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Turkish-Armenian “football diplomacy” has an “extra time”

Vahan Dilanyan - 2/17/2011

Turkish-Armenian rapprochement could resume after Parliamentary elections in Turkey in 2011

After the elections Turkish authorities will not be threatened by the loss of votes and will be ready for courageous steps on the normalization of the relations with Armenia.

“In 21st century the existence of closed borders in Europe is not a normal phenomenon,"-British Ambassador to Armenia Charles Lonsdale told journalists on Tuesday.

Official London still hopes that suspended talks between Armenia and Turkey will continue.

The optimism of Western leaders towards Armenian-Turkish reconciliation seeped out in April 2010 when official Yerevan suspended the ratification of two accords signed in 2009 on establishing diplomatic relations and normalizing relations with Turkey.

Turkey and Armenia started their dialogue when Armenian President, Serge Sargsyan, invited his Turkish counterpart, Abdullah Gul, to attend a Turkish-Armenian soccer match in Yerevan in September of 2008.

Armenia halted the approval of the accords because of Turkey’s lack of political will to normalize relations “without preconditions”.
Due to Azeri distress over the process, Ankara brought preconditions to the negotiation table, mainly demanding Yerevan to make concessions in the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution.
Armenian authorities stated that linking of Karabakh settlement issue to the Armenian-Turkish talks would harm both of the processes.

Turkey has kept the border closed with Armenia since 1993 as a sign of approval and support in favor of Azerbaijan - in the context of the conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.

However, the current Turkish “behavior of preconditions” contains some other dimensions in addition to appeasing the “jealousy” of Azerbaijan toward the Turkish rapprochement with Armenia.

Turkish foreign policy is dictated by domestic trends

The thesis, “foreign policy is a continuation of domestic policy” is typical to the Turkish case, since the ruling AK Party (AKP) in Turkey is affected by the positions of its voters while conducting steps in the international arena, no matter if they may contradict the foreign policy interests of Turkey.

Though Turkey is considered as a major American ally in the Middle East as well as a member of NATO, official Ankara has shown several times its non-neutral position to a very sensitive US foreign policy issue, namely, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The “Turkish march” of criticizing Israel that was started by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Davos, was activated after the municipal elections in 2009.

In these elections, the AKP, for the first time in its history registered a decrease in votes (39-40%). Although they won the election, they still in a sense suffered a political defeat.
Turkish leaders then felt a need to satisfy the voters’ interests, since there was a growing trend of support toward the Nationalist and Kemalist parties.

The solution was found in the combination of the “zero problems with neighbors” doctrine of Foreign Minister, Ahmed Davutoglu, with Turkish nationalistic sentiments. This has helped boost the popularity and prestige of the AKP in the eyes of Turkish society.
The passing of judgment on “Israeli occupation”, the rapprochement with Russia and subsequent cold shouldering to the US, and finally the preconditions presented to Armenia of “withdrawal of troops from Nagorno-Karabakh”, are all in line with that very strategy.

Toward Parliamentary elections

Turkey didn’t ratify the protocols since doing so would harm its public authority and image.
Although, in recent years there has been a remarkable positive change of Turkish public opinion toward Armenians, which has been developed by public diplomacy and affected by the assassination of Turkish-Armenian journalist, Hrant Dink (A demonstration of thousands of Turks with slogan: “We are all Hrant, We are all Armenians”; A Turkish “I apologize” campaign to Armenians), the majority of Turks, according to the recent survey, conducted by the Genar research company, are still against the potential opening of the border with Armenia and the normalization of diplomatic ties with that country.

In preparation for the Parliamentary elections, which will be held in the first week of June in 2011, Turkish authorities have been continuing the rhetoric of “Armenia’s aggression against Azerbaijan”.
Addressing the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) on January 26, Abdullah Gül reconfirmed the Turkish position over establishing dialogue with Armenia. Recalling that he was the first Turkish president to visit Armenia, Gul said Turkey wants to normalize relations with its neighbor, but the occupation of Azerbaijani lands must cease.

That rhetoric has gone so far that Erdogan even threatened to forcefully expel all the illegal Armenian immigrants from Turkey last year.

The lack of political will to normalize relations with Armenia will undoubtedly remain active until the elections. After which there then will not be a risk of losing voters, Ankara will be ready for courageous steps on normalization process with Armenia.
Turkish leaders should use the “extra time” to resume the football diplomacy with Armenia by establishing diplomatic relations in order to allow the mutually beneficial and prosperous coexistence of two Nations.

The Armenian-Turkish dialogue is one of the exceptional cases where superpowers’ interests coincide, and therefore the process can not be simply aborted.