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Maoflation in Nepal

Bhuwan Thapaliya - 5/11/2008

On the 13th of February 1996, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) launched the Nepalese People’s War, in which about 13,000 Nepalese were killed and many other were fatally maimed. They were so brutal then that they were labeled by the US government as a foreign terrorist organization. Unfortunately, the tag is still lurking in their head but there are signs of the tag being pulled off by the US government in the near future.

Now, exactly after twelve years and three months, they have emerged as the single largest party through the April 10 Constituent Assembly elections and are all set to lead the next government in Nepal . What a transformation in such a short span of time. Yes, Maoists are what they are today because of their transformation from bullet to the ballot box.

Analysts reckon that the Maoists Nov 22, 2005 historic 12 point agreements with the Seven Party Alliance tilted the tide in their favor.In November 22, 2005, the (Seven Party Alliance (SPA)) of parliamentary parties and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) agreed on a historic and unprecedented 12-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) for peace and democracy.

These days, good news one after another has been coming in favor of the Maoists, who are slowly being regarded as a serious political group amidst some suspicion on the behavior of its Young Communist League (YCL) cadres.

The prospect of a communist Nepal is only the latest blow to the U.S and India . But paradoxically, now they have no choice but to accept the people’s verdict: Maoflation is a reality in Nepal and there are no signs of it deflating at least for few more years if they show their commitment towards democracy and reform their policies.

Take this huge pendulum swing for instance.

“ US ambassador Nancy Powell met with Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal also known as Prachanda, on last Thursday to discuss the outcome of the April 10 elections, CPN – M plans for the Constituent Assembly, and the future of US – Nepal relations. This was their first meeting.” according to the press release issued by the US embassy in Kathmandu .

This moral victory for the Maoists is being seen by the analysts as a major breakthrough in the Maoists relationship with The United States of America.

The US government has labeled the Maoists as a foreign terrorist organization and according to the analysts and diplomatic experts; there are every chances of it pulling the label off after this meeting between Powell and Prachanda that occurred a day in advance of Powell's return to the United States possibly for the consultations on US-Nepal relations.

Though it is hard to find virtue in the talks between US ambassador and the Maoists Chairman: US doesn’t trust the Maoists and the Maoists doesn’t trust the US . Nonetheless, it’s a good sign that at least the two sides are meeting and talking. The long term prognosis is not gloomy.

Analysts reckon that America is trying to force a way through in the Maoists core and prove its parity. It is fed up with its mess in Iraq and Afghanistan and it in a mood to accept the Maoists transformation. Why?

First speculation is that America is on the verge of a major foreign policy change as it older policy, which sees itself as the savior of the world, has drained its resources, and served its enemies well.

Second speculation is that America is well aware of the fact that the Maoists won the election due to the people’s verdict (though in most districts the use of Maoists fear factor cannot be redeemed). And given such people’s sentiment, it is not surprising that the majority of the Nepalese would feel unappreciated if America snare diplomatic means and curb the Maoists transformation.

Hence, America thinks for the moment, the best policy is to accept the Nepalese people’s verdict and shake hand with the Maoists – even if the handshake is tepid.

Meanwhile, many wonder about the future of Nepal under the Maoists leadership. The new questions concerns matters like: What would be Maoists economic policy? Will Maoists rob the rich and feed the poor? Will it punish those who defy their rule? How will the Maoists reform the YCL? Will the West provide economic aid to Nepal under the Maoists leadership? These questions are being heard in every nook and corners of Nepal.

Nonetheless, the biggest fear in Nepal at this point of time is this: Maoists fear other political parties such as the Nepali Congress (NC) and United Marxist and Leninist (UML) and vice versa. More probably, if the trend continues, it will lead to an uproar that will bring Nepal ’s political stability to a pause, it not in halt yet again. So let these be understood by the concerned parties at the earliest.

In the interim, Maoist’s landslide victory in Nepal , much more than anything, has offered a real chance for peace in Nepal and the Nepalese who want peace are happy. But for those who have been fishing in the muddy waters of the Nepalese politics for so long, hoping against the hope to see the nation in chaos and disorder, the successful completion of the Constituent Assembly (CA) Election would be a crashing defeat.

However, the triumph of the Nepalese people could have a paradoxical result, partly because the Nepalese politicians are so insistent about the sanctity of long run political stability. Governments in Nepal have tended to be highly unstable; no government has survived for more than two years since 1991.

Governing Nepal with its vast arrays of problems such as massive unemployment, rising food and energy costs, ethnic division, mega underdevelopment syndromes, etc is not as easy as it looks on the paper but if consensus is reached within the political parties, then the task is not that difficult either. Hence, if the political parties of Nepal really want an end to political uncertainties, now is the time to lift the consensus glass on offer, pronounce it half full, and use it wash down the bitter pills needed to secure the peace.

Furthermore, Maoists may have won the election, but Maoists still have a lot of hard thinking to do as the cold statistics suggest that it cannot do the job by itself to transform Nepal . They may do the things differently, more people friendly than other political parties, but for as far ahead as one can see, Maoists will have to accept some hard realities.

“There may indeed emerge, out of the mistiness of its “identity- building”, the concrete shape of a Nepali political pillar. But the pillar will be pretty modest in size. And it will still need a solid connection to the other political parties of Nepal ,” according to the analytical reports.

First, though, it is important to understand how will the Maoists revive the economy of Nepal ?

Behind all the mush about “New Nepal” the simple point is that the cost of building New Nepal is mounting. The reason is simple: Nepal doesn’t have enough resources to generate capital inorder to build, “New Nepal,” they claim to be building.

From where are we to get enough capital to build New Nepal we claim to be building? What are our resources? We talk about electricity, herbs export, and all, but till now it has been a myth and there are every chances of it remaining so if concrete step isn’t taken at the earliest.

Considering so, Maoist should make economic reform their main course if they are to have any impact in Nepal . And if they cannot reform economically then they too would face the people’s heat in the near future. It is easy to preach than to rule. And moreover, Maoists party came to power because of the poor and the youths favor. But if they fail to address the issues of the youth and the poor, then they shall be punished by them too. So let this be understood by the Maoists.

Finally, On February 4, 1996, Baburam Bhattarai gave the government, led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, a list of 40 demands, threatening civil war if they were not met. The demands related to "nationalism, democracy and livelihood" and included such line items as the "domination of foreign capital in Nepali industries, business and finance should be stopped", and "discriminatory treaties, including the 1950 Nepal-India Treaty, should be abrogated", and "land under the control of the feudal system should be confiscated and distributed to the landless and the homeless, “as published by South Asia Intelligence Review, February 4, 1996.

Now, as the Maoists are almost certain to lead the next government, it is not too long before we shall see how Baburam Bhattarai and his team would address the issues that were sprouted by them and their party some twelve years ago.

If they fail to address the very issues raised by them, then there are every chances of the Maoflation being deflated in Nepal as history suggests that Nepalese people have all the resources needed for change – unemployment, poverty, diseases, hunger, frustration and all to come up with yet another revolution.