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The days of Mullahs regime in Iran are numbered

Shahriar Kia - 7/27/2009

After announcing the result of the sham elections, the popular uprisings in Iran is escalating day after day. Before the election in Iran no one, especially the western governments could speculate such a blazing fire under the ashes, instead, they all drew a picture of a stable and strong government. But, deep schism at high ranks of religious dictatorship and the popular uprising clearly proved the Mullahs regime is in a deadlock and the days of mullahs in Iran are numbered.

Khamenei, the supreme leader, by a miscalculation, permitted a few of his internal opposition to take part in the presidential election for propaganda purposes. Some in the west believed that Kamenei could tolerate his internal opposition to win the election, but he had to massively hoodwink the public to bring Ahmadinejad out of the ballot boxes. He played the same game four years ago to impose Ahmadinejad as the president. However, as a result of three decades of brutal repression of basic freedoms and social and economic pressures, people poured to the streets. The expressed motto of demonstrators and demands are more radical and much higher than what the defeated candidates say. Even the regime has confessed several times that more than 60 percent of those who demonstrate did not participate in the election.

The latest development was the Friday July 17th uprising .More than a million people protested against the regime in Tehran and showed the uprising is not going wind down. Comparing with July 9th demonstration, more people participated in street protests in July 17th. In order to prevent the formation of a demonstration and gathering, the repressive forces brutally attacked people injuring them and used tear gas. But, facing the angry crowd deployment of all the vicious methods failed and demonstrators rapidly took over the central streets of Tehran. The demonstration continued throughout Rafsanjani's performance at the Friday Prayer. Rafsanjani who is considered to have higher religious rank than Khameneie anxiously invited all the factions within the ruling regime to unity. He also said “we are in a bitter era which no body wished for it and now we all have lost”.

The current situation in Iran must be studied in tow conspectus:

1. Internal situation of the regime

During the recent election and especially during the televised debates of the candidates a great and deep split surfaced at the top of ruling hierarchy .With unbelievable fraud, Khamenei brought Ahmadinejad out of ballet boxes and eliminated all other opponents in different manners. All of this put the legitimacy of the election and the victory of Ahmadinejad under question . On the other hand, Khamenei tried to contain the opponents by arresting a number of government officials from the rival faction which considering the deepening rift, it was not effective . The regime has passed an irreversible point.

Now, one could conclude that Khamenei is left with no option to close the split at the top, nor he is capable to silence the protests. Because, neither he has the power to do away with his rivals within the regime nor he could reach a compromise with them. On the other hand, opponents of Khamenei would not accept anything but resignation of Ahmadinejad. To oust Ahmadinejad from his position is a red line for Khamenei, since stepping back from presidency of Ahmadinejad will result a set back from “Velaiateh faghih”( Islamic juries Purdue ) ,in this case he will deny the basis of his own rule.

2. Situation after the uprising

The outcome of the popular uprising which aims Khamenei and Ahmadinejad has put the clerical rule on the verge of collapse. Even though the uprising started to protest the results of the election but quickly after a day the slogans turned against the entirety of the mullahs' regime. Now there is a powerful and not preventable movement to overthrow the regime. Iranian people have even turned the nights as a field to continue their struggle for the downfall of the regime by going to the rooftops and chanting “death to dictator”.

It is obvious that Khamenei will not give up oppression, but there are two reasons that the mullahs are not able to suppress and crackdown the protest to continue their rule: First, the deep schism among the highest ranks of this regime which has begun after Khomeini's death. Second, people are not scared any more to continue their protests against this regime. Mullahs are neither able to close the rift nor able to stop peoples uprisings. These two factors have evolved the situation to an irreversible point. The regime is in its weakest point and has no way out of the escalating crisis engulfed in. it has no choice other than downfall.