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Has Obama been caught flatfooted by the crisis Bahrain?

Trevor Westra - 3/18/2011

Political instability continues to rock the Kingdom of Bahrain, home of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet - a critical force in the Pentagon's wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and a tactical deterrent to the threat of a nuclear Iran.


Motivating US interests in Bahrain at present are fears that Iranian meddling in the political turmoil there could undo key military, banking, and energy interests in the broader Gulf region. As Mideast scholar Michael Rubin recently noted, Bahrain is a decisive "flash point" between the United States, Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Ever since the British left the tiny island-state in the 1970s, Bahrain has been ruled by the Khalifa royal family, a Sunni Muslim dynasty dating back to the pre-Islamic Arab tribe of the Annizah. Today, despite a population that is nearly two-thirds Shiite Muslim, members of the Sunni royal family continue to control most of the country's economy, government, and judiciary.


On the ground, the predominantly Shiite protesters are calling for a series of modern reforms, most hoping to implement some form of constitutional monarchy which they hope will lead to greater freedoms and representation.


In a determined effort to quell the rebellion Tuesday, Bahrain's embattled King Hamad imposed a state of emergency in the country as thousands of armed-forces arrived in the capital of Manama from neighboring-state members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.


Since last week, the city has seen increasingly violent clashes between protesters and the regime's exclusively Suuni troops. On Tuesday, thousands marched to the Saudi embassy in hopes of pressuring the staunch regional power to withdraw its forces. This comes as protesters continue to occupy Pearl Square in the heart of Manama's financial district.


Because American interests in the Persian Gulf and beyond hinge on stability in Bahrain, White House support for democracy on the tiny island-state has been notably lukewarm. While allied military forces seek to protect the country's infrastructure and preserve the Khalifa's rule, the pretense of Saudi troops risks further confrontation with protesters and a possible push-back from Iranian officials in Tehran.


As a result, it is becoming increasingly evident that the Obama administration is not yet capable of making bold new strategies for American's foreign policies in the region. The stakes in Bahrain couldn't be higher, yet White House officials appear flatfooted, banking on old powers holding the old order as a major military allie in the region risks imploding.