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The Rising Sun

Trevor Albertson, Ph.D. - 12/16/2009

The seemingly parental relationship the American government and the Government of Japan (GOJ) have developed and maintained in the years since the end of World War II is undergoing dramatic alteration. The GOJ believes its place and role in the 21st century international community is drastically different from that which it has occupied since September 1945. Under the new leadership of Prime Minister Hatoyama, the Japanese are rebelling against American leadership and what many in the GOJ regard as American domination. The GOJ intends to set its own course in international affairs and these actions are being read by many senior American policy-makers as a rebellion against one of the strongest alliances of the 20th and early 21st centuries. Contrary to the oft-cited argument that national party politics are driving the recent souring of American-Japanese relations, it is clear there are immediate philosophical and pragmatic international concerns also influencing Japanese action.

The recent decision by the GOJ to reveal the terms of a secret pact it held with the United States concerning the passage of nuclear weapons through Japan highlights the growing rift between the formerly inseparable friends—and former enemies. More importantly, what the developing row between the two states indicates is the quickly disintegrating trust the GOJ places in American promises of mutual defense—and most importantly, American global power and dominance.

The issues underlying the GOJ’s shift in its dealings with the Americans are as much internal as they are external. For roughly sixty years the GOJ has acceded to American dominance and leadership in foreign affairs and military strategy. As the Japanese people’s personal memory of World War II fades, so does their national reasoning for abiding by the desires of the Americans. As a new generation of Japanese take the reins of political and cultural leadership, Japan’s conception of itself at home and abroad has also shifted. The new generation sees a time for Japan to play a more forceful and influential role in world affairs that is befitting their economic prowess. This is a dramatic shift in the collective philosophical outlook that the Japanese people have generally held since the end of World War II.

There is also a Japanese desire to redefine their role and position in the international community and in East Asia. By all appearances, the GOJ plans to deliver on those desires. In practical terms this shift will likely take shape in the form of a more active and proactive role for the Japanese military, more assertive participation by the Japanese in international bodies such as the United Nations, and a more aggressive fiscal policy with regard to the United States. In fairness however, the Japanese and their government may as much seek a shift in their economic relationship with the United States as a result of a desire to chart their own economic future as it is the result of concern over declining American economic clout.

Perhaps the most significant external influence motivating these changes is the rise of Chinese power, both in the region and around the world. Japan, which has previously and unsuccessfully attempted to challenge Chinese power, is well aware of the sea-change occurring on the international stage. Unable to challenge Chinese power and aware of declining American power, the Japanese are beginning to distance themselves from the United States. It is likely the Japanese will slowly find common ground and interest with their larger, more powerful neighbor to the west, China. Chief among these items of common interest has been the GOJ’s resistance to American desires and the GOJ’s efforts to push American bases to other locations. These actions dovetail with Chinese interests vis-à-vis the Americans and also serve to decrease the relative power of the Americans in the region.

The GOJ and the Americans should be cautious, however. The Japanese-American alliance has been a cornerstone of regional and international security in the years since the end of World War II. It has also been a strong countermeasure to further nuclearization of East Asia through its provision of mutual security and defense, which undoubtedly includes American assurances of defense in the event of such an attack upon Japan by an aggressive power. Without a strong American presence and GOJ faith in American assurances it will be only a matter of time before the GOJ finds it necessary to increase defense spending, behave aggressively with regard to matters of security, and generally destabilize the already strained security situation in East Asia. It may be impossible, however, for the United States to convince its “Rising Son” to the contrary.