Home >> Former USSR >> Russia Email Print Russian Opposition May Re-emerge With a Solid Candidate for President Masha Beliaeva - 3/22/2005 Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, sacked by Putin last year, reappeared on Russian political horizon as a potential leader of the opposition and a presidential candidate. Kasyanov's candidacy as a leader of liberal coalition is not likely to speed up the process of much wanted unification between Russia's major liberal parties Yabloko and SPS. At present Kasyanov is the only solid potential rival to Putin in the run for presidential elections of 2008, while his timely come back as a pro-democratic leader is a sign that Russian political opposition may stand a chance.
Reemergence of the Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov as a potential presidential candidate and a leader of the opposition can have an ambiguous effect on the much desired unification process of the Russian liberal parties Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces (SPS), however it provides some evidence that Russian political opposition is still alive. Kasyanov's candidacy as the opposition leader has led to a series of controversial comments from representatives of both parties. Boris Nemtsov - a leader of SPS - has expressed a rather positive outlook towards the potential candidate, while Grigory Yavlinskiy - the leader of Yabloko - views Kasyanov as a supporter of the oligarchs and corrupt privatization methods of the 1990s. Thus, Kasyanov's return may be a double-edge sword, leading to more controversy in the unification process, while reinforcing it, and potentially adding more weight to the unified coalition.
Currently, Kasyanov is the only potentially strong rival to the President, but his candidacy is unlikely to speed up the process of unification of the opposition parties. Together with his cabinet, Kasyanov was sacked by President Putin a month before the presidential elections of 2004. As a prime minister, he was openly opposing the President on such controversial issues as nationalization of Russia's natural resources industry and arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Yet, Kasyanov managed to remain in the office for almost four years and showed himself as a clearheaded, brilliant politician. He was as successful at promoting liberal economic and political reforms as President Putin's Prime Minister can afford to be. All this makes him a solid opposition presidential candidate. Then again, some link Kasyanov to the corruption cases of the Russian privatization. While in the office, he was accused of taking bribes and even given a nick name - 'Misha two percent,' for allegedly charging interests on government-backed loans. Even though these accusations have never been proven, it is not surprising that Kasyanov's candidacy is not widely accepted by the members of the opposition parties. At the moment, SPS seems to be supporting his candidacy while Yabloko is strongly opposing it. As a result, Kasyanov's return is likely to add a draw to the unification process.
Nevertheless, reemergence of the opposition, which has possibly been triggered by the unilateral support from the West, is very timely. Putin's popularity is at its lowest and his anti-democratic reforms have been strongly and loudly criticized by the Western powers. Considering the circumstances, pro-liberal former prime minister is likely to build his campaign around democratic reforms. As for other possible opposition candidates, few of them stand a chance. Public majority views current SPS leaders as thieves, while Yavlinskiy, who has run for presidency before, never managed to get enough votes. Handsome Kasyanov, on the other hand, is liked and associated with the stability of Putin's first presidential term and democratic direction. If coalition of the liberal parties takes place, so far he appears to be the only solid opposition candidate available to run as a rival to Putin in the 2008 presidential elections.Masha Beliaeva is the Regional Director of the Emerging Europe practice of Global Political Risk Consulting, LLC (www.gprisk.com) and is a co-president of the "Eurasia-Initiative" at Columbia University. She holds a Bachelor degree in Economics with a minor in Psychology from Barnard College, Columbia University, and is expected to receive Masters of International Affairs in International Economic Policy and Russian/Post-Soviet/East Central European Studies from Columbia University, SIPA, in May 2005.
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