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Ukraine's New Problems

Tamerlan Vahabov - 9/28/2010

If we aspire change in Ukraine, we need to distantiate ourselves from the personalities of Yulia Timoshenko, Viktor Yanukovych, and others. Active lobbying of such reforms as legislation on local elections and the expansion of Presidential power provides strong reasons to believe that the Party of Regions aims at long-term stay in power. What is really important now is to start looking at the situation more broadly. The current electoral fatigue from traditional parties creates good opportunities for new brands to emerge and mobilize substantial support. One example thereof is the electoral success of Canada’s Reforms Party in 1993 elections to the House of Commons. Contrary to expectations, the party, which was only formed in 1987, was able to win 52 seats with 19 percent of national votes. The main reason for such success was that a highly popular Conservative Party failed to fulfill the voters’ expectations, thus creating an immense opportunity for voter mobilization for the Reforms Party. Ukraine needs a political party with similar strength, pool of skilled political entrepreneurs and knowledge brokers in its ranks.

Troublesome management of the country coupled with the past political uncertainties in Ukraine stimulates substantial apathy among the electorate and disapproval of the government. According to the survey conducted by Razumkov center, disapproval rates of the president and prime minister grew from 32 percent in April to an impressive 50 percent in August. Moreover, in April, 42.7% of the respondents believed that the country was on the right track to development while in August the rate fell to 25.6%. Efforts to empower the president and change local elections rule are among the possible reasons of citizen disapproval.

Another problem is Ukraine’s energy sector. So far, unreformed and hyper-centralized Naftogaz of Ukraine is a stumbling block for Western energy companies willing to invest in Ukraine. Proper management, reforms and Western investment would not only make Ukraine’s energy sector more efficient but also help it become more environmentally friendly. This is not a complete list of problems with management, country’s resources, and public policy under the current government.

However, these problems alone can be a good enough reason to affect large segments of Ukrainians. Elderly people or young technocrats concerned with environment, politically active and ambitious youth, people associated with the NGOs that lobby various environmental and constitutional policies are all potential segments of population for making change in Ukraine. Their potential can be converted into a strong political force to pressure the government, create trust networks, and establish clear channels of communication with the government. Sustainable and consistent work with all these constituents is what Ukraine clearly lacks.

There needs to be a political force in each area of interest, be it constitutional, environmental or energy field, that would work with these people. Any new political party needs to be well-prepared to undertake such serious projects as converting political potential of different segments of population into a dynamic political force. The main advantage of Ukraine’s new political brand and party should be a demonstrated will for accountability to the electorate. Accountability would mean the ability to send precise and clear political messages to voters in each area of electoral interest. They can engage in tasks of more traditional interest groups, namely, such specific policy solutions as environmental and green projects. They can explain problems and solution projects to various target audiences and then assist in implementing the needed political action starting at the grassroots level.

Reaching out to these groups of people is key for success of politically active groups and entrepreneurs. Despite the fact that current government’s policies have serious implications for Ukrainian democracy, economy and environment, they also create opportunities for making a change. The opportunity lies in the fatigue that people have from traditional high-saliency political issues in Ukraine (East-West division, Timoshenko-Yushchenko, Timoshenko-Yanukovych stand-offs, Russia-Ukraine gas wars, etc.).

Such issues as environmental concerns, problems in education and health care systems, badly needed energy reforms, as well as youth problems could well be a hook for an emerging political party in Ukraine with the grassroots outreach. New political parties building their platform around these issues could well provide a structure for making these traditionally low-saliency political problems into more visible and, most importantly, alternative concerns. Such parties could inevitably leave a legacy of strong political activism and citizen participation in Ukraine. These issue areas can be the first step in cultivating new political culture in Ukraine. It would then expand to other no less important areas such as constitutional changes, democracy and Ukraine’s European integration.