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Natrual Resources of Central Asia and The New Great Game

Nasir Shah - 4/1/2010

The Central Asian region consist of five sovereign states i.e. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and also consider Azerbaijan is a part of Caucasus. Russia is located in the North of Central Asia, China in the East, Turkey in the West and Afghanistan and Iran are in the South. Soon after independence of the Central Asian countries started to establish good relations with neighboring countries. This region is abundant in natural resources. Unfortunately, the Central Asian countries are landlocked.

There are two main entry points in the region; Azerbaijan from the West and Kazakhstan from the East. With the emergence of the Central Asian countries the New Great Game was started. The game has been playing among the regional and extra-regional players. China and Russia have been continuously trying to maintain their influence in the region. The New Great Game in Central Asia also refers to describe the geopolitics of pipelines. The great powers have invested to establish the pipelines that would function under their control and desire.

The republics of Central Asia share a common strategic environment. Their foreign policy based on multilateralism. Also, there are no perspectives for the establishment of new bloc or new regional alliance.

Profiles of Central Asian Republics (CARs):

Analysis about Azerbaijan: Azerbaijan is emerging as an important exporter of oil and gas. Due to geographical location of Azerbaijan is providing transport corridor between Europe and Central Asia. Azerbaijan is on 21st in world ranking in oil production. Azerbaijan also shares its border with Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland sea. In current scenario, the New Great Game is playing over the Caspian Sea. Azerbaijan is very important country for Europe because European countries may access to Caspian Sea via Azerbaijan. The only passage to enter Central Asia by Western countries is Azerbaijan in the west of the region. This is way Azerbaijan has got a gateway location of Central Asia.

Production Proved reserves
Petroleum 842.08
(Thousands Barrels per day) 7
(Billion Barrels)
Gas 241
(Billion Cubic Feet) 30,000
(Billion Cubic Feet)

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration

Analysis about Kazakhstan: Kazakhstan is very important country of Central Asia. Kazakhstan has increased its capacity of oil and gas production since last decade. It has more viable option to export its oil and gas than other countries of the Central Asia. It also has an option to export oil and gas to the West across Caspian Sea via Azerbaijan. Another option is newly constructed, export to East towards China. China is one of the largest oil and gas consumer market of the world. Kazakhstan is able to access direct market in China is more viable option than others. However, Kazakhstan is standing on position of 19th in the world ranking in oil production. Kazakhstan has more potential for foreign oil companies to invest in its oil and gas sectors. It contains Central Asia’s largest recoverable coal reserves. It also has the second largest uranium reserves and in top ten ranking for coal, iron and gold in the world.

Production Proved reserves
Petroleum 1,360.42
(Thousands Barrels per day) 30
(Billion Barrels)
Gas 906
(Billion Cubic Feet) 65,000
(Billion Cubic Feet)

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration

Analysis about Tajikistan: Tajikistan is a landlocked country. Afghanistan is located in the South of it, Uzbekistan in the West, Kyrgyzstan in the North and People Republic of China in the East. Tajikistan is poor country however it is growing its economy steadily. The primary sources of income of Tajikistan are production of aluminum and cotton and remittance from migrant workers. Tajikistan has great hydropower potential, and has focused on attracting investment for projects for internal use and electricity exports. Pakistan has showed interest to import electricity from Tajikistan to compete its shortage of electricity. Besides these, illegal smuggling of drugs is one of the major unofficial sources of income of Tajikistan. Tajikistan has direct access to South Asia by Afghanistan. Tajikistan has close trading ties with Afghanistan.

Analysis about Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan is a double landlocked country in Central Asia. It shares border with Kazakhstan in the West, Kyrgyzstan in the North, Tajikistan in the East and Afghanistan and Turkmenistan in the South. Uzbekistan is abundant in production of cotton, gold, uranium and natural gas. The economic policies of Uzbekistan have repelled foreign investment. Despite of this, natural gas reserves of Uzbekistan large in amount made it very attractive country for the Western countries.

Production Proved reserves
Petroleum 99.68
(Thousands Barrels per day) 0.594
(Billion Barrels)
Gas 2216
(Billion Cubic Feet) 66,200
(Billion Cubic Feet)

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration

Analysis about Kyrgyzstan: Kyrgyzstan is a landlocked country of Central Asia. Kazakhstan is located in the North of it, Uzbekistan in the West, Tajikistan in the Southwest and China in the East. Agriculture is an important sector of economy of Kyrgyzstan. Agricultural products, mainly, wool, wheat, sugar, cotton, fruit and vegetables are actively participating in the growing economy of Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan is also rich in mineral resources. But unlikely other Central Asia countries, Kyrgyzstan’s credit is in minus in oil and gas reserves. Kyrgyzstan has substantial deposits of coal, gold, uranium and other valuable metals. The country’s sufficient production in hydroelectric energy is very visible factor for South Asian countries.

Analysis about Turkmenistan: Turkmenistan also known as Turkmenia, is a country of Central Asia. It shares border with Afghanistan in the Southeast, Iran in the South, Uzbekistan in the East and Kazakhstan in the north and northwest and the Caspian Sea in the West. It is wealthy in natural resources. Turkmenistan has fourth position in world ranking in natural gas reserves.

Production Proved reserves
Petroleum 180.39
(Thousands Barrels per day) 0.600
(Billion Barrels)
Gas 2232
(Billion Cubic Feet) 71,000
(Billion Cubic Feet)

Source: U.S Energy Information Administration

Analysis about Caspian Sea: Caspian is the world's largest inland sea. Its natural reserves diverted the attention of the world towards itself. The Great Game was breakout in 19th century between Great Britain and Russian Empire. However, New Great Game was started after the collapse of Soviet Union with the emergence of five independent states. Geographical location of Caspian Sea created very complex situation in the region. The Caspian has become a center of international attention in the last decade. To understand the "New Great Game" needs to understand the geography of Caspian Sea, the policy agenda of Caspian countries, the policy of intra-regional and extra-regional actors. Five littoral states, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan located clockwise around the Caspian Sea. All these actors and their behaviour made the scope of Caspian more complex and complicated.

The New Great Game:
The Great Game was the political rivalry between the British and Russian Empires in the Central Asia during the 19th Century. The New Great Game is a new term used to describe modern geopolitics. It also refers to neo-colonialism. However, it is a competition between regional and extra-regional powers. These players are encircling the oil and gas resources of the Central Asia. The major weak point of Central Asia is a landlocked region. The Central Asian countries are unable to construct the road, railway and pipeline networks. The great powers are investing in the region to achieve their goals. They are picking up natural resources oil, gas and precious minerals to grow their economy. The regional and great powers had focused their politics on the pipeline networks. The aim of individual power is to establish that route in Central Asia which provides more benefit to it.
As strategically, Caucasus region where Azerbaijan is located, has been focused and given more importance by West and U.S. for transportation of energy resources. In this region, there is a game of pipeline politics. Russian dominated pipelines are passing through this region, however, Washington’s objective is ultimately to weaken and destabilize Russia’s pipeline network and its various corridor links into the Western Europe energy market. The U.S have had succeeded to construct a pipeline to the Mediterranean, practically setup a new bloc with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.
In the meantime, EU energy security policy is in fluctuation. EU has rushed to secure their energy interest in the more coordinated area where they have to maintain influence and hold on the energy supply. While Russia's energy strategy seeks to make Europe increasingly dependent on Russian oil and gas. Moscow prefers to deal with the EU member states separately rather than as a group. These policies are undermining the EU for long-term energy policies.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization: SCO has six members China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and three observers India, Pakistan and Mongolia. SCO role has been increasing in past few years. SCO deals with economic cooperation among its member states. Also, SCO is a regional forum but not declared it as a military alliance. SCO seeks to jointly combat drug-trafficking, cross-border crimes, control of weapons trafficking and improvement of intelligence sharing. China and Russia are two influential members of SCO. Regarding this, China has increased its bilateral relations with CARs. Jointly, China and Russia are displacing U.S in the region. China aims to seek market for its product and to access reliable energy resources, while Russia aims to use the SCO to promote its anti-Western agenda.

European Union: European Union has become a more visible geopolitical player in Central Asia. However, EU considers itself as a strategic partner of Central Asian Republics. EU cannot ignore the importance of Central Asia. Central Asia is important for the future energy security. The EU has strengthened its relationship with the Central Asian countries. In June 2007, “EU and Central Asia: Strategy for a new partnership” has adopted by European Council. The regular meetings of EU and Central Asian Foreign Ministers and political dialogues have reinforced the cooperation in all sectors i.e. energy, transport, combating, drug trafficking etc. Also, EU is providing Economic and political assistance to Central Asian Republics.

United States: The current geopolitical game is difficult to understand. On one side, CARs has adopted welcome policy for all players. However, on other side, all players have been playing game of their own interests. U.S has also referred this geopolitical game to “Great Anti-Terrorist Game” that was led by U.S after 9/11. The event of 9/11 has brought some major changes in Geopolitical game of Central Asia. Economic and military supports are main instruments of U.S towards this region. Its huge oil and gas reserves, idea of democracy and free market economy made it important for U.S.

Available routes for Transportation:

i) Northern Route: Transportation of oil through Northern route occupied by Russia. It goes from Baku and Tengiz field of Western Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk, a Russian seaport on the Black sea. Before 2000, the Central Asian countries were depended on Russian pipeline network, but the Russia’s monopolistic and dominant policies diverted the CARs to search new exporting routes. Russia did not expand the capacity of the pipeline. However, foreign investment by regional and extra-regional powers had broken up the monopoly of Russia and established new transport corridors.

ii) Western Route: The Western route originates from Baku in Azerbaijan to Georgia port at Supsa on the Black Sea. The Baku-Suspa pipeline passing near the Armenian populated Azerbaijan’s territory has security concerns. The other option in this route is Baku-Tbilisi Ceyhan pipeline which is considered the East-West pipeline. This pipeline is fully supported by U.S. It is 1,768 km long. It connects Baku with Mediterranean Sea at Ceyhan, a port of Turkey.

iii) Southern Route: The Southern route is proposed and supported by Iran. This route would deliver oil and gas to Persian Gulf through Iran. But this route is strongly opposed by U.S. The route is still under consideration and unfunctional.

iv) Eastern Route: The Eastern route goes through across Kazakhstan to China. This route is in great favour of China. This route has connected China with two oil field of Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan. Jointly China and Kazakhstan invested to establish this route. Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline is 3200 Km long pipeline. It also considers largest pipeline of the region. Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline is also proposed to construct, which goes parallel with the existed Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline. However, the Western countries are not pleasant on the pipeline network which goes towards East. China shares its border with South Asia. It is also possible for Kazakh oil to reach South Asia via China. It is also proposed by China for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to join this pipeline route. Through this pipeline, China has searched nearest and reliable energy source while Kazakhstan has got direct access to market. This is the safest route of the others.

Conclusion:
With the emergence of newly states, great powers hastened towards Central Asian Republics. At that time, newly states could not be able to determine their specific foreign policies but with the passage of time they had learnt the behaviour of great powers. Their economy based on Oil and Gas production but due to their major constraints, they are depended on neighboring countries in supply of Oil and Gas out of the region. However, the current geopolitics over the Central Asia is very complicated to understand. It is very difficult to examine whose one is leading the game in Central Asia. But it has been observed that due to this geopolitical game, CARs have been suffering because they had not got benefits which were expected. After passing of 18 years, the supply of oil out of the region is very low.

There is competition between two forces for stretching Central Asia towards themselves. One from West led by Western countries and U.S and second from East, led by China and Russia. Both of them have invested in Central Asia to grow their influences. Both of them are playing game of their own interests. In the whole scenario, the behaviour and approaches of Central Asian Republics are appreciable. They have succeeded to maintain equilibrium in the relations between regional and extra-regional powers. Besides diplomatic relations, Central Asian countries have focused and diversified themselves towards their goals which are leading them to emerge close economic and political ties with Western countries. It is hereby recommended that the Central Asian countries should determine their specific foreign policy with understanding of the current game.