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Musharraf to stay?

Muhammad Shafiq - 4/4/2008

President Pervez Musharraf's future has been under discussion in the country and abroad, especially after 'unexpected' results in the February 18 general election, which saw a landslide victory for opposition parties. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) of the late Benazir Bhutto, now led by her widower, Asif Ali Zardari, and the Pakistan Muslim League of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif now enjoy a two-thirds majority in parliament and they are in a position to impeach the president. There are also reports indicating that the president may quit after the completion of the election process when governments in all the four provinces are installed.

However, if the president is not impeached by his rival parties which have come to power in the Centre and set to form governments in all the four provinces, or he does not leave his office voluntarily, it will mean that he has still a role to play to safeguard US interests in the region, particularly its so-called war on terrorism, which has now made inroads into all parts of the country after raging in tribal areas for many years. However, it is yet to be seen that how can a weaker Musharraf play an effective role in the war as he failed to produce desired results even when he doubled as president and army chief of the country.

All analysts and political parties that were against contesting elections under President Musharraf and instead launching a drive to oust him were proved wrong. The election result proved that the decision of Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif to take part in the election was prudent. Had the PPP and the PML-N not participated in the election, the lawyers' movement for the restoration of the judiciary would have failed miserably. All judges have been released and their reinstatement is a matter of weeks because of the wise decision of the popular political parties.

Undoubtedly, President Pervez Musharraf had allowed Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif to return to the country from exile under the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), under which cases against them were quashed and they were allowed to take part in politics and the election. It is obvious that President Pervez Musharraf was well aware of the fact that both Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif were popular leaders of the country and they could upset his applecart once they were allowed to return and take part in politics. Logically, he must have taken some assurances from them about his future. So, there must be more to the NRO than what meets the eyes.

However, the most powerful factor in his prolonged stay in power will be the US. People who know ground realities in Pakistan understand that if the US has carved a role for him in the new setup, no one in the country, including the threatening ruling coalition, most critical and vocal being Mr Sharif, can dare remove him. Some analysts believe the ruling coalition will soften its stance against President Mushrraf in a few months and he would be allowed to play his role in the war on terror. They say the PPP has already soften its stance against the president and the PML-N will follow suits in a few months.

Some political observers believe President Musharraf was totally unfazed by the release and expected reinstatement of judges, who were sacked by him under an emergency. They think the reinstated judges cannot take up cases against President Musharraf and the NRO, under which both Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif had been pardoned. Both understand their limitations and may not attempt Mr Musharraf's impeachment after he refuses to step down willingly.

If the new government allows the US to continue air strikes, without even informing it, it spells disaster for it, because the opposition rode a popular sentiment against President Pervez Musharraf and his party, the PML-Q, for their policy on the war on terror which has killed thousands of innocent people and security personnel in the country. If Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif looked the other way while US missile strikes inside Pakistani territory continued, their coalition government will lose public support sooner than expected. Some analysts fear the US has helped the return of a democratic setup in the country as a stopgap arrangement for the continuation of military rule and the war on terror. They say the war is more important for the US to advance its agenda in the region and in the country than promoting democracy and individuals in Pakistan. The US will facilitate only those who serve its interests.

The new government should realize the US administration that there is no quick fix for elimination of terrorism in the country. It is a political matter and should be resolved politically. The US should understand that terror breeds terror as it has seen in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Kashmir and other parts of the world. Pakistan needs to integrate tribal areas and provide them with equal rights and basic amenities, at par with all developed parts of the country, to eliminate their sense of deprivation which forms the basis of terrorism and intolerance in the country. The new government has announced some steps for the development of backward and tribal areas and empowerment of people, but the real issue is their implementation in letter and spirit, otherwise addressing the issue of terrorism will remain a pipedream, only to haunt the people of the country and the whole world.