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President Obama Has A Problem—And Its Not Health Care Reform

Trevor Albertson, PhD - 10/13/2009

The problems facing NATO and its efforts at creating a stable situation in Afghanistan are growing. Perhaps the greatest challenge is currently unfolding in Washington. President Obama must decide what to do with the recommendation from NATO’s senior military commander in the war-torn nation, U.S. Army General Stanley McChrystal. General McChrystal has recommended President Obama increase American troop levels and continue the fight in Afghanistan. While on the surface this appears to be a fairly simple decision, it is in fact fraught with lasting implications for the future stability of Afghanistan and, more importantly, NATO itself.

Many of America’s NATO allies have made a significant commitment of troops to the fight in Afghanistan and are becoming increasingly impatient with the progress being made there. They are also becoming impatient with the rapidly rising death-toll that has resulted in vocal opposition to current policy by domestic political groups. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is under particular pressure from the German public and an opposition party to end her country’s involvement in the Afghan mission. At the same time, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has publicly expressed pessimism about the prospects for success in Afghanistan, and an ultimate desire to withdraw troops when approved by NATO. Faltering German and Italian confidence in the once popular mission is a clear indication that the steadfast allied support for operations there is coming to an end. This much has been made clear to the Americans.

Therein lies President Obama’s dilemma. Does the new president risk alienating America’s longtime NATO allies by accepting General McChrystal’s recommendation to escalate operations in Afghanistan, or does he heed the call of the Italians, Germans, and others to end NATO’s involvement in Afghanistan?

The first option, following through on General McChrystal’s recommendations, means a continuation of the American and NATO mission in Afghanistan. The Europeans and Canadians will not immediately object to this action. Unfortunately, despite the short-term success of recent efforts in Iraq, taking General McChrystal’s recommendation is no guarantee of success in Afghanistan. It is, however, guaranteed to strain relations among the member states and cast doubt on the validity of any possible future missions in which NATO might engage. The allies are clearly looking for a way out, but are unlikely to leave of their own accord and without the consent of the Americans.

Option number two, spurning General McChrystal’s recommendation and perhaps beginning a slow but steady withdrawal from Afghanistan would be a very unpopular decision with American voters. As a de facto recognition of the European allies’ concerns, it would be a concrete step toward keeping NATO strong and unified, which is, in the long-term, more central to American interests. This course would also help to reduce American defense spending, another serious problem facing the White House.

By all indications, President Obama has accepted General McChrystal’s recommendation and the U.S. military is drawing up plans to take action for a troop increase. Undoubtedly, this will appease the domestic desire for continued action in Afghanistan. It will also weaken the already strained NATO alliance and further weaken American influence with its European allies.

To avoid this conundrum, President Obama would have been well advised to have asked for a similar recommendation on a course of action in Afghanistan from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. While he may have already received such a recommendation privately, the lack of a transparent and public recommendation has deprived him and the American people of a critically important opportunity, namely the initiation of a serious discussion about American goals in Afghanistan.

President Obama must consider that NATO has remained the cornerstone of international security over the last 60 years, and without it, or at the very least a strong and willing NATO alliance, there is no guarantee that a financially-troubled and internationally-challenged America will be able to fill the gap alone. The enduring strength of a reliable NATO alliance should be far more important to Obama than an ephemeral advance in Afghanistan. It would be wise for President Obama to remember that General McChrystal’s recommendation is just that, a recommendation. President Obama must be reminded that it falls to civilians, not generals in the field, to make policy.

This is a defining moment for President Obama and will impact his prospects for reelection in 2012. It will also greatly influence what his legacy as president will be once he leaves office, as this decision may also determine the course of future regional security in both Europe and central Asia. Unfortunately, it appears this warning is too late. While he has done a great deal to improve American foreign policy and the country’s image abroad, in the future President Obama should rely on the breadth of his cabinet and advisors and not allow himself to pigeon-holed into a decision by a narrow segment of his leadership team.