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Iran Accused of Illicit Nuclear Activity

Angelique van Engelen - 4/13/2005

Iran looks more and more set to become another Iraq. In the current circumstances it takes about three credible sources to say it is doing something suspicious and the international news headlines will be flushed with reports indicating Iran to appear in serious breach of the Non Proliferation Treaty it is a signatory to. The validity is unquestionable- there's very likely some activity going on in Iran's nuclear facilities which officially are temporarily closed- yet what exactly is almost equally obscure as the many similar situations from pre-war Iraq.

The fact that we still almost daily can read reports in newspapers on whether the Iraqis might have transported their deadly weapons elsewhere, whether they perhaps sold them on the black market, whether the Russians have helped transport them, whether they are in Syria, indicate just how the nuclear issue is still offering potential news value. It feels as if the issue hasn't been resolved somehow. And now the apparent unresolved Iraqi nuclear issue is rich feeding ground for speculation as to what really is happening in Iran. The US government can't exactly be credited with having gained an awful lot of experience in dealing with such precarious situations.

That's why recent developments in Iran are almost by nature bound to resemble pre-war Iraq, where reports of the authorities' supposed obstructions toward international inspectors often heightened tensions with the US and on occasion led to strikes, but not a lot else until the new invasion.

However, Iran is quite different. The urgency of the situation is more pronounced because it has what some deem to be near-operational facilities to complete the cycle of fuel. The inspections in Iraq never yielded any of such exciting developments. Another difference is that the US is not directly involved, but is very likely to be so by the time a solution is agreed to. The way in which this will likely be achieved will be vastly different than the US way of dealing with Iraq.

The news of the International Atomic Energy Agency's plan to start collating an inventory of what the country has managed to manufacture should be seen in this light. Officials are refusing any comment on the allegations that Iran is apparently messing around with the stuff quite actively made by 'an international intelligence agency' -who else but the CIA-, but it did tell Reuters that it is making an inventory of processed uranium in Iran. If it turns out that a significant portion of the material is missing -as diplomats are claiming- the interpretation that the authorities have shipped it to another location is going to be frighteningly plausible. Two IEAI officials have confirmed they fear this is the case, as well as one US official.

Yet, as so often in pre-war Iraq's nuclear status- the world is told this is no reason for instant panic, because the amount that might be missing is judged too small to produce any dangerous bomb. Also, experts in the know say that the transfer of any sizeable amounts of uranium would have hardly been possible. Apparently the monitoring cameras at the disputed factory, based in Isfahan, are not 100% fool proof however and issues like this are keeping the international experts on tenterhooks, also because the activity would mean that Iranians are breaching their promise to the EU to hold off manufacturing. That would be quite serious, not least because it would show just how intent Iranians are on sticking to their plans. Which raises the question of what makes Iran so willing to risk being further isolated by the international world.

Comments by the Iranian U.N. Ambassador Javad Zarif fit in the scenario that Iran is quite intent on speeding its program up considerably for no apparent reason whatsoever. He told the Washington Post last month that Iran is seeking to aggressively expand its nuclear energy program as soon as it reaches some conclusion with the European negotiators. This is because it fears the United States could persuade suppliers such as Russia, China and Ukraine to stop shipping nuclear components to Iran. This apparently also was the reason why the Iranian authorities were not quite as forthcoming with information about the nuclear plant in Natanz a few years hence and which stirred international furore.

"You don't expect Iran to sit still. We don't have any confidence that two years down the road, the pressure by the United States may or may not work on our suppliers. We have to create a source of self-sufficiency, which will include a fuel cycle program," according to Zarif. The US has been less enthusiastic about Russia's help to Iran, but it hasn't been too much of a hot issue, certainly not so much so that Russia might have been persuaded to change its stance.

Meanwhile, the Russians said Monday they are planning on supplying Iran with uranium they have stored in Siberia in about six months' time. Iranian officials say that its production of enriched uranium, under IAEA supervision is at 5 percent. To create weapons, this would have to be at least 90%. The Russian 'yellow cake' material helps this process along. IAEA officials have however been quoted as saying the program is way further advanced than it previously had thought. But their estimates vary wildly with those of others. For instance the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center says that the spent fuel from the Russian built Bushehr facility alone would be capable of producing 50 to 75 bombs.

The Iranians later this month will have talks again with the Europeans who have intercepted Iran's referral to the United Nations and are discussing an agenda which includes an Iranian proposal to allow it its program to create its much cited 6,000 megawatt worth of energy. One official said that the Iranians are hoping the EU lifts its sanctions against Iran. "Then we would be ready to sign the Additional Protocol," the French newspaper Le Monde quoted this high ranking Iranian as saying.

Even though the Iranians maintain they are only using the nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, its population is pretty much expecting a US strike and the way it has set up its program is entirely defensively. It has dug underground tunnels to some of its facilities in case either Israel or the US attacks and has admitted that much publicly after its Natanz facility was discovered.

Whether Iranians are right in expecting an attack is a question the US officially won't even answer. Perhaps the Israeli's think differently. It is frequently being flown over by unmanned Hezbollah drones, something it will feel uncomfortable with to say the least. The repeated calls for the destruction of Israel, that leaders in Iran have made in past decades and in recent speeches however partially inspire the fear that is so real in this country that the Israelis might attack its nuclear facilities much the same way it bombed the only Iraqi nuclear plant in Osirak in 1981. This is also believed to Iran's reason for spreading its program over several facilities throughout the country.

Iran is arming its military to the teeth. It has reworked its Shahab-3 ballistic missile so it can carry more sophisticated bombs, weapons experts say. This weapon can reach Israel and the US troops that encircle Iran quite easily. It was derived from the 1,300-1,500 kilometer range North Korean No Dong missile a few years ago and is capable of carrying a 1,000-760 kilogram warhead. At the moment pictures are circulating over the internet of its most feared 'black box' upgrade. According to a report in the Asian Wall Street Journal, US experts believe the black box is almost certainly a nuclear warhead.

Ironically, the Iranian risk assessment leads to different risks because any hiding of intelligence data on locations, defenses around them, and equipment out of fear of Israeli strikes creates exactly the kind of intransparency and uncertainty that led to the US intervention in Iraq.

However, US officials won't be wanting to make the same mistake twice and last month's damning report of US intelligence on WMD threats ordered by the White House, included a lengthy classified section which people say detailed serious gaps in US knowledge of Iran's programs.