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U.S.-Russia Missile Defense Tensions and Russian Military Resurgence

Lorna Thomas - 5/20/2008

For many in the U.S. and Britain, one of 2007's surprises - or shocks - was the resurgence of Russia as a force to be reckoned with. Buoyed by wealth gained as an oil producer in an oil dependent world, Russia displayed renewed confidence on the world stage.

Analysts frequently alluded to the return of the Cold War as relations strained between the U.S. and Britain and Russia. In Britain tensions increased following the request and subsequent refusal by Russia for the extradition of Andrey Lugavoy, a suspect in Aleksander Litvenenko's death.

Aside from U.S. concerns over democracy in Russia and Kosovo's independence, one of the main reasons for the heightened tensions in 2007 was Russia's opposition to the U.S. proposal of a missile defense system on Polish and Czech soil, a system the U.S. claimed would protect against attacks by so-called “rogue states”. Russia asserted the placement would threaten its national security and threatened an arms race for which it would not be held responsible.

After a number of discussions regarding the missile shield defense system during 2007 continuing into 2008, little headway seemed to be made until on 6 April, 2008 a strategic framework declaration was signed by President Bush and President Putin during their last Presidential meeting at Sochi.

One of the most far-reaching proposals in the declaration is the proposal of a joint Russian-European-U.S. missile defense system.

“Missile Defense. The leaders expressed their interest in creating a system for responding to potential missile threats in which Russia and the United States and Europe will participate as equal partners.

Russia has made clear that it does not agree with the decision to establish sites in Poland and the Czech Republic and reiterated its proposed alternative. Yet, it appreciates the measures that the United States has proposed and declared that if agreed and implemented such measures will be important and useful in assuaging Russian concerns.

We agreed to intensify our dialogue after Sochi on issues concerning missile defense cooperation both bilaterally and multilaterally.”

President Bush lauded the proposal as a “significant breakthrough” - however, this idea is nothing new.

A joint Russia-EU-U.S. missile defense system is, in fact, President Putin's own proposal dating back to 2000 which he actively promoted at the time – a proposal that is not in U.S. interests.

While President Putin may have vehemently opposed a missile defense system on Polish and Czech soil, two countries with which Russia has a history of enmity and occupation respectively, he has never opposed a missile defense system in Europe. (In June 2007 at Kennebunkport, President Putin suggested the U.S. use the Gabala radar, Russia leases from Azerbaijan and in September 2007, Moscow also suggested a possible defense system in the south of Russia.)

The Clinton administration proposed a “limited defense intended to protect against the missiles of “rogue” states like North Korea” but which offered no protection to Europe. In 2000 President Putin promoted the idea of a joint Russian-European-U.S. defense shield system to the Clinton administration and to European leaders. While in Italy at the time, Mr Putin also described to Pope John Paul II his vision of how Russia should be integrated into Western Europe and how the Vatican could help the process.

In 2000, some analysts viewed the joint defense proposal with Russia and the European Union as contrary to U.S. interests.

An article in the New York times on 6 June 2000, described Mr. Putin's proposal at the time as resembling a ''boost phase defense'' using short- and medium-range missiles to destroy rockets on their way up, instead of intercepting warheads on their way down. “This could in theory ward off attacks from so-called ''rogue'' states, but would be of little use against the Russian nuclear force.” Paul Beaver, an expert at Jane's Missiles and Rockets at the time, described Russia's long-term objective as being to “change the balance of power in the world currently dominated by the United States” by aligning with Europe.

His presidency is nearing its end but perhaps President Bush would have done better, rather than looking into Putin's eyes in 2001 and getting “a sense of his soul”, to have focused on not underestimating Putin's goals for Russia or Russia's potential as shown in the article below published in 2001:

“Russia occupies a unique geopolitical position. It abuts most of the important regions of the Eastern Hemisphere, including Western Europe and the oil-rich Middle East. It is a prime exporter of the arms and energy many of these regions desire. Such a position enables President Putin to focus his foreign policies on ways to increase Russia's prestige and power. While abroad, Putin speaks about advancing economic reform and attracting foreign investment; at home, he talks about the "dictatorship of law" and strengthening the Russian state. As Michael McFaul of the Carnegie Endowment points out, Putin wears two hats: one when he speaks to the Russian people and another when he addresses foreign audiences. It is an ability that must not be underestimated by the new Bush Administration.

Restoring ties with Europe has become a personal objective for Putin, who has cultivated a friendship with Prime Minister Tony Blair and also has carefully strengthened Moscow's ties to Chancellor Gerhardt Schroeder of Germany. As France and Germany have sought to strengthen the European Union and offset European military reliance on the United States, Moscow has begun to express an interest in joining the ESDP, which would drive a wedge between Europe and the United States. Russia's offer to construct a common missile defense with the EU may have been made with the same strategic goal in mind.”

“Putin's Foreign Policy and U.S.- Russian Relations”, The Heritage Foundation, Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., 18 January, 2001

The strategic framework declaration of 6 April, 2008 also stated:

“Recalling our Joint Statement of November 13, 2001 on a New Relationship

Between the United States and Russian and our Joint Declaration of May 24, 2002, we reaffirm that the era in which the United States and Russia considered one another an enemy or strategic threat has ended.“

Contrary to President Bush's repeated assurances that Russia is 'not a military threat' or 'an enemy' and President Putin's denial of Russian “aggressiveness” while delivering threats and rearming - particularly under a future leadership - Russia has the potential to be both a military threat and an enemy. It should not be underestimated.

In 2007, Russia resumed long range bomber patrols, increased its military spending and in January 2008, according to Defense chief, General Yury Baluevsky Russia would protect defend its own and its allies' sovereignty and territorial integrity” and “ may resort to a pre-emptive nuclear strike in cases specified by its doctrine."

As the U.S. and Britain continue to diminish in power and prestige, including economically, against a strengthening Europe and Russia, both the U.S. and Britain need to understand that Russia is drawing closer to playing a forceful military role in the world, fully aligned with and part of Europe and that it can potentially pose both a military threat and be an enemy not only to the U.S., but to Britain and a free world.

Before underestimating Russia's potential, President Bush would do well to consider the advice of one of the world's most ancient and influential books on military strategy, “The Art of War” by Sun Tzu.

“He who exercises no forethought but makes light of his opponents is sure to be captured by them.”

Even more than this warning, the U.S. and Britain need to understand that though God can and will protect them against their enemies, as so many Biblical passages show if a nation who professes to worship the God of the Bible forgets and forsakes Him and His Laws, including going after other gods and bowing before and worshipping idols, provoking Him to jealousy and anger, they will utimately go into national captivity to their enemies.

Unless the U.S. and Britain heed the warnings given in passages like Lev 26 and Deut 28 and understand that the blessings they have enjoyed as leading nations are being replaced by cursings, unless they turn back to the God of the Bible they profess to worship, after experiencing increasing troubles including economic troubles, war, famine, disease, the grim reality is that the U.S. and Britain from being amongst the most blessed nations, are not only heading into the economic recession or depression many fear, they are heading into national captivity to their enemies, a captivity from which only God will be able to deliver.

THE MISSILE DEFENSE ISSUE OF 2007 AND 2008 GOES BACK TO 2000

Though President Putin has not wanted a system on Polish or Czech soil, a system of joint missile defense in Europe was actually Mr Putin's proposal to the U.S. and Europe in 2000. President Putin has not been against missile defense in Europe, simply against its placement in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The tense rhetoric of 2007 and the subsequent strategic framework declaration of April 2008 signed by Presidents Bush and Putin may be seen in a somewhat different light with the knowledge that President Putin was the first one to actually propose a joint Russian-EU-U.S. missile defense system in 2000 to the Clinton administration and to European leaders, suggesting it again in September 2007.

President Putin has ended his presidency with a declaration paving the way for EU and Russian missile defense co-operation (6 April 2008) as well as an agreement signed on his last full working day as President (6 May 2008) for nuclear co-operation between the U.S. and Russia. The U.S. which controls much of the world's nuclear fuel will help Russia achieve its goal of establishing an international nuclear fuel storage facility by importing and storing spent fuel. The U.S. is to be given access to Moscow's nuclear technology. These agreements ultimately benefit Russia and Europe rather than the U.S., and though they may initially include U.S. involvement, this will be temporary.

Russia, as I have written over the last years, is going to be a strong force in Europe under Russian military leadership, and is increasingly drawing closer to Europe in all spheres including religion which will play a major role.

Washington wanted to put 10 interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar system in the Czech Republic.

Speaking ahead of the G8 summit in June 2007, President Putin stated: "If part of the U.S.' strategic nuclear arsenal is located in Europe and our military experts find that it poses a threat to Russia, we will have to take appropriate retaliatory steps. We will have new targets in Europe."

If Washington did not abandon its plans, Putin warned: "...then we will withdraw any responsibility for our retaliatory measures because it wasn't us who initiated a new round of arms race development in Europe."

At the G8 summit in June 2007, President Putin made a surprise suggestion that the U.S. use the Gabala radar Russia leases from Azerbaijan, stating that if the proposal was implemented, there would be no need to create new radars in Europe or new bases to place missile interceptors. It would be enough to place them on floating platforms or on the territory of southern countries including NATO countries and in that case there would be "no necessity for Russia to target their missiles at Europe".

Discussions continued in Kennebunkport, Maine over 1-2 July, 2007 when President Putin joined the Bush family in their compound for fishing and lobster. President Bush spoke of Mr Putin's offer as an addition to the U.S. plan, not a substitute. Mr Bush said. "He just laid out a vision. I think it's very sincere. I think it's innovative, I think it's strategic but as I told Vladimir I think that the Czech Republic and Poland need to be an integral part of this system."

By September 2007, a compromise had still not been reached as talks between Russia and the U.S. reopened in Paris following U.S. consultations with Poland and the Czech Republic. At the APEC forum in Sydney, President Bush and President Putin discussed the controversial issue on the sidelines. Again, no compromise was reached.

On 19 September 2007, after a group of American experts toured the Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan the previous day, according to a Russian new agency, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Kislyak said that "Two rounds of consultations have been held, but I cannot say that our positions have been made closer."

President Putin's idea of a joint missile defense shield system in Europe, a proposal first expressed by him in 2000, was again made in September 2007 – the anti-missile shield possibly being placed in Russia.

"Also, as another possible plan, Moscow has proposed that part of the anti-missile defence shield - joint system between Russia, the U.S. and the EU - could potentially be placed in the South of Russia."

"Russia and U.S. resuming talks on anti-nukes in Europe", Russia Today, 10 September, 2007

On 30 January, 2008 RIA Novosti reported that Russia's defense Ministry plans to change the configuration of troops in Kaliningrad in response to U.S. missile shield plans in Central Europe.

In a speech given on 8 February, 2008, President Putin said: "It is already clear that a new arms race is being unleashed in the world. It's not our fault. We didn't start it."

He said: "Developed countries, exploiting their technological supremacy, channel enormous funds -- several times larger than our disposable means -- into the creation of new defensive and offensive systems."

Yet, President Putin himself had proposed a joint missile defense system in 2000 broaching it to the Clinton administration and EU leaders. The proposal would become part of a strategic framework declaration signed by the U.S. and Russia in April 2008.

In his final Press conference to regional and foreign media on 14 February, 2008, again showing his opposition to a Polish site, while threatening to target such a site, President Putin said:

“As for the missile defense issue and so on, it seems to me that this issue is closely linked to economic concerns. I have the impression that someone is deliberately fanning an anti-Russian mood in order to create the moral and political climate for deploying these systems. If you stir up anti-Russian sentiment in Poland it will be easier to convince the public that they need some new weapons systems or other supposedly for their protection. In reality it is not clear where the threat is coming from. They say it is Iranian missiles that are the threat, but we all know that Iran has no such missiles.”

During the conference Mr Putin also said:

“I discussed this matter too with the Polish Prime Minister. If such systems are deployed on Polish territory or attempts are made to use them to neutralise our nuclear missile potential, this would upset the strategic balance in the world and would be a threat to our national security, and we would have no choice in such a situation but to take countermeasures, including possibly retargeting our offensive missile systems against the sites we consider to pose a threat. “

He stated that:

“If this system is established, we will be forced to make an appropriate response. In such a situation we probably would be forced to retarget our missiles against the sites that represent a threat. But it is not we who are creating these sites. We are asking that this not go ahead, but no one is listening. We are giving a clear warning right from the start that if you take this step this is the response you can expect from us.”


On 18 March, 2008 talks were held between US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and defense Secretary Robert Gates in Moscow and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov. (President Putin had reacted positively to a document from President Bush that outlined the U.S. agenda for the talks “It is a serious document which we have carefully analyzed,” Putin said. “If we manage to agree on its main provisions, we will be able to say that our dialogue is progressing successfully.")

After the meeting, Sergey Lavrov said the two countries "had not yet reached an agreement - above all on the missile defense system and a future arms control regime". After the meeting, Anatoly Serdyukov, Russian defense Minister said “In principal our positions have not changed. Today we have heard a number of measures and we hope they will be presented to us in writing. Our experts then will have an opportunity to discuss them and to understand what stands behind them and again we can say we have a lot of work to do but we need to see these proposals. And then following the work at the expert level we can understand how to move forward....As of now I can say our positions have not changed.”

”We had the opportunity today to elaborate on a number of confidence-building measures and measures for transparency to provide assurance to the Russia that our missile sites and radars would not constitute a threat to Russia,” U.S. Defense Secretary, Robert Gates said.

On 19 March, 2008 Mr. Bush told Radio Farda he was “cautiously optimistic” about the negotiations, saying “I don’t know whether we can find common ground. But we are trying to find common ground, and that’s what’s — that’s the first step, is to make the attempt.”

In an interview with the newspaper Izvestia on 20 March, 2008, Mr Lavrov said: “The American side is prepared to offer us a whole series of confidence-building measures so we can be convinced that the system does not work against us. The idea of these measures boils down to the following: we will have an opportunity to watch what the radar is doing and what the real condition is of the base for interceptor missiles, using both human and technical means.”

While the U.S. is concerned about “confidence-building measures” for Russia regarding placement of a missile defense system on Polish and Czech soil, Russia is achieving exactly what President Putin suggested in 2000. A system of joint missile defense in Europe which includes Russia and Europe but which places the U.S. at a distinct strategical disadvantage. The U.S. should be more concerned about the implications of this proposal for itself than trying to appease and placate Russia who itself suggested a missile defense system in Europe. Russia, as part of Europe, will be part of a superpower that will be able to challenge the U.S.

President Putin said at Sochi in April 2008:”And the third issue mentioned by President Bush, he says that we should work together on these systems, it would be desirable. I believe that this is the most important thing, if, at the expert level, and then at the political level, we are able to start cooperation on a global missile defense system, as we are now talking about - missile defense in Europe - if we manage to achieve this kind of level of cooperation on a global missile defense system, this will be the best kind of result for all our proceeding efforts.”


Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger heads a panel called "Russia-USA: A Look Into the Future" with former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov. In July 2007, they held talks in Moscow.

“Addressing the panel's first meeting, Putin thanked its participants for their quick response to the idea to set up such a high-level group, first aired during his April meeting with Kissinger and Primakov, and urged them to keep the debate as close to the ground as possible.”

Kissinger who served under Richard Nixon during the Cold War, told Russia Today in an exclusive interview broadcast on 6 May, 2008 that he believes Russia and the U.S. will be strategic partners rather than opponents and he personally strongly advocates working together with Russia in Azerbaijan or South of Russia in the field of missile defense. While he said the U.S. will not give up plans in Poland and the Czech Republic, they have offered not to place missiles until Iran actually tests missiles which threaten the U.S. or Europe, something Kissinger believes is still “quite a few years in the future.”

Based on this, the likely outcome is that if the U.S. is committed to waiting for several years, Russia would instead build a defense system on its own soil in the interim, and plans for a defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic never materialize.

The result of joint missile defense between Europe and Russia will be precisely what President Putin has sought for nearly a decade, but which has the potential to drastically undermine U.S. security and change the balance of power in the world. More than seeking to allay Russia's fears regarding the system being used against them by so-called “confidence-building measures”, the U.S. needs to be concerned about the implications for its own safety under the proposed joint European-Russian global missile defense system.

AFTER 8 YEARS PRESIDENT PUTIN GETS HIS WAY AT SOCHI – U.S. AGREEMENT TO A JOINT EU-RUSSIA MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM - BUT AT WHAT COST TO THE U.S.?

In June 2000 just ahead of a summit with Vladimir Putin, former President Bill Clinton was in Aachen Germany, the third American to receive the Charlemagne Prize, named after the 8th-century king who unified Europe.

It was here that Clinton stated that Russia must become "fully part of Europe"."No doors can be sealed shut to Russia, not NATO's, not the EU's," he said."The alternative would be a future of harmful competition between Russia and the West and the end of our vision of an undivided continent."

Russia becoming a part of the EU is not to U.S. advantage. In April 2008, with the strategic framework declaration promoting Russian-EU co-operation on missile defense, another important step is being taken towards Russia's full integration into Europe.

The current missile defense issue can be traced to 2000 when according to a New York Times report, the Clinton administration proposed construction of “a limited defense intended to protect against the missiles of ''rogue'' states like North Korea”, but which would offer no protection to Europe.

“In Germany, a senior foreign ministry official, Karsten Vogt, said recently the limited defense planned by the Clinton administration -- which would protect the United States, but not Europe -- would lead to a weakening of the military ties between the United States and its European allies. Mr. Vogt also said Germany did not agree with the assessment of the seriousness of a threat from the ''rogue'' states.”

“U.S. Missile Plan Could Hurt Security Ties, European Says”, New York Times, Jane Perlez, 2 May, 2000

The June 2000 summit was the last official visit to Moscow by President Clinton who met with President Putin “seeking to make progress on his proposal to build a system of national missile defense that requires an agreement to amend the treaty banning such nationwide systems signed by Moscow and Washington more than 30 years ago.”

“If accepted by Russia, the American proposal represents a profound turning point from offensive to defensive strategies by the world's two largest nuclear powers, one with the potential to reignite an arms race and alienate China, whose small nuclear arsenal would loose its deterrent credibility. Mr. Putin sent his foreign minister to New York last month to warn at the United Nations that America's missile defense plans could destabilize three decades of arms control agreements.” “Clinton and Putin meet at Kremlin with wide agenda”, New York Times, Patrick E. Tyler, 4 June, 2000

President Putin then proposed an alternative – the development of a joint U.S., EU and Russian missile defense system which eight years later forms part of the 6 April 2008 strategic framework declaration.

“Putin told NBC News in an interview that he intended to raise the joint missile shield project during his meeting with Clinton.

"Such mechanisms are possible if we pool our efforts and direct them toward neutralizing the threats against the United States, Russia, our allies or Europe in general.

"We have such proposals and we intend to discuss them with President Clinton," Putin said.”

“Putin proposes joint Russian-U.S. missile shield,” CNN, June 2, 2000

“Over the last year, Putin has been proposing that the United States and Europe cooperate with Russia to develop regional non-strategic missile defenses that would not violate the ABM Treaty. On June 6 2000, Putin first proposed that the United States, Russia and NATO jointly establish a pan-European non-strategic missile defense system.”

“Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty”, Naval Treaty Implementation program, Nuclear Strategic Treaties and Agreements

After meeting with President Clinton, according to the New York Times, Vladimir Putin “came to Rome today to sell Europe - and the Vatican - on a Russian alternative to the United States missile defense proposal.”

“The two-day trip was timed to follow his somewhat tense discussions with Mr. Clinton about altering the Antiballistic Missile Treaty. And it was choreographed to put Mr. Putin's heightened sense of Russian power on display.”....

''Russia proposed working with Europe and NATO to create an anti-rocket defense system for Europe,'' Mr. Putin told reporters after meeting with Mr. Amato. ''On one hand, it would avoid all the problems linked to the balance of force. On the other, it would permit in an absolute manner a 100 percent guarantee of the security of every European country.'' “Putin Travels to Rome to Promote Russian Arms Control Alternative”, New York Times, Alessandra Stanley, 6 June, 2000

According to the article, the danger of Putin's joint missile defense proposal was that even though it might ward off an attack from a “rogue” state, it would offer little protection against Russian nuclear force.

“The Russian proposal, which Mr. Putin made public in a NBC News interview last week on the eve of Mr. Clinton's arrival in Moscow, seems to offer the United States and Europe a joint missile defense program using short- and medium-range missiles to destroy rockets on their way up, instead of intercepting warheads on their way down. Mr. Putin's proposal resembles what advocates in the United States call a ''boost phase defense.'' This could in theory ward off attacks from so-called ''rogue'' states, but would be of little use against the Russian nuclear force.

That would make it more acceptable to the Russian military, which fears that a solely American missile force could be used to gain a strategic advantage. But the United States military believes that the Russian approach cannot work, and wants to amend the ABM treaty to build a battle-management radar in Alaska and put 100 interceptors there to protect the 50 states.

In Italy, Mr. Putin emphasized the advantages of his plan to Europe's defense, seeking to exploit European fears that American efforts to rewrite the ABM treaty could destabilize relations with Russia and leave Europe unprotected.”

“Putin Travels to Rome to Promote Russian Arms Control Alternative”, New York Times, Alessandra Stanley, 6 June, 2000

According to the same report, President Putin also visited the Vatican where Vatican spokesman, Joaquin Navarro-Valls said that Putin spoke of his vision of Russia being integrated into Europe with the Vatican's aid:

“Mr. Putin spent most of the 30-minute meeting describing his vision of how Russia should be integrated into Western Europe and his views of how the Vatican could help the process. Calling Mr. Putin's proposal a ''very ambitious approach,'' Dr. Navarro-Valls said that the Pope ''mainly listened, then gave some remarks.''

In 2000, analysts said President Putin's plan would be detrimental to the U.S., including reducing U.S. power in the world. According to a June 2000 edition of the Weekly Defense Monitor:

“Russia's long-term objective, as stated in the 1999 draft National Security Concept, is to change the balance of power in the world currently dominated by the United States. "If the EU and Russia were to get back together," said Paul Beaver, an expert at Jane's Missiles and Rockets, "it would bring the world back into a bipolar situation again."”

In February 2001, Putin presented a set of proposal which would change the balance of power in the world dominated by the United States to the NATO secretary general, Lord Robertson, calling on Europe and NATO to work with Russia on developing a common defense against missile attacks.”

Contrary to appearances during 2007 in missile defense shield discussions, President Putin has long wanted a missile defense shield in Europe – though not in Poland and the Czech Republic as suggested by the U.S. And, nearly a decade after his original suggestion on 6 June, 2000 on 6 April, 2008, hailed by President Bush as a “significant breakthrough”, President Putin's proposed joint missile defense system found its place in a strategic framework declaration in Sochi.

The way is now cleared for Russia and Europe to jointly participate in missile defense. The system will change the balance of power in the world away from the U.S. Rather than offering protection against “rogue states” feared by the U.S. administration, it may instead leave the the U.S. vulnerable to attack, including from Russia.

While the U.S. may be included in talks at this time, the military relationship being forged between Russia and Europe is the one that will ultimately strengthen and prevail – and it will not be to U.S. advantage.

With no objections to the concept of missile defense in Europe, Russia has repeatedly balked at the U.S. plan of placing interceptor missiles in Poland (a country with which it has a long history of enmity) together with placement of radar in the Czech Republic (a country it invaded and occupied from 1968 until the “Velvet Revolution” in 1989, the bloodless revolution that saw the overthrow of the communist government). Russia has repeatedly stated its national security is threatened by the plan while issuing threats of targets in Europe, i.e. Poland, should the plan go ahead.

President Putin has never been against joint missile defense in Europe, suggesting it himself to the Clinton administration and European leaders in 2000 and bringing up the issue again in 2001 and more recently in 2007 before the proposal was included in the strategic framework declaration. However, rather than resolving issues for the U.S, by protecting it against attack from so-called “rogue states”, the 2008 strategic framework declaration lays the framework for greater military co-operation between Russia and Europe, which strategic alignment would prove a far greater threat to the U.S. The bottom line is that Russia does not want a missile defense system in Poland or the Czech Republic, but actively wants it elsewhere in Europe, including Russia.

The 6 April, 2008 strategic framework declaration states:

“Missile Defense. The leaders expressed their interest in creating a system for responding to potential missile threats in which Russia and the United States and Europe will participate as equal partners.

Russia has made clear that it does not agree with the decision to establish sites in Poland and the Czech Republic and reiterated its proposed alternative. Yet, it appreciates the measures that the United States has proposed and declared that if agreed and implemented such measures will be important and useful in assuaging Russian concerns.

We agreed to intensify our dialogue after Sochi on issues concerning missile defense cooperation both bilaterally and multilaterally.”

President Bush said after the April 2008 meeting with President Putin in Sochi:

“One of the areas where we've agreed to work together is in missile defense. And obviously, as Vladimir mentioned, this an area where we've got more work to do to convince the Russian side that the system is not aimed at Russia. As the agreement mentioned, we agree today that the United States and Russia want to create a system for responding to potential missile threats, in which Russia and the United States and Europe will participate as equal partners.”

Following the meeting Stephen Hadley, National Security Advisor said at a press briefing aboard Air Force One:

“I thought it was very interesting, even going beyond the regional aspect, that Putin, of his own today -- President Putin -- raised the prospect of cooperation between the United States and Russia on global missile defense. This is something that he offered.

“And what we got today was a Russian agreement to the two points that we were seeking all along: one, that they would cooperate in the development of a system for regional defense in which Russia, the United States, and Europe would participate as equals, and second, a statement that while they did not agree to the two sites, did not accept them, nonetheless the transparency and confidence building measures we offered - if finally agreed and implemented - would assuage their concerns. So we got the agreement that we sought, and the only one we could get at leaders' level. “

The system of joint participation that is claimed the U.S. has been seeking all along yet is actually President Putin's proposal of Russian-EU-U.S. cooperation on missile defense made to the Clinton administration and EU leaders in 2000.

According to analysts in 2000 it was not in the U.S. best interests then, and it is surely even less so in 2008, in the light of a weakening U.S. and Britain and a strengthened EU and Russia, drawing ever closer to full integration and co-operation.

One of the reasons in getting together with Europe on missile defense, according to the 1999 draft National Security Concept, was Russia's wish to change the balance of power in which the United States was dominant.

“On the heels of President Clinton's visit to Europe, Russia's President Vladimir Putin traveled to Italy with a proposal to create a continent-wide missile defense system. The plan - clearly designed to counter the U.S. National Missile Defense (NMD) system - is finding many sympathetic ears among European leaders. NATO allies seemed to have embraced the Russian proposal as a possible way to diffuse tensions within the alliance stemming from European opposition to NMD....

President Putin's counterproposal comes at an opportune time both for Russia and Europe. Russia is equally opposed to NMD, so reaching out to the European Union (EU) countries will bolster the critics' strength. Moreover, Moscow senses a chance to regain its influence on the continent. The war in Chechnya has put a strain on EU-Russian relations, particularly after the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe reproached Russia for its conduct in Chechnya and Moscow withdrew from the Council in protest. Mutual opposition to NMD gives Moscow an opening to mend fences with EU countries. Lastly, Russia's long-term objective, as stated in the 1999 draft National Security Concept, is to change the balance of power in the world currently dominated by the United States. "If the EU and Russia were to get back together," said Paul Beaver, an expert at Jane's Missiles and Rockets, "it would bring the world back into a bipolar situation again."

“Europe's NMD Deliberations”, Weekly Defense Monitor, Volume 4, Issue #23, Center for Defense Information, Tomas Valasek, Senior Analyst, 8 June 2000

In June 2000, Worldnetdaily said:

“Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov urged defense ministers of CIS members "to join the European Union in a combined anti-missile system," according to the Voice of Russia World Service, the official broadcasting service of the Russian government.

Such a "combined" system would effectively separate the United States from its traditional European allies, and achieve one of Soviet Russia's primary goals -- the political and military isolation of the U.S....

Russian President Vladimir Putin succinctly defined his foreign policy during his visit to Italy earlier this month.

"Moscow's objective is cooperation and dialogue with a united Europe," Putin stated.

The divided, often quarreling, nations of Europe would be no match for the sprawling might of Russia, especially when Moscow's CIS partner states are counted in.

Intimidation also appears to be a factor in Moscow's approach to Europe. During his visit to Germany last week, Putin addressed a meeting of business and political leaders. In his speech, the Russian president stated that if the United States built an anti-missile system, "Russia would have to respond," and if European nations assisted the U.S. in such a program, "Europe would be the hardest hit," according to the Voice of Russia.

Moscow is also using commerce and natural resources to bind Western Europe to itself. Russia is in the process of opening up long-neglected trading links to Europe through Russia from Iran in the Middle East, and from China in the Far East, along what was once known as the "silk route."

An efficient land route through Russia to the commercial and natural resources of the Middle and Far East would constitute a powerful force drawing Europe into Moscow's orbit. Russia is also supplying an increasing amount of oil and gas to Western Europe, with the resulting increased dependence on Moscow.”

“Russia proposes defense shield with Europe. Urges neighboring states to join EU in 'combined anti-missile system'”, I. J. Toby Westerman, Worldnetdaily.com, June 21, 2000

Again, President Putin has long wanted a missile defense system in Europe, but not without Russian involvement and he has just not wanted it placed in Poland.

“The Poles say, not without a certain pride, that they are the only ones ever to occupy the Kremlin. That was in the early 17th century, almost 200 years before Napoleon and 300 before Hitler failed in their attempts to do so.

In Moscow not long ago, the national day celebration was switched from Nov. 7, commemorating the Bolshevik Revolution, to Nov. 4, when the Russians rid the Kremlin of the hated Poles.

Clearly, the present bad state of relations between Russia and Poland has plenty of historical precedents. Still, relations between the nations are as bad as they have been since the collapse of the Soviet bloc in 1989.”

“After Centuries of Enmity, Relations Between Poland and Russia Are as Bad as Ever”, New York Times, Richard Bernstein, 3 July, 2005

Moscow imposed an embargo on Polish meat from November 2005 to 2007, claiming it was for health reasons and that meat from third countries was being imported under the cover of Polish produce. Warsaw saw the ban as political. It was a major source of tension between the two countries under the previous conservative Polish government and Poland vetoed talks on a new Russia-EU partnership agreement after the existing one expired in December 2007. In 2007, Russia and the EU extended a Partnership and Cooperation agreement by a year, and according to Ria Novosti are hoping to reach a new deal by the end of 2008.

With the April 2008 election of Silvio Berlusconi as Italian Prime Minister for a third term, given that both he and Putin have favoured closer EU-Russia links in the past and the fact that Italy enjoys a great deal of influence in the EU, as Putin takes up office as Russian Prime Minister in May, Russia's integration into Europe could be speeded up.

Given the fact that Europe and Russia are moving closer in areas of military co-operation, the strategic framework declaration signed at Sochi is a means for them to be able to do so in the field of missile defense - with U.S approval. U.S. involvement in missile defense in Europe is destined to be temporary, if any, but Russia's alignment with Europe will grow as Russia takes its place in Europe with a strong military presence and leadership.