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Why McCain may win

Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury - 4/25/2008

Undoubtedly any sensible individual will have the right to ask question as to why researchers in Weekly Blitz [who are very closely monitoring the Presidential electoral process in United States] are finally predicting a clean victory of Republican candidate Senator John McCain in the election, which is scheduled to take place on November 4, 2008.

First of all, let us have a glimpse over his stand on rights of journalists.

In a break with his party and President Bush, Senator McCain is throwing his support behind a federal law that aims to protect a journalist's right to conceal confidential sources from the courts.

The presumptive Republican nominee announced his position on the Free Flow of Information Act, or federal shield law at annual meeting of the Associated Press.

The shield law, which still allows for courts in some national security cases to demand testimony on confidential sources from journalists, has been championed by press freedom groups. Some studies show a tenfold increase in the number of journalists subpoenaed before the courts since 2001. Most notable in that group is a former New York Times reporter, Judith Miller, who in 2005 was forced to hand over her notes of conversations with Vice President Cheney's chief of staff, I. Lewis Libby.

In his remarks, Mr. McCain said he was wary that the new law could be a "license to do harm, perhaps serious harm." He said also that he believed that the New York Times crossed a line when it published details about a secret National Security Agency surveillance program aimed at intercepting communications between Al Qaeda operatives abroad and Americans.

But despite these risks, the Arizona lawmaker said the proposed law was also a "license to do good; to disclose injustice and unlawfulness and inequities; and to encourage their swift correction." He said that if he had to vote on the bill today, he would vote in favor of it.

Mr. McCain's position on the shield law is the same as the two Democratic senators contending for their party's presidential nomination. Spokesmen yesterday for both the Clinton and Obama campaigns said the Democratic candidates supported the Free Flow of Information Act. Senator Obama was an initial co-sponsor of the bill currently before the Senate. The position of the presidential candidates contrasts not only with that of the White House but also with views expressed by the heads of most of the executive branch agencies and departments that deal in classified information. The Department of Justice on its Web site has devoted a special page to posting letters to Congress from these department heads opposing the bill.

The latest such letter, written April 7 by Secretary of Energy Bodman, said, "Regardless of who bears responsibility for the occurrence of the initial security breach or loss of classified data, there can be no doubt that once such a breach has occurred, it is in the national security interest of the United States to ascertain how, when, and why the breach or loss occurred, to ascertain and limit the damage caused, and to prevent such breaches or losses in the future." Ms. Miller yesterday said she welcomed Mr. McCain's endorsement. "I believe that the measure, as currently worded, goes out of its way to ensure that America's national security interests will be protected. Without a federal shield law, it's an independent, free press that is now vulnerable," she said.

Mr. McCain also seized on remarks made last week by Mr. Obama at a fundraiser in San Francisco suggesting that rural Americans "cling" to guns and religion because of bitterness about the loss of industrial jobs. "On the contrary," Mr. McCain said. "Their faith had given generations of their families purpose and meaning, as it does today. And their appreciation of traditions like hunting was based in nothing other than their contribution to the enjoyment of life."

Mr. Obama, who has been defending himself over those remarks for the past three days, tried to turn the tables, saying that Americans were bitter about the failure of national politicians to address the effects of economic globalization. "Now, Senator McCain and the Republicans in Washington are already looking ahead to the fall and have decided that they plan on using these comments to argue that I'm out of touch with what's going on in the lives of working Americans," he said in a separate appearance before the Associated Press group. "I don't blame them for this — that's the nature of our political culture, and if I had to carry the banner for eight years of George Bush's failures, I'd be looking for something else to talk about, too," Mr. Obama said.

Mr. Obama was asked by the chairman of the Board of the Associated Press, William Dean Singleton, whether he favored shifting troops from Iraq to fight "Obama bin Laden." Mr. Obama corrected Mr. Singleton and said, "I think that was Osama bin Laden." He then took a drink of water. Mr. Singleton apologized. Mr. Obama then said, "No, no, no this is part of the exercise that I've been going through over the last 15 months, which is why it's pretty impressive I'm still standing here."

Spring has sprung, there’s a spring in the step of Republicans. “I can’t see how McCain can lose,” one Bush administration officials put it this way. That may well be a tad optimistic. But John McCain currently leads in match-up polls between him and either Democratic candidate. People are tiring of this endless Obama-Clinton saga and the increasingly-overheated rhetoric. The seeds of a Democratic defeat, moreover, can be found in this Gallup poll. Take a look at it and then consider these 10 ways McCain could yet become the 44th president of the United States.

McCain proves to people he is not George W. Bush. Yes, his association with Bush’s Iraq policy could be a millstone around his neck. But McCain has never been personally close to Bush and theirs was a bitter 2000 nomination battle. His Vietnam record also sets him apart – no one can brand him a chicken hawk.

National security moves back to the top of the political agenda. It’s not there at the moment – voters are much more preoccupied with the economy. But that could change any time, most dramatically with a 9/11-style attack.

If Americans feel threatened and don’t want to take a gamble on an untested new commander-in-chief then McCain could be their man – particularly if Obama is his opponent.

The Democratic race drags on into mid-June, let alone August. The Gallup poll above is alarming for Democrats.

Some 28 per cent of Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee while 19 per cent of Obama types say they would back McCain over Clinton.

The bottom line is, the longer this drags on, the more divided Democrats are and the more opportunity for McCain.

McCain continues to attract more Democrats than Obama or Clinton attracts Republicans. We’ll see but it could be that the Obamacan phenomenon has been over-played and that, particularly as he faces greater scrutiny, Obama becomes identified more and more as a traditional McGovern-style liberal.

If Hillary Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee. A polarising figure who is seen by many Democrats to have “stolen” the nomination, she is fatally wounded before the general election. She starts off with 45 per cent of the country implacably opposed to her. McCain only needs to peel off a few points to win.

If Barack Obama becomes the Democratic nominee. He loses Pennsylvania and several other of the final 10 contests. His star is already seen to be fading before the general election starts after Hillary successfully damages his “electability” credentials.

The Democratic nominee is hit by a big scandal:

For all Hillary’s protestations about having been tested and vetted and battle-scared, wherever there’s a Clinton there’s a potential for scandal. Bill’s financial dealings abroad (there’s a probably reason why the Clinton tax returns haven’t yet been released) or a 21st-Century Monica Lewinsky (does anyone seriously think that the former president, who spends only a handful of nights with his wife each month, is a paragon of good behaviour?) seem possible areas. Obama? More could come out about the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. Or some other radical that Obama has been associated with. Or something no one’s even thought of yet.

Race or sex rather than age starts to define the general election. Obama is already in danger of being defined as the “black candidate” and there are plenty of outside Republican groups who will be happy to exploit the issue. Many Americans, particularly if national security is a big factor, might conclude that it is a risk to elect a woman – one more incident of crying from Hillary might do it.

McCain unites conservatives:

There’s no doubt he has work to do but even without Hillary being his opponent there are ways he can win over conservatives. A key factor could be who he chooses as his running mate. A Southern governor like Mark Sanford of South Carolina, or Rob Portman, former congressman, OMB director and US Trade Rep who just happens to hail from the swing state of Ohio might just do the trick.

The press falls in love with McCain again. No doubt about it, Obama is the media darling of the moment. But intense love affairs often fade after their early promise. In 2000, McCain aides joked that the media was his “base”. Obama can be prickly and defensive with the media, particularly when he’s under pressure. There’s an undercurrent of mutual loathing between Hillary and the press. McCain is lavish with access [even the Brits get a big look in] and that maverick schtick never seems to lose its appeal.

An apparent simultaneous software glitch in thousands of Diebold electronic voting machines across United States during the night of first week of April accidentally released word that Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain will officially win the general election on Nov. 4.

Release of the preset presidential election results months prematurely could become a serious embarrassment to the company whose expensive and allegedly unreliable electronic voting machines have been so controversial in some places.

"We really don't know how this happened," a company spokesman told The Ticket, "but we stress that all the congressional election outcomes are still sealed. So there's still some mystery. And we're asking the news media to suppress the presidential news results in order to maintain the national political suspense for another seven months." Obviously, the appeal for secrecy worked on other websites but not on The Ticket.

The computer error is certain to affect negatively the television.

audience ratings on election night, since viewers will have known the winner for exactly 31 weeks. So election night's mounting popular vote counts, the states changing colors, electoral college totals and pleasant people with perfect hairdos predicting state outcomes and discussing what it all means will look like the sham it is, except this time viewers will know it.

On the positive side, the candidates will continue raising millions and campaigning to help fuel the nation's stumbling economy. McCain's writing staff has already set aside his September nominating acceptance speech to begin crafting the January inaugural address. And Republicans can make their inauguration travel and hotel arrangements well in advance and book Wayne Newton.

Also, the fact that neither New York Sen. Hillary Clinton nor Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is going to win anything anyway may help tone down the harsh rhetoric that has characterized their Democratic Party competition in recent days. Both will know by breakfast today that they're competing in useless primaries for a worthless nomination. And the superdelegates won't be so super anymore.

Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy, an Obama supporter, issued an immediate statement urging Clinton to stay in the race as long as possible because one-candidate debates are pretty boring, although even in her absence CNN's commentators will still declare Clinton the winner.

Spokesmen for both parties said their national conventions would go ahead as planned -- the Democrats in Denver and the Republicans in St. Paul -- because they've already paid for the convention centers, and late-summer TV shows are usually lame.

News of McCain's upcoming victory confirms the long-held and often-expressed suspicions of Rep. Ron Paul's supporters about a vast media-corporate conspiracy to ignore the Texan's hopeless, long shot presidential campaign and suppress both his poll numbers and primary voting results to prevent his certain sweep.

Word of the Diebold computer malfunction first leaked shortly after midnight on April Fool's Day on the Onion satirical website. McCain supporters were spotted in several cities celebrating prematurely. The website's exclusive compelling video report is here.

Hypostatically thinking, if Barack Obama finally gets ticket from the Democrats, he will have to fight the electoral battle against Republican candidate John McCain. There are already controversies centering Mr. Obama. Many consider him to be a man with clear inclination towards Islamists. He never pays attention to press freedom or rights of journalists. At least this is someone already proved on many occasions. On the other hand, McCain is a man having strong commitment towards freedom of expression and freedom of press. It is also assumed that, if Mr. Obama is set for the final round of ‘fight’, supporters of Senator Hillary Clinton may not extend their supports to him. And there is quite obvious reason behind such stand. During past several months, Mr. Barack Obama has used extremely abusive words against Senator Hillary Clinton, which was greatly disliked by the supporters of the former first lady. On the other hand, if Ms. Hillary gets the final nomination, supporters of Obama will get angry. Especially Senator Barack Obama has a very charismatic figure like Oprah Winfrey as one of his very effective supporters. Ms. Winfrey used her television show on many occasions to promote Barack Obama. So, quite naturally, Hillary’s nomination will annoy people like Oprah Winfrey. In this case, Democratic candidates will have strong opposition right within their own ‘house’. This will surely turn into clear blessings for Senator John McCain to win the election. According to analysts, Senator Hillary Clinton will be rather a competent contestant for Senator McCain. At least she has a global image as the wife of former President Bill Clinton. In Bangladesh, she has excellent relations with Grameen Bank’s founding father and Nobel Prize laureate Professor Muhammed Yunus. For obvious reason, thousands of employees and beneficiaries of Grameen Bank are continuing to pray for the victory of Ms. Clinton. They want to see her as the next president of United States.

On the other hand, majority of people in the world, who support war on terror and want to see a complete destruction of Islamist forces including Al Qaeda, may wish to see Senator John McCain as the President of United States.

Although it is too early to predict who will be the next president of the United States, realities and circumstances as well as media forecasts in USA and rest of the world stands in favor of McCain. Many people are already considering him to be the next president of United States.