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Pakistan's Foreign Policy Under The Newly Elected Government

Safdar Jafri - 4/29/2008

Despite an inconsistent system of rule, Pakistan has almost surprisingly followed a consistent foreign policy. China has been an all-weather friend while the US a fair-weather one. However, the past few years, particularly since 9/11 and Pakistan's shift in its policy of supporting the Taliban rule in the neighboring Afghanistan and subsequent surge of militancy in its own backyard, has caused some long-term shifts in Pakistan's foreign policy, particularly with regard to its neighboring countries. Under the new democratic set up, which faces daunting economic and political challenges at home, foreign policy is likely to be both interesting and significant in the near future. Ties are likely to improve with India, Afghanistan and Iran while the newfound friendship with the Gulf states will most likely get better. Economy and economic interests will be the most dominant factor behind Pakistan's foreign policy in the new era rather than politics.

China, as a growing economic giant and an old ally of Pakistan, will remain at the top of Pakistan's list of foreign policy. Although Pakistan's good ties with the US have made the maintenance of close relationship with China a tough challenge, the past has shown that both the countries have kept their ties strong despite these pressures. China will continue to play a significant role in Pakistan's economic development. It has investment billions of dollars in the past few years in some very important sectors of Pakistan's economy such as telecom and infrastructure building. It has also been the key partner in the development of the Gawadar Port in the south-west Pakistan, which is likely to become a very valuable investment for China as it will provide it with an easy access to the Gulf region for the export of its products as well as import of oil and gas. The recent visit of China by Musharaf and some key members of the ruling coalition reemphasizes the point that China will remain a strong ally for Pakistan and dominate its foreign policy for a number of reasons.

A wind of change is also blowing for Pakistan's ties with another economic giant, India. Old rivalry is seemingly disappearing and is being replaced with overtures of economic and cultural cooperation. The shift in policy that was reintroduced by Musharaf is likely to grow as both the countries are increasingly exchanging vows of a more constructive and friendly interaction. Past two years have seen considerable growth in both trade and cultural exchanges between the two countries which is a trend that is likely to continue under the new democratic regime. We have seen in the past that democracy in Pakistan has invariably led to a better relationship between the two countries. Recent indication by both Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari to work on the idea of dropping the visa requirements between the two neighbors shows that goodwill exists on both sides that must be encouraged. Both India and Pakistan have posted the highest rates of growth in the region for the past several years and their economic performance has been startling. Better diplomatic, cultural and trade relations will only help boost their mutual progress. However, on a cautious note, given the past history of distrust, dramatic changes are not expected. But the trend is certainly positive and is likely to continue under the new Pakistani government.

Pakistan's relations with the US will continue to remain the focus of the international media and press. Indeed, with an elected government, the ongoing cooperation to counter Islamic militancy will be tested to its core. While cooperation was smooth with the military government under Pervez Musharaf, the accountable nature of the present democratic set up will make it difficult for Pakistan to follow the US plans without considering the public reaction. Nonetheless, it is clear that the cooperation between the two will continue because the US has already admitted that it will have to take the limitations of the new government into account when seeking its cooperation in combating and eliminating the extremists in the northern parts of Pakistan. The US is also likely change its tactics and bring it more in line with the expectations of the new elected government. There is also a proposal to give Pakistan around $7 billion in economic aid. It seems quite likely that Pakistan's engagement with the US as well as its other western allies will continue under the new government against the religious terrorism.

Pakistan's ties with the neighboring Iran has seen considerably improvement since the fall of Taliban in Afghanistan. The economic and diplomatic ties between Iran and Pakistan are likely to thrive in the near future for several reasons. One of the key reasons is the proposed gas pipeline that is to reach India through Pakistan from southern Iran (also known as the IPI - Iran, Pakistan & India pipeline or Peace Pipeline). The idea has been on table for a long while now but given Iran's growing economic isolation and the need to earn valuable foreign exchange through its massive gas reserves and India's soaring demand for gas as well as Pakistan's need to earn the much needed transit fee, the project is quite likely to materialize in the near future. There is indeed a strong opposition by the US to the project in order to isolate Iran further. But both India and Pakistan have repeatedly defied such pressures and have instead opted to continue their efforts to make the project a reality and success. Already the concerned officials from Iran, Pakistan and India have started meeting each other to take the project further by signing the agreement. It is anticipated that the agreement may be signed sometime in 2008.

The newly elected government of Pakistan faces a host of daunting challenges; both political and economic. The challenges have to be met head on with a balanced mix of internal and external policies. In an age where economic growth and development has become the yardstick against which all governments and their performance is measured, effective foreign policy will be critical for the future of Pakistan as well as current coalition government. Good relationship with neighbors and countries that can share economic gains with Pakistan are likely to remain Pakistan's top priority in its foreign policy.