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A Glimmer of Hope as Lebanon's Political Stalemate Recedes

Samer Zouehid - 5/2/2005

After months of infighting between the different factions, Lebanon seems to be regaining some resemblance of stability. The appointment of Prime Minister Najib Mikati and the formation of a new cabinet helped ease tensions and smooth the way for elections, called for the 29th of May. Also, it was confirmed that Saadeddine Hariri, son of slain PM Rafik Hariri will run in May's parliamentary elections. Saad Hariri along with other MP's running in the upcoming elections will face major challenges in maintaining the current unity created through his father's death, although events last week looked promising. Mikati's appointment represented the first signs of reconciliation between the loyalists and the opposition, as there were concessions made to both sides. For the opposition, Mikati promised to hold elections on time, and both Major general Jamil Sayyid, director of the Interior Minister and General Ali Hajj, head of internal security services stepped down, a key demand of the opposition. For the Loyalists as well as securing Mikati as Prime Minister, a close friend of the Assad family, they have retained key cabinet positions. Mahmoud Hammoud was retained as foreign minister and Elias al-Murr as defense minister and deputy prime minister, both of which are close aids to President Emile Lahoud. Unfortunately this picture of serenity is a mirage, as when one looks closer this mosaic bares many cracks which could shatter this promising fragile momentum that has been unraveling.

A poll conducted by the Arab American Institute and the bickering over a new electoral law gives us an insight into the potential pitfalls that lie ahead in the coming weeks. Not only does the poll suggest major differences among the Lebanese people on key issues, but the ongoing debate over the new electoral law could see new alliances emerge form the debris of current coalitions.

The Poll revealed an overwhelming consensus among the opposition and Loyalist parties to implement the Taif Accord through national dialogue. Maronite, Sunni's and Shiites showed around an eighty percent support for elections on time. However on much thornier issues such as the disarmament of Hezbollah and international interference, there was a shocking divide among sects. Seventy-nine percent of Shiites disagreed with disarming Hezbollah, while only 38 percent of Sunni's and eight percent of Maronites disagree with such an action. With regard to interference by France and America in Lebanon's political affairs, Maronites welcome it while Sunnis and Shiites reject it. Hopefully Lebanon's politicians will heath the warning of this poll. The current political parties should fathom through their differences in order to maintain stability in this fragile country. Politicians and parties from different sects need to have the foresight to come together and create a cohesive national policy towards these issues, one which shows compromise yet is suitable to all factions of Lebanese society. The current opposition although united in their outrage at the assassination of former premier Rafik Hariri, has shown little enterprise in formulating policies, a floor that Walid Jumblatt acknowledged earlier this month.

President Bush has been on the offensive this week, renewing calls for Syria to withdraw and Hezbollah to disarm. Its not so much the calls which are surprising, but the rhetoric used by Bush shows that he is not content with Syria just withdrawing from Lebanon, but he wishes to humiliate them in the process, and send a message to his adversaries in the so called axis of evil that America is still a force to recon with, despite finding it self in a quagmire that is Iraq. If Bush carries on demanding Hezbollah disarm Lebanon will be thrust into a debate it can ill afford, as if different sects come to the forefront of this debate it will divert its attention from more immediate issues and stir up unwanted divisions among Lebanon's political elite. If America deemed Syria's presence in Lebanon as a destabilizing force, then hopefully it will have the intuitiveness to re-evaluate its role in Lebanon's affairs.

The current deadlock over a new electoral law is a cause for concern, as opposition figures disagree on the shape of this new law, the impact it will have on the opposition will only be known in upcoming weeks. Already Jumblatt is distancing himself from the Qornet Shehwan gathering, who prefer the 2000 electoral law dividing Lebanon into small districts, know as qada. Jumblatt prefers a medium size constituency over a small qada. The loyalists, especially Amal and Hezbollah have called for an electoral law of proportional representation in large districts, known as mohafazat. It seems hardly unlikely that these stances will change in the coming weeks, as a compromise is not in their interest, as the law they support represents the one most beneficial for their party. A third option represents a compromise between the two stances, however this would mean delaying the elections as it's a formula unknown to Lebanon. This would be unacceptable to all sides, so for now deadlock on this issue seems inevitable. A committee of opposition and loyalists lawmakers will be formed to discuss the shape of the new law. This forum will provide an insight into the tides of change occurring in the countries political elite. As political parties begin to maneuver in anticipation of the upcoming elections, issues such as the form of the new electoral law will determine the fate of existing coalitions, and surely define the creation of new partnerships. One wonders how stable policies which help to create national unity can be sustained while such maneuverings take place.