said honorary party chairman Lien Chan, according to AFP news agency, saying Ma and his running mate Su Tseng-chang had taken nearly 60% of the overall vote. "The DPP has failed to cope with China 's growth in eight years; we need to engage the mainland to improve the economy. The result gives us a different tomorrow, it gives us a new environment, a new hope and a new future," he said. The torch of democracy should not be extinguished," said the ruling party candidate Frank Hsieh, a former premier.

CAMPIGN

However, as in past elections, this year's race has also seen its share of mudslinging and smearing by supporters from both camps. It is packed with vicious attacks against the Kuomintang (KMT). Many Taiwanese are disgusted with these dirty campaign tactics. The economy has been central to the election campaign, and is linked with policy towards China. The Democratic Progressive Party's Frank Hsieh said Taiwan risked becoming another Tibet if Ma, with his more pro-China views, won. Ma now has to try and reach out to China, but without being seen to compromise Taiwan's security. Hsieh's DPP party had used the last day of campaigning to fan outrage over China's handling of protests in Tibet, warning the crackdown could be replicated in Taiwan. He also had warned voters that if he loses, Ma's party will control both the presidency and the legislature, creating a dangerous imbalance of power.


Ma and Hsieh have both said they want a less confrontational relationship with China. But they were divided on how best to deal with Beijing, which presents both a huge opportunity for the island's powerful business community and a looming threat to its evolving democracy. Hsieh has been more cautious, promising dialogue with China while pledging to defend Taiwan's sovereignty. "In the past the DPP was criticized for not opening up but I will be more compromising, I will do better," Hsieh said as the campaign drew to a close. Hsieh said Taiwan risked becoming another Tibet if Ma, with his more pro-China views, won. Ma now has to try and reach out to China, but without being seen to compromise Taiwan's security.

Since the ruling DPP believes the independence position is popular among Taiwanese, President Chen has used the 2006 presidential poll as a referendum on whether the island should enter the United Nations under the name Taiwan. This issue has also forced the KMT to become more identity-driven: it countered with its own version of the referendum. However, due to China's veto power as a member of the UN Security Council, neither methods will likely lead to Taiwan’s admission. Whether the DPP is likely to benefit for both the presidential and legislative elections remains to be seen.

The recent unrest in Tibet also became an election issue, with both men speaking out against Beijing. Earlier this week Ma talked of a possible Olympic boycott if the situation there deteriorated Hsieh, meanwhile, had argued he would be the best protector of Taiwan's sovereignty, warning that his rival could make Taiwan a "second Tibet". One does not how much pressure China had indirectly applied to the voters through the recent Tibetan crisis to extract this verdict, as many had already made up their minds about which way to vote.

REFERENDUM

Voters were being asked to cast a ballot in two competing referendums on whether Taiwan should join the UN. The more controversial version asked voters if the island should seek membership under the name Taiwan, rather than the island's official name, the Republic of China. Many countries, including the US, have protested, saying the vote is unnecessarily provocative. But now after the poll results, the winner is not quite keen to pursue either of the referendums.

The Central Election Commission also said two referendums calling on the government to work for the island's entry into the United Nations failed. China had warned that the referendums threatened stability in the region. Ma has based his campaign on promises to reverse the pro-independence direction of outgoing President Chen Shui-bian and leverage China's white-hot economic boom to re-energize Taiwan's ailing high-tech economy. He has proposed a formal peace treaty with Beijing that would demilitarize the Taiwan Strait, 100-mile-wide waterway that separates the two heavily armed sides.

TAIWAN AND CHINA: PERPETUAL CONFLICT

In the early 1990s Taiwan made the transition from an authoritarian one-party state to a democracy. Taiwan has one of Asia's few functioning democracies and one of its strongest economies. But for the island's 23 million people, the future is overshadowed by an unresolved dispute with China. Taiwan is the island which has for all practical purposes been independent for half a century, but which China regards as a rebel region that must be reunited with the mainland - by force if necessary. Beijing has threatened to use force if the island moves towards formal independence.

Taiwan and the mainland China split amid civil war in 1949, but China still considers the island to be part of its territory. China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, when the defeated Nationalist government fled to the island as the Communists, under Mao Zedong, swept to power. Beijing has threatened to attack if Taiwan rejects unification and seeks a permanent break. China has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.China sees the island as a breakaway province which should be reunified, by force if necessary. Hundreds of Chinese missiles now aim across the Taiwan Strait to bring home the point.

Taiwan has no seat at the United Nations, having lost it to China in 1971. Repeated attempts to regain representation at the UN have been blocked. China insists that nations cannot have official relations with both China and Taiwan, with the result that Taiwan has formal diplomatic ties with only two dozen countries - Pacific, South American and African states in the main. Despite its diplomatic isolation, Taiwan has become one of Asia's big traders. It is considered to have achieved an economic miracle, becoming one of the world's top producers of computer technology.


Tension across the Taiwan Strait has encouraged an arms race, with the Taiwan government saying hundreds of Chinese missiles are aimed at the island. The military threat is partly offset by the pivotal relationship between Taipei and Washington, which is the main weapons supplier to the island - one of the world's biggest buyers of arms. The state of war between the two sides still exists, as no peace treaty has ever been signed. Taiwan is armed to the teeth, mainly with U.S. weapons, and China is rapidly modernising its military to close the technology gap.


Chinese President Hu Jintao offered earlier this month peace talks, under the so-called "one China" principle, which contends the island and the mainland are part of a single sovereign country, a concept Taiwan's current government has rejected. Both sides are used to dealing with this fraught relationship, and closer economic ties may eventually make conflict less likely. But until that happens, any flare-up over Taiwan would have much wider implications. Most importantly, it could quickly suck the US into conflict with China, because of US security assurances to Taiwan.


But tensions notwithstanding, Taiwan and China enjoy healthy trade links. China is Taipei's number one export market. Taiwanese companies have invested billions of dollars in China, drawn by low costs and a common language and culture. China is also Taiwan's biggest trading partner. Yet there are still no direct flights allowed across the narrow Taiwan Strait, aside from limited charter services. Voters hoped that Ma would help cross-Strait relations to return to normal and that both sides can see a win-win solution.

MA PLAN

So, Ma may concentrate on the easier aspects of dealing with China, such as practical issues like the ban on direct links, rather than far thornier political problems. And he will have to prioritise Taiwan's pressing domestic economic issues. "In the near future we can expect direct flights and tourism. But a peace agreement isn't so easily possible. Our national development is a new priority," said Chao Chien-min, professor at Taipei's National Cheng Chi University. But in a gesture of friendship to Beijing, Ma said he would accept two pandas offered by China to the island three years ago and rejected by the then-ruling DPP. "People want a clean a government instead of a corrupt one," said Ma, also a former justice minister. "They want a good economy, not a sluggish one. They don't want political feuding. They want peace across the Taiwan Strait. No war." "Although we lost the election, we have a more important mission.


The president elect Ma told a news conference that China remains the greatest security threat. "Taiwan's identity has to be respected, and we have to negotiate with each other on equal footing. What I can promise voters is that we will not negotiate the issue of unification and we will not support de jure independence," he added, speaking in fluent English. "And we will oppose the use of force across the Taiwan Strait." An end to more than half a century of hostility and tension between Taiwan and China may be in the offing with the election of a more China-friendly president for the island, but progress will be slow and tortuous.Many Taiwanese think closer links with Beijing would help revive the island's faltering economy - but ties have been strained under President Chen because of his pro-independence stance.


Ma said after winning the poll: "We have already reached some consensus on the normalization of economic ties, direct air links, and on allowing more Chinese tourists, and it will be relatively easy to reach an agreement on those issues,”. Ma would want to reassure voters that he was not selling out to China. In a move sure to infuriate Beijing, Ma said he'd be happy to meet Tibet's exiled spiritual leader the Dalai Lama, who China has accused of masterminding the violence in Tibet.

Ma backs a 1992 consensus between Beijing and Taipei under which both accepted the formula of "One China" but agreed to interpret it to suit their own purposes. He reiterated a promise not to declare Taiwan's independence -- China has threatened to invade if it does so -- but not to negotiate unification either, and to oppose the use of force across the 130-kilometre (80-mile) strait that divides the nations. "Taiwan's identity has to be respected," he said. Ma seeks a peace accord including military confidence-building measures to avoid a flashpoint incident; and Taiwan's diplomatic status on the world stage, where it has been squeezed by Beijing. Returning to the 1992 consensus -- in other words, leaving the sensitive issue of sovereignty to one side, Ma said. "But this will be his biggest challenge, because cross-Strait relations take a lot of negotiation and Taiwan does not have the people who will be able to do that. Therefore we could be at a disadvantage," an analyst said.


Ma wants to negotiate an economic cooperation agreement; Economically, Ma wants to lower barriers to Taiwanese investment on the mainland — it already amounts to more than $100 billion — and begin direct air and maritime links between the sides. Ma is particularly interested in expanding the China-Taiwan high-tech connection, which every year sends billions of dollars' worth of Taiwan's advanced components to low-cost assembly plants along China's rapidly developing east coast. Ma wants to act quickly, introducing direct flights to the mainland and easing restrictions on investment in China. He has called for the creation of a "common market". He has also proposed the agreement of a formal peace treaty with China.

Taiwan says China has about 1,000 missiles aimed at the island. Ma indicated that he would move away from the stance of arch-nationalist Chen Shui-bian, who steps down in May. Ma said he would not consider talking peace with China, which claims the self-ruled island as its own, until Beijing removes missiles aimed at Taiwan. As promised by him, Ma would discuss the independence issue during his tenure. But according analysts, relations with China will likely to come slowly. Even if Ma can manage to resume cross-strait dialogue and build mutual trust with Beijing, it probably will not happen in the first two years, they reason.

In any case clearer statements are yet to be pronounced by both China and Taiwan.