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China's Strategic Advantages

Monotapash Mukherjee - 10/20/2009

After Pakistan got entangled in its war against Taliban and US pressure increased, China has thrown its full weight against India. Besides it is fully advantageous on all fronts. It is harping on the Arunachal theme. It has unleashed a full scale psychological war against India.

Over the last decade China’s relationship with Taiwan has improved vastly with the Kuomintang govt. led by Ma Ying Jao. Thus China’s military anxiety has decreased regarding Taiwan and it has begun to open new fronts against India.

North Korea’s nuclear blackmail of the US and its allies in the region has worked to China’s advantage. One of the reasons of Obama’s compromising attitude towards China is its influence on North Korea to dissuade it from nuclear brinkmanship.

China and the US are called economic Siamese twins and the recent downturn in world economy, specially the US economic disaster forced the Obama administration to embrace China even closer. The US sought the Chinese help to bail out the US economy.

Recent US anxiety over Myanmar’s nuclear ambitions also pushed the US towards China. Because of the North Korean and Pakistani connection the US felt once again the necessity of China.

The Democrat vision of the future is radically different from that of the Neo-Cons. The Republicans adopted a confrontationist path against China and wanted to project India as a counterweight. But the Democrats hold no great place for India. Instead they are worried about India’s nuclear ambitions and wants India to sign the CTBT. Besides it is not very supportive of the Nuke deal. Thus China finds India cornered by the new US administration and it wants to squeeze it.

Again the nearer India is drifting towards the US; the further it is going from Russia. Russia is worried about Indo-US proximity. It is also anxious over losing the Indian defense market to Israel and the US. So it is dilly-dallying to supply the Aircraft carrier Gorshkov as well as the N- submarine. Hence China is amused to find Indo-Russian relationship souring and India longing for high-tech defense hardware which no one but Russia supplies.

The unexpected collapse of the arch of democracy consisting of the US, Japan, Australia, and India came as a big relief for China. It was extremely worried about the maritime collaboration among these countries which it felt was directed to contain its expanding naval prowess and presence. This emboldened China to provoke India.

A great change is taking place in Japan. After more than five decades of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party’s rule, Democratic Party of Japan has come to power. The LDP was the champion of the Japan-US alliance. But the Democratic Party holds an altogether different world view. The Democratic Party’s manifesto pledges to reexamine the role of the US military in the security of the Asia-Pacific region and the significance of the US bases in Japan. Its leaders are also advocating improved ties with the former adversaries notably China and South Korea. Thus the new Japan will be much more friendly and co-operative for China.

Again India’s Pak headache has not diminished. Even before any hope of the Mumbai attackers being punished India is reeling under fear of similar types of attacks. Furthermore, the US is getting ready to give a substantial military help- to Pakistan. The news of Pakistan developing several types of missiles and the drones being produced by the PAF with technological help from Italy has unnerved India. China wants to utilize this strategic helplessness of India.

Again its Sri Lanka experiment of securing an order for building a port at Hambantota in exchange of its support for the destruction of the LTTE has been extremely successful. Further more Pak-Sri Lanka military co-operation is growing. Bangladesh and Myanmar has welcomed China. Nepal Maoists have created strategic opportunity for China.

Thus China feels time is ripe to punish India and resist it before it excels China in technological supremacy with the US and European help. The near-success of the Chandrayaan mission has raised the Chinese heckles.





CHINA’S N-GAME SOUNDS DEATH-KNELL FOR THE US EMPIRE

China is reaping dividends of its clandestine, carefully calculated and highly conspiratory N-game, which is bringing the US Empire apart like a nuclear chain reaction. The patent holders of yellow revolution, orange revolution, pre-emption, precision strikes and regime change are feeling the heat. Despite much-hyped CTBT or NPT, China, by virtue of its veto power, has succeeded in its game. The US image had already taken a severe beating post North Korea onwards. The financial tsunami has confirmed the death-certificate for the US Empire.

First of all, Pakistan proved to be a double strategic benefit master card for China. Sensing opportunity during the Soviet Afghan war, China began to supply nuclear know how and materials to Pakistan when the US needed it to defeat the Soviets. China’s main aim was to create a psychological, military and financial black hole for India. But gradually it began to utilize Pakistan for its anti-US agenda. China supplied the banned techs to Libya, Iran and North Korea via AQ Khan’s network. Though Libya was forced to renounce the path, Iran & North Korea trod the banned path.



Pakistan’s N- technology put the US in a fix. It could not leave the reluctant strategic ally so easily. Furthermore there was the danger of the Al Qaeda terrorists securing the forbidden weapons. Thus knowing fully well about the existence of the hardcore terrorists, the flourishing N-activity, the AQ Khan nuclear black-market, etc the US could do nothing. It went on to coax the double-faced Pakistani rulers into getting rid of the Afghanistan quagmire and Al Qaeda. Pakistan swallowed the dollars but did little. Yet the US has tripled the civilian assistance to Pakistan. So Pakistan has proved to be an acid test for the US. To keep its Muslim friendly image, it must maintain good relations with the sole nuclear Islamic country. Further more, it has to save face in the Afghan war which it is losing. Again the N- word is haunting the US. Thus the helpless US is stuck in the Pak soil.

The North Korea nuclear crisis has destroyed the US image as an invincible supernatural military force. Ably supported by Chinese nuclear technology via Pakistan, North Korea played superb cat and mouse game with the US .The US failed to halt its nuclear & missile activities.

The repercussions were severe. Japan and South Korea understood the limitations of the US and warned it not to launch any military strikes against North Korea. South Korea sought the path to reconciliation with the North. Japan’s ruling party began to question the logic of US presence on the Japanese soil. The ruling party came after four decades of conservative rule. So the limitation of the US might as well as its missile defense system being clear to both South Korea and Japan, they are on the path to reconciliation.

Again, Iran’s missile launches and hyper activities regarding the nuclear have raised doubts about the US ability in the minds of Israel and Saudi Arabia. The US attempts to solve the west Asia crisis have faced a stiff opposition from Israel.

The Pak-China-N. Korea trio’s effort to nuclearise Myanmar has set alarm bells in the Pentagon. Deviating from its traditional policy of non-engagement and sanctions, the US is taking of engagement and reconciliation with Myanmar.

Contrary of all these, the steadfast ally of the US, Taiwan has followed a peaceful path with the Nuclear China.

All these point to the fact that the US is now a spent force. The myth of the invincible US is now broken. It is already defeated in Iraq and Afghanistan. Through appeasement and money laundering it is trying to save its face. At the same time all the strategic outposts of the US in Asia are now realizing that N-word which attracted them towards the US has destroyed their own security and the nuclear US can do nothing. It is better to decide their own destiny. Besides, China is presenting itself as an economic super power too. So China has succeeded in its march to be a superpower. It has already set time bombs for the US Empire to collapse. Therefore in the coming days, it will not be surprising if the US is drawn towards reconciliatory path with China. Beware India!


How to Deter China?

Waging military confrontation against India will not be easy for China. Instead they will intensify psycho-warfare against India. So India will have to identify the psycho-tools which can be used against China. Weapon systems, too, should be acquired with an eye on their psycho-effects Media management should be effective. The effect should be such that it can dissuade both China & Pakistan.

India must have to acquire at least 5000KM SLBMs & Nuclear submarines on an urgent basis. For this India must not rely only on indigenous efforts. India should buy, at least, for now, readymade SLBMs & N-Subs from any country. I think, with sufficient incentive, a secret pact with France or Russia is possible. India should focus on range and make it seen that it has the contingency plan ready to annihilate any Chinese City.

Though India is developing its own two-tier BMD, the PAC III & the Israeli Arrow can act as psychological deterrents. To avoid the Israel –US conflict in this regard, India can buy both the systems simultaneously.

India, with its option keeping open for using against China, should ask the US for a handful of B2 bombers. Even a small number of the stealth bat-like bombers which can cover 10,000 KM at a stretch, can unnerve the mighty northern neighbor.

India must display its anti-satellite ability by destroying any of its own satellites and this can be far better if India can display its laser weapon. This can have a far more grave psycho impact than China’s hard strike.

India must perfect its star-war program. It is for sure that in case of a future Indo-China conflict, China must unleash anti-satellite warfare against India. So India must be prepared for the future SPACE PEARL HARBOR.

Once the famous scientist, Dr. Mani Bhowmik advised the then home Minister to utilize India’s software prowess for its homeland security. But it is useful not only for internal security but also for external defense. So India, following the US Presidents Barrack Obama’s footsteps should raise a CYBER COMMAND which not only will defend important govt. websites but also will go on the offensive. So China, which hacks important Indian websites to know about India’s defense acquisitions, space preparations, India’s relationship with Taiwan, India’s views on Tibet, etc will get a taste of its own medicine and a think twice before launching similar attacks.

India must announce the creation of the world’s first exclusive THERMONUCLEAR COMMAND and that too after full preparation.

India should hand over the ISRO and the Atomic Energy Commission to the military. This will send a strong and subtle message to China and Pakistan.

The Canada –US anti-missile and anti-satellite centre NORAD should be replicated in India at a secure Himalayan region. The very news of its existence will unnerve Pakistan and China.

India must replenish its Phalcon AWACS arsenal. The Phalcon can detect the aircraft and the cruise missile. The Green Pine radars can detect the ballistic missiles. So India must ramp up its AWACS and anti-missile radars.

I wonder why India, despite having Israel as its defense supplier, does not make Predator-like drones or unmanned combat aerial vehicles. The drones can have extensive psycho-impact on the adversary.

On the border, Shourya missile, a derivative from the SLBM, K-15, should be deployed. Being canisterised, it can be launched from the underground and it can evade the reconnaissance satellites. This satellite-evasion power, if the range is substantially increased, will deter China.

The likely test of a hypersonic Brahmos with an extended range can unnerve China. Furthermore its air force version can be devastating.

India must seek the US help in building satellite-guided weapons like JDAMs and JSOWs. Being all weather weapons, India will be placed on a more advantageous position than China with their introduction.

India should give up the No First Use nuclear policy. This will relieve India from the self-imposed shackles which put India at disadvantage against Pakistan and China.

But the best deterrence can be obtained from the diplomatic front. Any treaty akin to the Indo-Soviet treaty with Russia and India’s active efforts to mitigate the US-Russian rivalry regarding missile defense can work wonders for India. The more Russia drifts from China, the more insecure China will feel at the diplomatic front. So any future guarantee against Chinese aggression by Russia will benefit India.


HAND OVER ISRO TO THE MILITARY

With the astounding success of the Chandrayaan in the in the discovery of water on the moon, the ISRO has rightfully grabbed the attention of the world. In fact, it can be said to be the best institution of India, which despite worldwide sanctions and tech denial, has conquered all adversities. But here too, like all the spheres of life, due to the lack of strategic culture, ISRO has remained merely a civilian tool and this also at a time when India is facing worst ever strategic threats from all corners including the rise of nuclear Iran, Myanmar, and the existing N-threats like China and Pakistan.

ISRO failed to detect the existence of the massive under mountain Chinese N-sub base in the Hainan island which can house twenty N-subs and anti-satellite weapons. This was detected by western satellites. Again Pakistan’s flourishing nuclear infrastructure evaded the Indian satellites. Two nuclear Plutonium facilities and underground nuclear missile storage sites were also uncovered by western satellites. The Plutonium facilities indicated Pak’s policy shift to produce lighter, smaller and smarter Plutonium warheads rather than uranium warheads. India remained blind to this development. Furthermore, Myanmar’s reported nuclear facilities in the mountainous regions also remained hidden from India.

All these point to the gaping hole of the Indian space program in the matter of the military.

Again when India tested the Block II version of the Brahmos for the first time, it failed to home in on the chosen target. It was suspected that perhaps willfully the US had shut the GPS. This also highlights the helplessness of India in the absence of its own GPS version.

India is building its own missile defense capabilities. It is planning to induct exo-spheric and endo-spheric anti-missile systems. It is also trying to enhance its nuclear command and control structure. But all these are futile in the absence of a dedicated aero-space command. It does not have a constellation of military satellites.

India has only recently woken up to the need for some military satellites but the efforts and still inadequate. China has already shown to the world its anti-satellite ability in 2007 by destroying one of its ageing weather satellites. So in the event of war, China must jeopardize the Indian satellite network. Furthermore, China was busy shopping satellite jammers. Anti-satellite researches are in full swing in China. Killer sats, parasite sats and laser weapons are also being developed. Set against the back drop of all these, the Indian space program is focused excessively on the civilian, not on the military.

So to rise up to any exigency, India must take up following measures,

First of all ISRO should be handed over to the military. Like the PLA, which controls the Chinese space program, the ISRO under proper guidance of the military will prepare an effective blue print for the military.

Secondly a dedicated aero-space command should immediately be setup. The US help can be sought in this regard. The US’ success of its aerospace warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan has already been researched by the Indian military.

Thirdly, satellite guided weapons like JDAMs and JSOWs should be our aim.

Fourthly, NORAD should be replicated in India to monitor enemy satellites and missiles.

Fifthly, the Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System, touted to be an alternative to the US GPS, should be made effective with the increase of the number of satellites.

Sixthly, the Russian GLONASS and the US GPS should militarily be accessed through effective agreements with both the countries.

Seventhly, the Indo-Israeli military space collaboration should be taken to a new high. The Israeli radar expertise should be effectively utilized.

Lastly, India must enhance and display its anti sat capabilities. China’s display of its space war weapons on the 60th anniversary of its communist existence should serve as a clarion call to India.


Obama Cancels Missile Defense Plan—India Set to Gain

It’s a fantastic development! Obama has cancelled Bush- proposed European missile defense plan which would build a radar system in the Czech Republic and base interceptor missiles in Poland. Based on intelligence estimates, as the US said, the threat to the US and its allies is not from Iranian longer range missiles which are yet to be developed, but from medium and shorter range missiles. Therefore the US has decided to rely on ship based mobile interceptors, at least initially. The scrapping of the European missile defense plan which Russia viewed as a threat to its landmass has been welcomed by the Russian President and Russia too has cancelled its anti-US missile project. The NATO Secretary General has called for a greater strategic partnership with Russia and also has called upon Russia to join the NATO missile defense project. Thus the US Russia relationship has entered into a new era and I am certain the US will seek a greater Russian role in major world problems---the North Korean nuclear crisis which the US has failed to solve, the Iran nuclear crisis which remains a thorn in the US throat and the Afghanistan quagmire which, as the experts says, might repeat the Soviet plight for the US. So a greater US Russia participation as well as a greater reconciliation between the erstwhile rivals is going to herald a new era.

But the question is -----wherein lies the Indian opportunity?

India, at least during the last one year, has been witnessing an aggressive China. Coupled with Pakistan, China is all out to harm India. Again due to the growing Indo-US proximity, Russia began to view India with suspicion,. Russia began to drift away towards China. Russia focused on building the SCO as a counter to NATO and held massive military exercises with China. Russia- China friendship touched a new high.

But with the Russia-US friendship entering into a new era, India is set to gain. India has a cordial relationship with both the countries, it maintains military relationship with both of them. So any military assistance from any of them will not be viewed with suspicion by the other.

Considering all types of N-capable missile threats from China & Pakistan, the anti-missile system or missile defense system is a subject which India cannot overlook. India is building its own missile defense system. But if Russia joins the US missile defense network, India can join the network which it cannot join now because of angering Russia. So if Russia joins the network, the psychological and diplomatic fallout for China will be damaging and India will be a partner to the most efficient technologies in this regard.

Furthermore, if Russia joins the US in dissuading Iran from going nuclear, India will find a common ground for maneuver and the Indo- Iran relation will improve and alienate China from diplomatic and military grounds with Iran. India then perhaps will secure oil and gas from Iran without the US dissent.

Again in Afghanistan, India faces increasing pressure from Pakistan. The US is also skeptical about India’s role there. Thus if Russia joins the American effort to eliminate Taliban and Al Qaeda and stabilize Afghanistan, India will have a stronger hand to deal with Pakistan.

Again North Korea perhaps will not be able to dance to the Chinese tune if Russia joins the US side.

So a strong Russia- US relationship will diminish the Chinese influence world over and create a favorable strategic space for India.

So let us pray and even mediate to ensure that Russia –US relationship reaches a new high. The sooner, the better.